Baylor at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -13 (45.0) (-500) Open: -13.0
Iowa State 43 - Baylor: 21 (Big 12)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -3.5 (SP+ ISU -2)
Projected Score: BAY: 24 - ISU: 28 (52)
ISU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
BAY Travel: 748 miles

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	31.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	32.6	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	27.4	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	20.2	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
ISU Defense	13	20.2	18.8	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
ISU Offense	13	27.4	32.3	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 Iowa State: 10.3

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 28
Baylor 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Iowa State	43	Baylor	21	Iowa State -13	Iowa State	45.0	Over
2023	10/28	Baylor	18	Iowa State	30	Iowa State -3	Iowa State	47.0	Over
2022	09/24	Iowa State	24	Baylor	31	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	45.0	Over
2021	09/25	Baylor	31	Iowa State	29	Iowa State -7	Baylor	46.0	Over
2020	11/07	Iowa State	38	Baylor	31	Iowa State -14	Baylor	46.5	Over
2019	09/28	Baylor	23	Iowa State	21	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	55.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa State	28	Baylor	14	Iowa State -17	Baylor	51.0	Under
2017	11/18	Baylor	13	Iowa State	23	Iowa State -7.5	Iowa State	50.0	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa State	42	Baylor	45	Baylor -17	Iowa State	62.0	Over
2015	10/24	Baylor	45	Iowa State	27	Baylor -37	Iowa State	74.5	Under
2014	09/27	Iowa State	28	Baylor	49	Baylor -22	Iowa State	0
2013	10/19	Baylor	71	Iowa State	7	Baylor -33	Baylor	0
2012	10/27	Iowa State	35	Baylor	21
2011	10/08	Baylor	49	Iowa State	26
2009	10/17	Iowa State	24	Baylor	10
2008	10/11	Baylor	38	Iowa State	10
2005	10/08	Iowa State	13	Baylor	23
2004	10/23	Baylor	25	Iowa State	26
2001	09/29	Iowa State	41	Baylor	0
2000	09/29	Baylor	17	Iowa State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	10	6	6 Overs
Baylor	10	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 8	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 12	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2

(#22) BAY at (#23) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#22	#23
SP+SP+	#38	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#81
OffenseOff	#26	#81
DefenseDef	#110	#77
Spec TeamsST	#2	#73
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#97

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

Iowa State Notes(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#77
SuccessSuc	#102	#36
ExplosiveExp	#57	#88
PPAPPA	#90	#32
PowerPwr	#20	#37
SP+SP+	#25	#24
Pts POPPO	#118	#27
HavocHav	#98	#76

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#46
Run ExplRExp	#53	#28
PPAExp	#101	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#20
TackleTak	-	#114

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#116
PPAExp	#90	#74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#129
F7 HavocF7	#103	#123
DB HavocDB	#77	#9

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#110
SuccessSuc	#119	#118
ExplosiveExp	#1	#120
PPAPPA	#57	#130
PowerPwr	#42	#30
SP+SP+	#44	#63
Pts POPPO	#83	#116
HavocHav	#35	#55

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#51	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#98
Run ExplRExp	#5	#121
PPAExp	#126	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#35
TackleTak	-	#87

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#107
PPAExp	#25	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#113
F7 HavocF7	#44	#53
DB HavocDB	#44	#75

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Iowa State -13.0 (45.0)
Iowa State won vs Baylor this year (43-21)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2024 (43-21)
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2023 (30-18)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5