Tarleton State at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview
Tarleton State logo   Tarleton State Texans at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -33.5 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Baylor 45 - Tarleton State: 3

 
Texans (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (30 - 27 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Baylor -13  (SP+ BAY -8)
BAY Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tarleton State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Tarleton State at Baylor+33.553.5L 3 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tarleton State's Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%300%000%000%270%0%0000
BAY#90 (.15)39% (102)31.140% (107)2.99 (91)11539% (90)2633.12 (118)#130 (.32)46% (118)32.646% (98)47% (123)4.36 (116)28.91.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Offense130300%00000000%0%0%0%0%
BAY Defense1232.627.945.7%4.361.3 - - - - - 54%45%46%47%17%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Defense127270%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
BAY Offense1231.129.639.5%3.121.3203781152633.346%54%40%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tarleton State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Baylor1231:4219.836%46%4.128.91.31.351.5228.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Offense10%0%000000%0%0
BAY Defense1254% (114)46% (98) - - - - .24 (115)3.27 (103)70% (51)11% (53)1.16 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
BAY Offense1246% (99)40% (107)34.4114.83.313 (108).09 (101)2.99 (91)74% (63)12% (103)1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
BAY Defense1245% (21)47% (123) - - - - - - 7 (111).47 (131)1.7 (107)30% (101)38% (129).52 (130)6% (75)2.2 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
BAY Offense1254% (31)39% (90)21.936.82637.11215 (96)7 (21).22 (90)1.6 (79)34% (109)26% (103).18 (111)6% (77)1.8 (123)

Tarleton State's Power Ratings
Tarleton State's Power Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Offense Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Tarleton State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Tarleton State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Tarleton State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 196.23
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Baylor: 8.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785  #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51  #30
2024 Talent Rating: 383.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2  #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Tarleton State Scoring
Offense: 30 PPG
Offense on Road: 30
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Tarleton State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 35
Tarleton State 22

Projected Total Points: 56
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Baylor45Tarleton State3Baylor -33.5Baylor53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor110 Overs
Tarleton State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#) TAR at (#22) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTARBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #22
SP+SP+NR #38
Perf GradeGradeNR #51
OffenseOffNR #26
DefenseDefNR #110
Spec TeamsSTNR #2
TalentTalNR #43
Blue ChipsBC%NR #53
Baylor Notes
(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report
Tarleton State on Offense
CategoryCat
TAR OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #110
SuccessSucNR #118
ExplosiveExpNR #120
PPAPPANR #130
PowerPwrNR #30
SP+SP+NR #63
Pts POPPONR #116
HavocHavNR #55
Tarleton State Run Game
CategoryCat
TAR OffBAY Def
Run GameRunNR #66
Run SuccessRSucNR #98
Run ExplRExpNR #121
PPAExpNR #115
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #103
Stuff RateStuffNR #35
TackleTak -  #87
Tarleton State Pass Game
CategoryCat
TAR OffBAY Def
Pass GamePassNR #120
Pass SuccessPSucNR #123
Pass ExplPExlNR #107
PPAExpNR #131
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #113
F7 HavocF7NR #53
DB HavocDBNR #75
Baylor on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBAY OffTAR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #26NR
SuccessSuc #102NR
ExplosiveExp #57NR
PPAPPA #90NR
PowerPwr #20NR
SP+SP+ #25NR
Pts POPPO #118NR
HavocHav #98NR
Baylor Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BAY OffTAR Def
Run GameRun #37NR
Run SuccessRSuc #107NR
Run ExplRExp #53NR
PPAExp #101NR
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #91NR
Stuff RateStuff #80NR
TackleTak - NR
Baylor Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBAY OffTAR Def
Pass GamePass #71NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #90NR
Pass ExplPExl #79NR
PPAExp #90NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #52NR
F7 HavocF7 #103NR
DB HavocDB #77NR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

TAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Baylor -33.5 (53.5)
Baylor won vs Tarleton State this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Tarleton State in 2024 (45-3)

  
TAR's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Tarleton State's Full Roster

TAR's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caimyn Layne62100
Bam Smith50000
Kasyus Kurns50001
Ty Rawls51000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caimyn Layne62100
Caden Holt20000
Omar Emmons10000
Jaylen Jackson10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kasyus Kurns50001
Caimyn Layne62100
Brandon Tolvert20000

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)45567512.635
Monaray Baldwin27478517.746
Hal Presley31429313.853

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Treven Ma'ae407431
Keaton Thomas978420
Garmon Randolph335420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)1310010
Matt Jones1019456
Caden Jenkins250004