Tarleton State at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview
Tarleton State logo Tarleton State Texans at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -33.5 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Baylor 45 - Tarleton State: 3

 
Texans (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 3 - 45 (3 - 45 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Baylor -13   (SP+ BAY -8)
BAY Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tarleton State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Tarleton State at Baylor+33.553.5L 3 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tarleton State's Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%30%000%000%450%0%0000
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TAR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Offense1330%00000000%0%0%0%0%
BAY Defense1326.719.839.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TAR Defense145450%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
BAY Offense1334.437.346.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tarleton State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Offense10%0%000000%0%0
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TAR Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Tarleton State's Power Ratings
Tarleton State's Power Rating: #NR
Tarleton State's Offense Rating: #NR
Tarleton State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Tarleton State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Tarleton State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Tarleton State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Tarleton State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tarleton State:    Baylor: 8.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Tarleton State Scoring
Offense: 3 PPG
Offense on Road: 3
Defense: 45 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Tarleton State's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 33
Tarleton State 20

Total Points: 54

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Baylor45Tarleton State3BaylorBaylor -33.5Baylor53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor110 Overs
Tarleton State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) Tarleton State Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -


Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Tarleton State Highlights

Tarleton State Deficiencies
Tarleton State has a really bad Offense
Tarleton State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBAYTAR
OverallOver#37—
OffenseOff#24—
DefenseDef#90—
Special TeamsST#2—
PassingPass#56—
RushingRush#25—
Run BlockRBLK#31—
Pass BlockPBLK#49—
Route RunningWR Rt#21—
TacklingTkl#75—
Run DefenseR Def#51—
Pass Rush DefPRush#96—
Coverage DefCov#98—

Rematch from Week 1
Baylor -33.5 (53.5)
Baylor won vs Tarleton State this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Tarleton State last year (45-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TAR | BAY
Depth Chart: TAR | BAY
Rosters: TAR | BAY
(#22) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Baylor Highlights
Baylor offense is efficent (#59)
Baylor offense is good in red zone (#64)
Baylor does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#31)

Baylor has a good run defense (#108)
Baylor has a great TO Margin (#82)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#37)


  
Tarleton State's OC
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Tarleton State's Full Roster
Tarleton State's DC
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caimyn Layne62100
Bam Smith50000
Kasyus Kurns50001
Ty Rawls51000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caimyn Layne62100
Caden Holt20000
Omar Emmons10000
Jaylen Jackson10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kasyus Kurns50001
Caimyn Layne62100
Brandon Tolvert20000

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)45567512.635
Monaray Baldwin27478517.746
Hal Presley31429313.853

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Treven Ma'ae407431
Keaton Thomas978420
Garmon Randolph335420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)1310010
Matt Jones1019456
Caden Jenkins250004