Baylor at TCU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
TCU -13.0 (62.0) (-575) Open: -3.5 | 58.5
TCU 42 - Baylor: 17 (Big 12)

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 23 - 33 (28 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY 2nd straight Road Game
TCU 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: TCU -16.5 (SP+ TCU -16)
Projected Score: BAY: 22 - TCU: 39 (61)
TCU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
BAY Travel: 81 miles

Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

TCU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	TCU vs Colorado	-20.5	59.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	TCU vs Nicholls	-41.5	59.5	W 41 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	TCU at Houston	-7.5	64.0	W 36 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	TCU vs SMU	-7.0	63.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	TCU vs West Virginia	-14.0	52.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	TCU at Iowa State	-6.5	52.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	TCU vs BYU	-5.0	52.5	W 44 - 11	O	Y
Sat 10/21	TCU at Kansas State	+5.5	60.0	L 3 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	TCU at Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	TCU vs Texas	+13.0	56.0	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/18	TCU vs Baylor	-13.0	62.0	W 42 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	TCU at Oklahoma	+12.5	66.5	L 45 - 69	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	23.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	33.3	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
TCU	#25 (.28)	47% (16)	31.3	49% (18)	3.35 (23)	155	47% (20)	312	3.91 (69)	#96 (.23)	44% (89)	27.8	43% (70)	45% (112)	3.91 (78)	53.6	1.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	23.1	27.5	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
TCU Defense	12	27.8	21.3	43.6%	3.91	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	45%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	33.3	41.3	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
TCU Offense	12	31.3	35.7	47.4%	3.91	1.6	25	467	155	312	4.6	42%	57%	49%	47%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
TCU	12	27:21	25	46%	50%	6.2	53.6	1.6	1	5	1.8	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
TCU Defense	12	51% (76)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.16 (81)	3.16 (82)	78% (100)	8% (117)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
TCU Offense	12	42% (119)	49% (18)	33.8	154.5	4.6	19 (69)	.22 (29)	3.35 (23)	79% (26)	7% (6)	0.96 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
TCU Defense	12	49% (59)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.35 (106)	1.6 (86)	31% (95)	35% (122)	.37 (98)	5% (119)	2 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
TCU Offense	12	57% (16)	47% (20)	26.6	41.9	312.2	7.5	11.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.4 (27)	1.6 (63)	31% (54)	42% (4)	.61 (6)	7% (94)	2 (73)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95 TCU: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8 TCU: 7.5

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 8 #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 31 #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.3

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 39
Baylor 22

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 35
Baylor 26

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
TCU 35
Baylor 25

Total Points: 60

TCU Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	TCU	42	Baylor	36	TCU -3.5	TCU	66.5	Over
2024	11/02	Baylor	37	TCU	34	Baylor -2.5	Baylor	64.0	Over
2023	11/18	TCU	42	Baylor	17	TCU -13.0	TCU	62.0	Under
2022	11/19	Baylor	28	TCU	29	TCU -2	Baylor	58.0	Under
2021	11/06	TCU	30	Baylor	28	Baylor -7.5	TCU	57.0	Over
2020	10/31	Baylor	23	TCU	33	TCU -3.0	TCU	0
2019	11/09	TCU	23	Baylor	29	Baylor -3.0	Baylor	48.5	Over
2018	11/17	Baylor	9	TCU	16	Baylor -1	TCU	50.5	Under
2017	11/24	TCU	45	Baylor	22	TCU -25.5	Baylor	53.0	Over
2016	11/05	Baylor	22	TCU	62	Baylor -9	TCU	65.0	Over
2015	11/27	TCU	28	Baylor	21	Baylor -2	TCU	75.0	Under
2014	10/11	Baylor	61	TCU	58	Baylor -11	TCU	0
2013	11/30	TCU	38	Baylor	41	Baylor -14	TCU	0
2012	10/13	Baylor	21	TCU	49
2011	09/02	Baylor	50	TCU	48
2010	09/18	TCU	45	Baylor	10
2007	09/01	TCU	27	Baylor	0
2006	09/03	Baylor	7	TCU	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	13	9	6 Overs
Baylor	5	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 8	7 - 6	3 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 10	6 - 7	2 - 4	4 - 3

(#108) BAY at (#44) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	TCU
Power RatePwr	#108	#44
SP+SP+	#98	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#51
OffenseOff	#82	#38
DefenseDef	#123	#73
Spec TeamsST	#18	#61
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#24

Baylor Injury Report

TCU Injury Report

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#73
SuccessSuc	#102	#89
ExplosiveExp	#57	#89
PPAPPA	#90	#96
PowerPwr	#99	#97
SP+SP+	#78	#57
Pts POPPO	#118	#78
HavocHav	#98	#123

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#70
Run ExplRExp	#53	#72
PPAExp	#101	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#82
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#80
TackleTak	-	#75

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#86
PPAExp	#90	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#12	#119
F7 HavocF7	#103	#117
DB HavocDB	#77	#119

TCU on Offense


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#38	#123
SuccessSuc	#16	#118
ExplosiveExp	#51	#120
PPAPPA	#25	#130
PowerPwr	#32	#127
SP+SP+	#27	#105
Pts POPPO	#69	#116
HavocHav	#19	#55

TCU Run Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#41	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#98
Run ExplRExp	#93	#121
PPAExp	#29	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#35
TackleTak	-	#103

TCU Pass Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#63	#107
PPAExp	#27	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#96
F7 HavocF7	#6	#53
DB HavocDB	#94	#75

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 12
TCU -13.0 (62.0)
TCU won vs Baylor this year (42-17)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat TCU last year (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)
TCU beat Baylor in 2022 (29-28)

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	186	299	62%	2210	15	9	7.4
Chandler Morris	132	202	65%	1528	12	5	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emani Bailey	223	1209	8	5.4	74
Chandler Morris	45	249	3	5.5	32
Trey Sanders (Tr)	48	176	6	3.7	18
Savion Williams	11	62	0	5.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Savion Williams	41	573	4	14.0	42
John Paul Richardson	46	536	3	11.7	59
Jared Wiley	47	520	8	11.1	81
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)	32	397	1	12.4	29

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Shadrach Banks	57	9	1	2	0
Nook Bradford	53	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Paul Oyewale	21	5	3	1	0
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Caleb Fox	25	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Josh Newton	29	0	5
Nook Bradford	53	0	5
Mark Perry	52	2	4