Baylor at UCF - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 31st 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY 2nd straight Road Game
UCF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Baylor -2 (SP+ BAY -2.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 30 - UCF: 28 (58)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
BAY Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (24 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor at Auburn	+13
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-25.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-12.5
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+3.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	-2
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+16
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+22
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+7

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

UCF's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/3	UCF vs Bethune-Cookman	-21
Sat 9/12	UCF at Pittsburgh	+13
Sat 9/19	UCF vs Georgia State	-22
Sat 9/26	UCF vs TCU	+8
Sat 10/3	UCF at Houston	+11.5
Sat 10/10	UCF at Oklahoma State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	UCF vs BYU	+15
Sat 10/31	UCF vs Baylor	+2
Sat 11/7	UCF at Kansas	+6
Sat 11/14	UCF vs Arizona State	+3.5
Sat 11/21	UCF vs Iowa State	+4
Sat 11/28	UCF at Colorado	-3

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9
UCF	#88 (.14)	39% (107)	24.3	39% (111)	2.61 (126)	158	40% (93)	221	3.49 (94)	#51 (.12)	44% (95)	23.6	47% (116)	40% (54)	3.52 (55)	57.2	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2
UCF Defense	12	23.6	15.7	43.7%	3.52	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	40%	16%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18
UCF Offense	12	24.3	32.6	39.1%	3.49	1.5	18	379	158	221	4.9	45%	53%	39%	40%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5
UCF	12	29:55	18.2	34%	56%	7.6	57.2	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.1	2	28.4

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)
UCF Defense	12	54% (110)	47% (116)	-	-	-	-	.12 (84)	3.06 (101)	85% (132)	10% (46)	0.88 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)
UCF Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (111)	32.3	158.2	4.9	19 (26)	.11 (68)	2.61 (126)	62% (123)	11% (107)	1.25 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)
UCF Defense	12	45% (28)	40% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.16 (28)	1.4 (19)	31% (81)	25% (16)	.11 (7)	6% (62)	1.7 (5)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)
UCF Offense	12	53% (30)	40% (93)	20.8	33.6	220.8	6.6	10.6	12 (114)	12 (34)	.18 (104)	1.5 (102)	33% (105)	24% (126)	.19 (116)	7% (92)	2.3 (9)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 2.84 #53
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.66 #47
Baylor's Defense Rating: 15.82 #60
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 2.84 UCF: 0.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 UCF: -1.2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.24 #71
UCF's Offense Rating: 6.98 #88
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.30 #56
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #32
UCF's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 30
UCF 28

Projected Total Points: 58

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Baylor	30	UCF	3	Baylor -3	Baylor	58.5	Under
2023	09/30	UCF	35	Baylor	36	UCF -8	Baylor	56.5	Over
2013	01/01	Baylor	42	UCF	52	Baylor -17	UCF	74.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	2 Overs
Baylor	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#53) BAY at (#71) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#71
SP+SP+	#71	#76
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#37	#84
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#32

Baylor Injury Report

UCF Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#95
ExplosiveExp	#53	#5
PPAPPA	#49	#51
PowerPwr	#47	#56
SP+SP+	#32	#51
Pts POPPO	#69	#55
HavocHav	#56	#54

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#116
Run ExplRExp	#99	#28
PPAExp	#44	#84
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#112
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#19
PPAExp	#67	#28
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#46
DB HavocDB	#86	#62

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#107	#104
ExplosiveExp	#11	#15
PPAPPA	#88	#81
PowerPwr	#88	#60
SP+SP+	#98	#110
Pts POPPO	#94	#124
HavocHav	#106	#126

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#107
Run ExplRExp	#1	#68
PPAExp	#68	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#126	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#13
PPAExp	#104	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#131
DB HavocDB	#92	#86

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat UCF last year (30-3)
Baylor beat UCF in 2023 (36-35)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39
Tony Livingston (Tr)	11	119	2	10.8	38

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Reggie Bush	11	0	0	0	2

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alonza Barnett	216	370	58%	2806	23	8	7.6
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	164	263	62%	1742	9	6	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landen Chambers (Tr)	242	1273	10	5.3	53
Alonza Barnett	127	589	15	4.6	58
Duke Watson (Tr)	49	158	1	3.2	15
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	52	114	5	2.2	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Derry	73	1101	13	15.1	75
Duane Thomas Jr.	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade	43	523	5	12.2	83
Jonathan Bibbs (Tr)	26	383	3	14.7	68

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Rashad Henry (Tr)	51	3	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
R.J. Jackson	24	3	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Bellamy	27	0	0	0	8
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Antoine Jackson	39	1	0	0	4