Baylor at Arizona State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils

Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ASU coming off BYE
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arizona State -4.5 (SP+ ASU -3)
Projected Score: BAY: 27 - ASU: 32 (59)
ASU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 872 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Sun Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (22 - 16)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#37)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor at Auburn	+13
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-25.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-12.5
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+3.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	-2
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+16
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+22
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+7

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Arizona State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Arizona State vs Morgan State	-27.5
Sat 9/12	Arizona State at Texas A&M	+22
Sat 9/19	Arizona State vs Kansas	-5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	Arizona State vs Baylor	-4.5
Sat 10/10	Arizona State vs Hawai'i	-12
Sat 10/17	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+25.5
Sat 10/24	Arizona State vs Kansas State	-0
Sat 10/31	Arizona State at BYU	+14
Sat 11/7	Arizona State vs Colorado	-14
Sat 11/14	Arizona State at UCF	-3.5
Sat 11/21	Arizona State vs Oklahoma State	-14.5
Sat 11/28	Arizona State at Arizona	+7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9
ASU	#91 (.14)	40% (99)	25.8	43% (75)	2.86 (82)	193	39% (101)	224	3.37 (103)	#35 (.1)	41% (58)	24.5	42% (63)	40% (51)	3.46 (51)	57.8	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2
ASU Defense	13	24.5	21.4	40.8%	3.46	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	42%	40%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18
ASU Offense	13	25.8	24.7	40.2%	3.37	1.6	21	417	193	224	5.1	51%	47%	43%	39%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5
Arizona State	13	31:33	21.1	33%	58%	7.2	57.8	1.6	1.2	6.6	2.6	0	27.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)
ASU Defense	13	45% (16)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.03 (28)	2.72 (36)	71% (63)	11% (40)	0.92 (47)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)
ASU Offense	13	51% (54)	43% (75)	38	192.9	5.1	18 (78)	.11 (72)	2.86 (82)	63% (118)	10% (87)	0.97 (63)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)
ASU Defense	13	54% (123)	40% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.17 (32)	1.5 (39)	32% (58)	28% (56)	.2 (28)	8% (11)	2.1 (98)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)
ASU Offense	13	47% (89)	39% (101)	19.3	33.1	223.7	6.8	11.6	20 (86)	9 (20)	.25 (68)	1.6 (46)	32% (79)	28% (88)	.26 (86)	7% (105)	1.9 (99)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 2.84 #53
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.66 #47
Baylor's Defense Rating: 15.82 #60
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 2.84 Arizona State: 6.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Arizona State: 3.9

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 6.42 #49
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 10.24 #71
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 11.30 #33
2026 Talent Rating: 822.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Arizona State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 32
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 59

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Baylor	24	Arizona State	27	Baylor -3	Arizona State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	1	1	0 Overs
Baylor	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#53) BAY at (#49) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	ASU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#49
SP+SP+	#71	#60
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#37	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#49

Baylor Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ASU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#58
ExplosiveExp	#53	#53
PPAPPA	#49	#35
PowerPwr	#47	#33
SP+SP+	#32	#44
Pts POPPO	#69	#51
HavocHav	#56	#15

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#63
Run ExplRExp	#99	#47
PPAExp	#44	#28
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#34
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#39
PPAExp	#67	#32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#40
DB HavocDB	#86	#11

Arizona State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#99	#104
ExplosiveExp	#60	#15
PPAPPA	#91	#81
PowerPwr	#71	#60
SP+SP+	#59	#110
Pts POPPO	#103	#124
HavocHav	#99	#126

Arizona State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#107
Run ExplRExp	#63	#68
PPAExp	#72	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#88	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

Arizona State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#46	#13
PPAExp	#68	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#131
DB HavocDB	#105	#86

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Baylor last year (27-24)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39
Tony Livingston (Tr)	11	119	2	10.8	38

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Reggie Bush	11	0	0	0	2

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cutter Boley (Tr)	198	301	66%	2160	15	12	7.2
Kanyon Floyd	1	1	100%	19	0	0	19.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquis Gillis (Tr)	183	1145	7	6.3	75
David Avit (Tr)	125	687	8	5.5	34
Jason Brown Jr.	15	137	1	9.1	44
Kyson Brown	18	106	0	5.9	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Miller (Tr)	44	807	8	18.3	70
Reed Harris (Tr)	39	673	5	17.3	57
Derek Eusebio	22	341	2	15.5	68
Jalen Moss	16	273	1	17.1	51

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Owen Long (Tr)	148	5	2	0	5
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	0	3	7
Jessiah Mcgrew (Tr)	67	0	0	0	4
Adrian Wilson	57	1	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jalen Thompson (Tr)	29	6	3	8	1
Owen Long (Tr)	148	5	2	0	5
Ramere Davis (Tr)	9	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Montana Warren	40	2	2	8
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	3	7
Adrian Wilson	57	1	1	6