Iowa State at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -3 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 30 - Baylor: 18 (Big 12)

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (25 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -12.5 (SP+ ISU -17.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 32 - BAY: 19 (58)
ISU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 748 miles

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ISU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	.12	39%	31.1	37%	2.57	107	42%	262	3.51	.11	40%	22.9	39%	41%	3.26	45.7	1.8	1.8
BAY	.22	45%	34.4	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	26.7	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Offense	12	31.1	24.8	39.2%	3.51	1.8	20	369	107	262	3.3	41%	58%	37%	42%	15%	.12
BAY Defense	13	26.7	19.8	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Defense	12	22.9	15.8	39.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	39%	41%	17%	.11
BAY Offense	13	34.4	37.3	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa State	12	32:07	20.4	42%	56%	5.6	45.7	1.8	1.8	5.3	1.5	0	27.5
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Offense	12	41%	37%	32.8	107.2	3.3	10	-.02	2.57	60%	10%	0.81
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Defense	12	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.86	70%	11%	0.75
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Offense	12	58%	42%	26.1	39.9	261.8	6.6	10	19	15	.26	1.5	34%	32%	.31	5%	1.9
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.24	1.4	31%	23%	.17	6%	1.9
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.48 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 782.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 4.48 Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 8.6 Baylor: -8.8

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.8

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 32
Baylor 19

Projected Total Points: 58

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Iowa State	43	Baylor	21	Iowa State	Iowa State -13	Iowa State	45.0	Over
2023	10/28	Baylor	18	Iowa State	30	Iowa State	Iowa State -3	Iowa State	47.0	Over
2022	09/24	Iowa State	24	Baylor	31	Baylor	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	45.0	Over
2021	09/25	Baylor	31	Iowa State	29	Baylor	Iowa State -7	Baylor	46.0	Over
2020	11/07	Iowa State	38	Baylor	31	Iowa State	Iowa State -14	Baylor	46.5	Over
2019	09/28	Baylor	23	Iowa State	21	Baylor	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	55.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa State	28	Baylor	14	Iowa State	Iowa State -17	Baylor	51.0	Under
2017	11/18	Baylor	13	Iowa State	23	Iowa State	Iowa State -7.5	Iowa State	50.0	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa State	42	Baylor	45	Baylor	Baylor -17	Iowa State	62.0	Over
2015	10/24	Baylor	45	Iowa State	27	Baylor	Baylor -37	Iowa State	74.5	Under
2014	09/27	Iowa State	28	Baylor	49	Baylor	Baylor -22	Iowa State	0
2013	10/19	Baylor	71	Iowa State	7	Baylor	Baylor -33	Baylor	0
2012	10/27	Iowa State	35	Baylor	21	Iowa State
2011	10/08	Baylor	49	Iowa State	26	Baylor
2009	10/17	Iowa State	24	Baylor	10	Iowa State
2008	10/11	Baylor	38	Iowa State	10	Baylor
2005	10/08	Iowa State	13	Baylor	23	Baylor
2004	10/23	Baylor	25	Iowa State	26	Iowa State
2001	09/29	Iowa State	41	Baylor	0	Iowa State
2000	09/29	Baylor	17	Iowa State	31	Iowa State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	10	6	6 Overs
Iowa State	10	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 8	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 12	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2

(#39) Iowa State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.48 #39
Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18
Talent Rating: 782.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80

Team Profile

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Iowa State Ratings Matchup Baylor

Power #39

#108

Off #87

#99

Def #23

#127

Talent #32

#49

SP+ #34

#98

SP+ Off #70

#78

SP+ Def #18

#105

Rematch from Week 9
Iowa State 3.0 (47.0)
Iowa State won at Baylor this year (30-18)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Baylor last year (43-21)
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2023 (30-18)
Baylor beat Iowa State in 2022 (31-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 72° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.031

Team Information
Injuries: ISU | BAY
Depth Chart: ISU | BAY
Rosters: ISU | BAY

(#108) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105
Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50

Team Profile

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Iowa State's OC Nathan Scheelhaase

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylin Noel	0	2	0%	0	0	0	0.0
Ryan Millmore	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Sanders	147	1064	9	7.2	75
Cartevious Norton	129	525	7	4.1	62
Jaylin Noel	9	38	0	4.2	12
Stevo Klotz	2	22	0	11.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Eli Sanders	15	134	0	8.9	31
Stevo Klotz	8	89	1	11.1	28

View Iowa State's Full Roster

Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Blake Thompson	60	3	0	0	3
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jefferson Adam	26	7	5	0	0
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Myles Norwood	38	2	0	0	5

Baylor's OC Jeff Grimes

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Shapen	34	36	2	1.1	18
RJ Martinez (Tr)	8	21	0	2.6	15
Monaray Baldwin	3	3	0	1.0	2
Armani Winfield	1	-9	0	-9.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53
Armani Winfield	38	341	2	9.0	62
Javon Gipson	23	335	2	14.6	43

View Baylor's Full Roster

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0
Caleb Parker	15	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0
Tony Anyanwu	2	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caleb Parker	15	1	0	1	2
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1