Iowa State at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview

Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -3 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 30 - Baylor: 18 (Big 12)

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (22 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -12.5 (SP+ ISU -17.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 32 - BAY: 19 (51)
ISU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 748 miles

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ISU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	.12	39%	27.4	37%	2.57	107	42%	262	3.51	.11	40%	20.2	39%	41%	3.26	45.7	1.8	1.8
BAY	.22	45%	31.1	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	32.6	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Offense	12	27.4	22.2	39.2%	3.51	1.8	20	369	107	262	3.3	41%	58%	37%	42%	15%	.12
BAY Defense	13	32.6	27.9	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Defense	12	20.2	21.6	39.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	39%	41%	17%	.11
BAY Offense	13	31.1	29.6	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa State	12	32:07	20.4	42%	56%	5.6	45.7	1.8	1.8	5.3	1.5	0	27.5
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Offense	12	41%	37%	32.8	107.2	3.3	10	-.02	2.57	60%	10%	0.81
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Defense	12	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.86	70%	11%	0.75
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Offense	12	58%	42%	26.1	39.9	261.8	6.6	10	19	15	.26	1.5	34%	32%	.31	5%	1.9
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.24	1.4	31%	23%	.17	6%	1.9
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.48 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 638.87 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 4.48 Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 8.6 Baylor: -8.8

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 32
Baylor 19

Projected Total Points: 51

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Iowa State	43	Baylor	21	Iowa State -13	Iowa State	45.0	Over
2023	10/28	Baylor	18	Iowa State	30	Iowa State -3	Iowa State	47.0	Over
2022	09/24	Iowa State	24	Baylor	31	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	45.0	Over
2021	09/25	Baylor	31	Iowa State	29	Iowa State -7	Baylor	46.0	Over
2020	11/07	Iowa State	38	Baylor	31	Iowa State -14	Baylor	46.5	Over
2019	09/28	Baylor	23	Iowa State	21	Iowa State -2.5	Baylor	55.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa State	28	Baylor	14	Iowa State -17	Baylor	51.0	Under
2017	11/18	Baylor	13	Iowa State	23	Iowa State -7.5	Iowa State	50.0	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa State	42	Baylor	45	Baylor -17	Iowa State	62.0	Over
2015	10/24	Baylor	45	Iowa State	27	Baylor -37	Iowa State	74.5	Under
2014	09/27	Iowa State	28	Baylor	49	Baylor -22	Iowa State	0
2013	10/19	Baylor	71	Iowa State	7	Baylor -33	Baylor	0
2012	10/27	Iowa State	35	Baylor	21
2011	10/08	Baylor	49	Iowa State	26
2009	10/17	Iowa State	24	Baylor	10
2008	10/11	Baylor	38	Iowa State	10
2005	10/08	Iowa State	13	Baylor	23
2004	10/23	Baylor	25	Iowa State	26
2001	09/29	Iowa State	41	Baylor	0
2000	09/29	Baylor	17	Iowa State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	10	6	6 Overs
Iowa State	10	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 8	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 12	6 - 6	2 - 4	4 - 2

(#39) ISU at (#108) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ISU	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#39	#108
SP+SP+	#34	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#100
OffenseOff	#79	#82
DefenseDef	#36	#123
Spec TeamsST	#35	#18
TalentTal	#60	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#38

Iowa State Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#123
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#87	#127
SP+SP+	#70	#105
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#78	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#99	#23
SP+SP+	#78	#18
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Iowa State 3.0 (47.0)
Iowa State won at Baylor this year (30-18)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2024 (43-21)
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2023 (30-18)

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4