Arkansas State Team Profile

Arkansas State Red Wolves (@AStateFB)
Butch Jones (5th year) (25-37) #1
Record: 7 - 6 (5 - 3) | Proj: 7 - 5 (#) | SOS: (#115)
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Overview
Schedule
Stats
Roster
Notes
Records
Recruiting
Bowls

Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-15.5	59.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Arkansas State vs Arkansas	+23.5	62.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/13	Arkansas State vs Iowa State	+21.0	55.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Arkansas State at Kennesaw State	-4.5	57.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.5	55.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/4	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+14.0	63.5	W 31 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+8.5	57.5	W 15 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	59.5	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Arkansas State at Troy	+7.5	52.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+6.5	54.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Arkansas State at App State	+1.0	54.5	W 30 - 29	O	Y
Thu 12/18	Arkansas State vs Missouri State	-1.5	55.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y

Record Prediction: 7 - 5 NR
Schedule Rating: #115
Future 2027 Schedule

Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-15.5	59.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Arkansas State vs Arkansas	+23.5	62.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/13	Arkansas State vs Iowa State	+21.0	55.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Arkansas State at Kennesaw State	-4.5	57.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.5	55.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/4	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+14.0	63.5	W 31 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+8.5	57.5	W 15 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	59.5	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Arkansas State at Troy	+7.5	52.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+6.5	54.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Arkansas State at App State	+1.0	54.5	W 30 - 29	O	Y
Thu 12/18	Arkansas State vs Missouri State	-1.5	55.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y

2024 Schedule Rating: #110
2025 Record: 7 - 6 (SBC: 5 - 3)
Spread Record 9 - 4 - 0 | O/U 5 - 8

Opponents: 0 Elite, 2 Good, 0 Avg, 6 Bad, 4 Poor

Reg Season Opponents: 0 Elite, 2 Good, 0 Avg, 2 Bad, 7 Poor

Show Past Schedules

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas			W 34 - 31
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

2026 class: 183 points   #68
2025 class: 180 points   #79
2024 class: 169 points   #74
2023 class: 168 points   #71
2022 class: 167 points   #72

Average Class Ranking:   #73
Average Recruiting Points: 173

Four Year Crootin Profile
Consistent Below Avg P4
4 Year Class: #75 - Best: #71 Worst: #79

CFB Crootin Averages
Sun Belt Class: 161  #99
Group of 5 Class: 154  #103
FBS Class: 189  #71

2021 class: 140 points   #94
2020 class: 155 points   #102
2019 class: 146 points   #103
2018 class: 148 points   #94
2017 class: 115 points   #106

Average Class Ranking:   #100
Average Recruiting Points: 141

Transfer Portal Classes
2025 Portal Class #103 - 37 players, 83 Avg
2025 Portal Class #103 - 37 players, 83 Avg
2024 Portal Class #97 - 18 players, 83 Avg
2023 Portal Class #110 - 9 players, 0 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes

Transfer Portal Classes
2022 Portal Class #92 - 11 players, 83 Avg
2021 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2020 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2019 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg

Offensive Coordinator Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years) #1

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Dickey	1	2	50%	28	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Drew Dickey	3	13	1	4.3	9
Joshua Burrell	1	4	0	4.0	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Burrell	36	290	2	8.1	29
Makai Shahid	1	21	0	21.0	21

(Tr) - new transfer in 2026

Defensive Coordinator Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years) #1

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Five Hamilton	38	2	0	0	2
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Makai Shahid	6	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Tyeland Coleman	2	1	1	0	0
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Sultan Badmus	5	1	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Five Hamilton	38	2	0	0	2
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1

Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 40% #103
Offense Returning Production: 58% #39
Defense Returning Production: 23% #133
Arkansas State's Official Roster

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class #103
37 Commits, 82.7 Avg Rating
38% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 36% TY

Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Offense Talent #79 | Defense Talent #72
2025 #75 | 2024 #67 | 2023 #92 | 2022 #88

2025 - 2023 Records
2025 Record: 7 - 6
2025 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 9 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8

2025 Record: 7 - 6
2025 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 9 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8

2024 Record: 8 - 5
2024 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 6 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

2023 Record: 6 - 7
2023 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 6 - 6 - 1 | Totals: 6 - 7

Four Year Record: 28 - 24
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 30 - 20 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 19 - 13

2022 - 2019 Records
2022 Record: 3 - 9
2022 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 5

2021 Record: 2 - 10
2021 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 6 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 3 - 9

2020 Record: 4 - 7
2020 Conf Record: 2 - 6
Spread: 6 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 5

2019 Record: 8 - 5
2019 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 6 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

Eight Year Record: 45 - 55
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 55 - 43 - 1
Eight Year Conference Record: 32 - 36

Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Xbox Bowl	Arkansas State vs Missouri State	-1.5	55.5	W 34 - 28
2024	Ventures Bowl	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31
2023	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21
2019	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Florida International	+1.5	60.0	W 34 - 26
2018	N/A	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16
2017	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35
2016	Cure Bowl	Arkansas State vs UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13
2015	Orleans Bowl	Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech	-1.0		L 28 - 47

Power Ranking Stats (2025)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Expl	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Expl	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2025	.09 (111)	1.16 (127)	42% (71)	3.31 (110)	30.4 (36)	39%	60%	.19 (89)	1.29 (93)	43% (92)	3.9 (89)	27.8 (46)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Expl	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Expl	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2024	.17 (81)	1.22 (102)	41% (91)	3.96 (63)	27.6 (104)	40%	75%	.31 (126)	1.31 (91)	48% (124)	4.62 (127)	27 (22)

More Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2025	13	29:31	22.2	39%	60%	6.3	57.8	1.8	1.3	6.2	3	3

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2024	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1

Overall Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2025 Offense	13	25.2	29	21	42% (71)	3.31 (110)	1.8	22	383	124	260	3.6	42% (123)	56% (13)	40% (101)	44% (47)	18% (111)	.09 (111)
2025 Defense	13	27.4	27.2	21.8	43.4% (92)	3.9 (89)	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52% (96)	46% (46)	44% (83)	44% (98)	16% (72)	.19 (89)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2024 Offense	13	25.8	29	20.7	41% (91)	3.96 (63)	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48% (83)	52% (49)	43% (84)	39% (96)	16% (80)	.17 (81)
2024 Defense	13	32.2	27.2	37.3	48% (124)	4.62 (127)	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52% (84)	48% (52)	51% (131)	44% (110)	15% (80)	.31 (126)

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2025 Offense	13	42% (123)	40% (101)	34.5	123.5	3.6	14 (107)	-.01 (125)	2.65 (119)	70% (80)	10% (91)	0.8 (126)
2025 Defense	13	52% (96)	44% (83)	-	-	-	-	.12 (82)	2.75 (44)	69% (49)	11% (40)	1.01 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2024 Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)
2024 Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2025 Offense	13	56% (13)	44% (47)	25.7	39.1	259.8	6.7	10.1	20 (86)	12 (60)	.21 (86)	1.4 (123)	30% (45)	28% (86)	.27 (83)	8% (125)	2.1 (28)
2025 Defense	13	46% (46)	44% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.31 (100)	1.6 (89)	30% (88)	32% (97)	.42 (118)	5% (108)	2.2 (119)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2024 Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)
2024 Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)

Injury Notes

Staff/Schedule Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY ❌
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road ❌
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW ❌
(3/23) New DC Dreiling was Utah St Int HC LY ❌

Overall

Team Info

Power #103SP+ #100

Record Prediction: 7 - 5 NR

Coaching staff Rank #1

Record

7 - 6
SBC 5 - 3

Vs Spread9 - 4 - 0Totals5 - 8

One Score Games '25: (4-4)(14-15 under B.J.)

5 Year Profile

Consistent Below Avg G5

'26 Profile

Up to Average G5

Performance #79

Special Teams #39

Returning Production

From 2025

0% #1

25 QB Jaylen Raynor returns (OC back)

Offense 58% #39

Defense 23% #133

Returning Starters: (Off: ) - (Def: )

Proj Portal Starters: (Off: ) - (Def: )

Exp'd Depth: (Off: ) - (Def: )

OL Prod: 61% #502 starters, 2 exp'd depth

OL Snaps: 2,764 #76From Portal: 486 #64

Rush Prod: 78% #31

Rec Prod: 58% #52

Front Seven: 25% #129

Secondary: 21% #125

Roster

Talent Info

Talent #75

Blue Chips (2%) #79

Offense Talent #79

Defense Talent #72

Portal Class #10337 players (83 Avg)

Crootin '26 Class #684 YR Class Rating #75

Talent Profile

Consistent Below Avg P4

38% of Roster from Portal, 36% TY

97% of '26 Roster are New (Fr + Portals)

(OC) Keith Heckendorf 3

(DC) Rob Harley 3

2025 Schedule

Information

SOS #115

Arkansas State plays 4 opps off a byeTXST & USA & USM & ULL

OppsElite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 6, Poor: 4

2025 Record: 7 - 6 (9 - 4 - 0) (SBC: 5 - 3)

2024 Record: 8 - 5 (6 - 6 - 0) (SBC: 5 - 3)

Win History

Past 5 years 4.8

Avg under Butch J 5.2

4 Yr Record (28 - 24)

8 Yr Record (45 - 55)

Notes

Live Team Notes

Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch

Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far

QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St

Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early

Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun

Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY

OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds

Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY

HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road

QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY

Roster Experience

Snaps & Starter Info

Snaps Returning

0 (0%) #1

%of Snaps by Upperclass

Offense: 0 #1

Defense: 0 #1

Players with Starting Exp () on Off, on Def

Upperclass

Starters 0 of 22 (0%)2-Deep 0 of 44 (0%)

Senior/Gr starters: 0 (0%) (Off: 0, Def: 0)

Upperclass Two-Deep: 0 of 44 (0%)

Upperclass on Roster: 37.4%(55 of 147)

Portals

Top '25 Incoming Portals

JJ Harrell (WR)3★ (.85)

Aaron Alexander (LB)3★ (.84)

Jaylen Bonelli (WR)3★ (.84)

Kobe Williams (IOL)3★ (.84)

Zuri Madison (IOL)3★ (.84)

Quan Lee (WR)3★ (.83)

Wil Saxton (IOL)3★ (.83)

Kenyon Clay (RB)3★ (.83)

Top Players

Top Performers on Roster

Top Players N/A Before 2025

Recruits

Top '25 Incoming Recruits

Romel Stevens (WR)3★ (.86)

Ronnie Blossom (EDGE)3★ (.86)

Nigel Nelson (LB)3★ (.86)

Courtney Patterson (CB)3★ (.85)

Mike Peterson Jr. (ATH)3★ (.85)

Antonio Carter Jr. (DL)3★ (.85)

Demarcus Baker (CB)3★ (.85)

Tyrell Lewis (QB)3★ (.85)

Overall

Four Year Ratings Profile

Offense

Four Year Ratings Profile

Defense

Four Year Ratings Profile