Southern Miss at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo   Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas State Red Wolves  Arkansas State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Southern Miss -6.5 (54.5) (-238)  Open: -3.5
Southern Miss 27 - Arkansas State: 21  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
USM coming off BYE
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Southern Miss -1.5  (SP+ USM -1.5)

Projected Score: USM: 28 - ARST: 27 (55)
USM Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
USM Travel: 322 miles
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)28.840% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)27.445% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)25.243% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)27.451% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1228.828.434.7%2.752.4162841091753.249%51%40%30%26%
ARST Defense1327.427.248%4.621.4 - - - - - 52%48%51%44%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1227.427.644.1%4.170.8 - - - - - 55%45%45%43%14%.3
ARST Offense1325.22941%3.961.3203571482104.348%52%43%39%16%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1227:2215.525%44%648.32.40.85.41.7226.5
Arkansas State1326:5620.340%75%5.147.81.31.44.51.4127.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1249% (79)40% (108)34.21093.213 (105).06 (103)2.59 (126)61% (124)18% (133)1 (53)
ARST Defense1352% (84)51% (131) - - - - .28 (131)3.45 (127)73% (65)9% (82)1.02 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1255% (116)45% (89) - - - - .27 (129)3.22 (101)71% (54)10% (80)1.21 (131)
ARST Offense1348% (83)43% (84)34.8147.84.316 (90).12 (72)3.01 (77)73% (71)9% (48)0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1251% (55)30% (133)13.826.5174.96.612.67 (130)17 (127)-.05 (134)1.7 (30)38% (130)24% (125).15 (129)8% (122)2.1 (45)
ARST Defense1348% (52)44% (110) - - - - - - 14 (23).35 (115)1.7 (103)29% (106)32% (89).51 (125)6% (74)2.3 (122)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1245% (20)43% (93) - - - - - - 6 (109).35 (114)1.7 (114)31% (77)35% (114).51 (124)5% (113)2.2 (116)
ARST Offense1352% (49)39% (96)19.631.6209.66.610.717 (79)9 (48).21 (90)1.5 (88)31% (67)32% (55).39 (42)8% (115)2 (97)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -3.70  #78
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 13.24  #69
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 16.94  #93
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1  #94
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #69
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -3.70   Arkansas State: -7.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -7.1   Arkansas State: -8.8




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.105  #103
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 10.99  #81
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 21.40  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 28
Arkansas State 27


Projected Total Points: 55
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Arkansas State21Southern Miss27Southern Miss -6.5Arkansas State54.5Under
202410/19Southern Miss28Arkansas State44Arkansas State -7Arkansas State57.0Over
202309/23Arkansas State44Southern Miss37Southern Mississippi -7Arkansas State46.5Over
202210/15Southern Miss20Arkansas State19Southern Mississippi -4.5Arkansas State53.0Under
200809/13Arkansas State24Southern Miss27
200711/24Southern Miss16Arkansas State10
200512/20Arkansas State19Southern Miss31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State242 Overs
Southern Miss502 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 42 - 20 - 12 - 1
Road Teams4 - 32 - 21 - 21 - 0

(#78) USM at (#103) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSMARST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #78 #103
SP+SP+ #94 #100
Perf GradeGrade #35 #79
OffenseOff #78 #76
DefenseDef #10 #82
Spec TeamsST #46 #39
TalentTal #52 #75
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #79
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffARST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #78 #82
SuccessSuc #130 #124
ExplosiveExp #50 #91
PPAPPA #132 #126
PowerPwr #69 #118
SP+SP+ #69 #111
Pts POPPO #133 #127
HavocHav #133 #80
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffARST Def
Run GameRun #112 #80
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #131
Run ExplRExp #53 #85
PPAExp #103 #131
Run BlockR Blk #117 -
OL YdsOLY #126 #127
Stuff RateStuff #132 #91
TackleTak -  #34
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #36 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #110
Pass ExplPExl #30 #103
PPAExp #134 #115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #54 #55
F7 HavocF7 #133 #82
DB HavocDB #122 #74
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffUSM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #76 #10
SuccessSuc #91 #97
ExplosiveExp #102 #124
PPAPPA #81 #125
PowerPwr #81 #93
SP+SP+ #90 #103
Pts POPPO #63 #104
HavocHav #80 #97
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #102 #21
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #89
Run ExplRExp #99 #131
PPAExp #72 #129
Run BlockR Blk #65 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #101
Stuff RateStuff #56 #60
TackleTak -  #42
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #72 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #93
Pass ExplPExl #88 #114
PPAExp #90 #114
Pass Block/RushP Blk #21 #15
F7 HavocF7 #48 #80
DB HavocDB #115 #113
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Southern Miss 6.5 (54.5)
Southern Miss won at Arkansas State this year (27-21)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State last year (27-21)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2024 (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)

  
USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5513871
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004