UL Monroe at Arkansas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 1st 2022 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -7.5 (58.5)
Arkansas State 45 - UL Monroe: 28 (Sun Belt)

Warhawks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST is playing their 5th straight game
ULM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -4 (SP+ ARST -3)
Projected Score: ULM: 22 - ARST: 32 (54)
ARST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
ULM Travel: 243 miles

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	UL Monroe at Texas	+37.0	64.5	L 10 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/10	UL Monroe vs Nicholls	-4.5	58.5	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/17	UL Monroe at Alabama	+49.5	68.5	L 7 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/24	UL Monroe vs Louisiana	+9.5	51.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/1	UL Monroe at Arkansas State	+7.5	58.5	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/8	UL Monroe vs Coastal Carolina	+12.5	58.0	L 21 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/15	UL Monroe at South Alabama	+17.0	51.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/22	UL Monroe at Army	+6.5	55.5	L 24 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	UL Monroe vs Texas State	-2.5	52.5	W 31 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/12	UL Monroe at Georgia State	+13.5	59.5	W 31 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/19	UL Monroe at Troy	+15.0	48.5	L 16 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/26	UL Monroe vs Southern Miss	+3.0	49.5	L 10 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	.08	33%	16.6	34%	2.48	134	32%	194	3.4	.27	47%	31.9	46%	48%	4.34	32.6	1.3	1.6
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	16.6	15.4	33%	3.4	1.3	19	328	134	194	3.2	52%	48%	34%	32%	21%	.08
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	31.9	39	46.6%	4.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	46%	48%	15%	.27
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	28:49	18.6	34%	52%	3.8	32.6	1.3	1.6	4.8	1.9	1	28.4
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	52%	34%	41.7	134.4	3.2	13		2.48	76%	16%	1.02
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	49%	46%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.31	69%	10%	0.93
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	48%	32%	16.7	29.5	194	6.6	11.6	15	9	.17	1.9	38%	30%	.4	5%	2.3
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	51%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.39	1.6	28%	31%	.44	6%	2.1
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: NR
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: NR
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UL Monroe's 2022 Expected Record: -
UL Monroe's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.7 #118
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #91
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.0 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: Arkansas State: -4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -15.7 Arkansas State: -13.0

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 32
UL Monroe 22

Projected Total Points: 54

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	UL Monroe	28	Arkansas State	16	UL Monroe -1.5	UL Monroe	55.5	Under
2024	11/23	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State -3	Arkansas State	51.5	Under
2023	10/28	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	34	Louisiana Monroe -1.0	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	10/01	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	28	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	58.5	Over
2021	11/13	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	27	Louisiana Monroe -3	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2020	12/05	Arkansas State	48	UL Monroe	15	Arkansas State -20.5	Arkansas State	71.5	Under
2019	11/02	UL Monroe	41	Arkansas State	48	Arkansas State -1	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2018	11/17	Arkansas State	31	UL Monroe	17	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Under
2017	11/25	UL Monroe	50	Arkansas State	67	Arkansas State -8.5	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2016	10/29	Arkansas State	51	UL Monroe	10	Arkansas State -17	Arkansas State	55.0	Over
2015	11/14	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	59	Arkansas State -12.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/04	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State -10	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/09	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State	42	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	11/08	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	23
2011	10/08	UL Monroe	19	Arkansas State	24
2010	09/18	Arkansas State	34	UL Monroe	20
2009	10/13	UL Monroe	16	Arkansas State	10
2008	10/11	Arkansas State	37	UL Monroe	29
2007	10/06	UL Monroe	30	Arkansas State	13
2006	10/07	Arkansas State	10	UL Monroe	6
2005	10/01	UL Monroe	31	Arkansas State	27
2004	09/25	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	28
2003	10/04	Arkansas State	44	UL Monroe	41
2002	09/21	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	33
2001	11/17	Arkansas State	7	UL Monroe	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	20	12	6 Overs
UL Monroe	5	1	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	7 - 6	7 - 3	0 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	6 - 7	3 - 0	3 - 7

(#) ULM at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULM	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#118	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#129	#93
OffenseOff	#120	#91
DefenseDef	#127	#108
Spec TeamsST	#130	#55
TalentTal	#120	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UL Monroe Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

UL Monroe on Offense


CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UL Monroe Run Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#119	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

UL Monroe Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#127
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#122
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	#112	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Arkansas State -7.5 (58.5)
Arkansas State won vs UL Monroe this year (45-28)

Previous Matchups
UL Monroe beat Arkansas State last year (28-16)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2024 (28-21)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (34-24)

ULM's OC Matt Kubik (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Vic Koenning (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD