Arkansas State at Nevada - 2018 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, December 29th 2018 (1:15 PM EST)
Nevada -1.5 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Nevada 16 - Arkansas State: 13

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (30 - 29 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1 (SP+ ARST -1.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 29 - NEV: 32 (61)
NEV Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 1186 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 27 (36 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ARST Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-32.5	56.0	W 48 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/8	Arkansas State at Alabama	+36.5	63.0	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 9/15	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+2.0	71.0	W 29 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/22	Arkansas State vs UNLV	-8.0	66.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/29	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-3.0	53.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/9	Arkansas State vs App State	+10.5	59.5	L 9 - 35	U	N
Thu 10/18	Arkansas State vs Georgia State	-13.5	55.5	W 51 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/27	Arkansas State at Louisiana	-3.0	69.0	L 43 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/3	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	-14.0	61.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/10	Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina	-6.5	61.5	W 44 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/17	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	68.0	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/24	Arkansas State at Texas State	-13.0	48.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/29	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Nevada's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/31	Nevada vs Portland State	-28.0	71.0	W 72 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/8	Nevada at Vanderbilt	+10.0	59.5	L 10 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/15	Nevada vs Oregon State	-4.0	67.0	W 37 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/22	Nevada at Toledo	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/29	Nevada at Air Force	+3.5	64.0	W 28 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/6	Nevada vs Fresno State	+15.0	59.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/13	Nevada vs Boise State	+15.0	59.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/20	Nevada at Hawai'i	+3.0	67.0	W 40 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/27	Nevada vs San Diego State	-1.0	45.5	W 28 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/10	Nevada vs Colorado State	-14.0	61.5	W 49 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/17	Nevada at San José State	-14.5	59.5	W 21 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/24	Nevada at UNLV	-14.0	60.5	L 29 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/29	Nevada vs Arkansas State	-1.5	56.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.22	46%	30.3	46%	3.35	186	45%	281	3.4	.13	39%	25.6	41%	35%	3.39	68.1	1.2	1.5
NEV	.14	42%	31.1	41%	2.76	152	41%	277	3.77	.11	39%	26.9	34%	42%	3.33	56.8	2.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	30.3	29.5	45.8%	3.4	1.2	23	467	186	281	4.8	48%	50%	46%	45%	14%	.22
NEV Defense	13	26.9	23.3	38.8%	3.33	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	34%	42%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	25.6	29.2	38.8%	3.39	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	41%	35%	20%	.13
NEV Offense	13	31.1	36	41.7%	3.77	2.1	21	428	152	277	4.5	43%	55%	41%	41%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	30:07	23.1	40%	53%	7.6	68.1	1.2	1.5	6.8	2.3	3	28.6
Nevada	13	29:08	20.9	32%	53%	5.9	56.8	2.1	1.4	7.9	2.7	2	29.3

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48%	46%	39.1	185.7	4.8	18	.17	3.35	70%	8%	0.91
NEV Defense	13	50%	34%	-	-	-	-		2.65	76%	12%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	56%	41%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.45	67%	13%	1.15
NEV Offense	13	43%	41%	33.5	151.9	4.5	24	.07	2.76	63%	10%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	50%	45%	23.3	36.3	281.5	7.8	12.1	28	10	.29	1.6	31%	34%	.4	6%	1.8
NEV Defense	13	49%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.23	1.6	34%	28%	.23	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	43%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.19	1.9	38%	31%	.28	7%	2.1
NEV Offense	13	55%	41%	22.6	37.8	276.5	7.3	12.2	25	17	.22	1.6	34%	31%	.27	7%	1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2018 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #72
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #57
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #62

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Nevada: -0.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: 1.2 Nevada: -0.5

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -0.25 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2018 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.5 #77
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #82
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #63

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.5
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Arkansas State's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Nevada 32
Arkansas State 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 34
Arkansas State 30

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Nevada 30
Arkansas State 28

Total Points: 58

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

Nevada's 2018 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2018	12/29	Nevada	16	Arkansas State	13	Nevada -1.5	Nevada	56.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	1	1	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2018	N/A	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16
2017	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35
2016	Cure Bowl	Arkansas State vs UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13
2015	Orleans Bowl	Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech	-1.0		L 28 - 47
2014	Godaddy Bowl	Arkansas State vs Toledo	+3.5	70.5	L 44 - 63
2013	Godaddy Bowl	Arkansas State vs Ball State	+6.5	65.0	W 23 - 20
2012	Com Bowl	Arkansas State vs Kent State			W 17 - 13

Nevada Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2018	N/A	Nevada vs Arkansas State	-1.5	56.5	W 16 - 13
2015	Arizona Bowl	Nevada vs Colorado State	+3.5		W 28 - 23
2014	Orleans Bowl	Nevada vs Louisiana	-1.5	62.5	L 3 - 16
2012	Mexico Bowl	Nevada vs Arizona			L 48 - 49

(#) ARST at (#) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#72	#77
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#86	#87
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Nevada Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#63
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#82	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 43°

Rematch from Week 1
Nevada -1.5 (56.5)
Nevada won vs Arkansas State this year (16-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEV's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD