Arkansas State at Tulsa - 2021 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo   Arkansas State Red Wolves at Tulsa Golden Hurricane  Tulsa logo
Saturday, September 25th 2021 (5:00 PM EDT)
Tulsa -14.5 (65.0)
Tulsa 41 - Arkansas State: 34

 
Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
TLSA is playing their 4th straight game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -14.5  (SP+ TLSA -24)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - TLSA: 25 (51)
TLSA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 296 miles
Golden Hurricane (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Philip Montgomery (31 - 43)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-13.564.0W 40 - 21UY
Sat 9/11 Arkansas State vs Memphis+5.565.0L 50 - 55OY
Sat 9/18 Arkansas State at Washington+17.558.5L 3 - 52UN
Sat 9/25 Arkansas State at Tulsa+14.565.0L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/2 Arkansas State at Georgia Southern+1.566.5L 33 - 59ON
Thu 10/7 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+20.574.5L 20 - 52UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+17.070.0L 27 - 28UY
Sat 10/30 Arkansas State at South Alabama+9.567.0L 13 - 31UN
Sat 11/6 Arkansas State vs App State+21.567.5L 14 - 48UN
Sat 11/13 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+3.066.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 11/20 Arkansas State at Georgia State+15.566.0L 20 - 28UY
Sat 11/27 Arkansas State vs Texas State-2.062.0L 22 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Tulsa's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 Tulsa vs UC Davis-22.054.5L 17 - 19UN
Sat 9/11 Tulsa at Oklahoma State+11.551.0L 23 - 28UY
Sat 9/18 Tulsa at Ohio State+24.560.5L 20 - 41OY
Sat 9/25 Tulsa vs Arkansas State-14.565.0W 41 - 34ON
Fri 10/1 Tulsa vs Houston-3.054.0L 10 - 45ON
Sat 10/9 Tulsa vs Memphis-3.060.5W 35 - 29OY
Sat 10/16 Tulsa at South Florida-7.556.0W 32 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/29 Tulsa vs Navy-11.046.0L 17 - 20UN
Sat 11/6 Tulsa at Cincinnati+22.556.0L 20 - 28UY
Sat 11/13 Tulsa at Tulane-3.055.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/20 Tulsa vs Temple-22.050.5W 44 - 10OY
Sat 11/27 Tulsa at SMU+6.063.0W 34 - 31OY
Mon 12/20 Tulsa vs Old Dominion-7.555.0W 30 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST.2543%25.239%2.8212546%3643.99.2242%27.437%47%3.8857.41.51.1
TLSA.1241%23.242%2.9415840%2533.34.0336%28.936%36%2.7781.821.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TLSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1125.22142.8%3.991.5244901253643.642%57%39%46%16%.25
TLSA Defense928.927.236%2.771.8 - - - - - 53%47%36%36%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1127.421.842.2%3.881.1 - - - - - 50%50%37%47%17%.22
TLSA Offense923.227.340.9%3.34222410158253450%49%42%40%17%.12

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1128:3824.540%50%6.457.41.51.16.91.8125.9
Tulsa928:2222.141%53%981.821.87.42.4230.1
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1142%39%34.9125.23.67.012.8264%9%0.9
TLSA Defense953%36% - - - - -.042.769%13%0.86
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1150%37% - - - - .022.4464%11%1.06
TLSA Offense950%42%39.4157.6413.032.9463%10%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1157%46%25.142.2364.48.614.5399.431.834%36%.47%2
TLSA Defense947%36% - - - - - - 6.111.434%24%.076%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1150%47% - - - - - - 6.421.731%34%.45%2.2
TLSA Offense949%40%19.234252.77.413.11511.211.732%33%.387%2.2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9  #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State:    Tulsa: 5.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -17.9   Tulsa: 5.8




Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: 5.4 NR
Tulsa's Offense Rating: NR
Tulsa's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Tulsa's 2021 Expected Record: -
Tulsa's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #61
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #67
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #48

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 26
Tulsa 25

Projected Total Points: 51
Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.3
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Tulsa's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Arkansas State28Tulsa24Arkansas State -9.5Tulsa65.5Under
202109/25Tulsa41Arkansas State34Tulsa -14.5Arkansas State65.0Over
201809/15Tulsa20Arkansas State29Tulsa -2Arkansas State71.0Under
200309/20Tulsa54Arkansas State7
200209/07Arkansas State21Tulsa19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulsa211 Overs
Arkansas State322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 10 - 30 - 30 - 0
Road Teams1 - 43 - 00 - 03 - 0

(#) ARST at (#) TLSA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTTLSA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #120 #61
Perf GradeGrade #123 #47
OffenseOff #112 #63
DefenseDef #129 #23
Spec TeamsST #41 #136
TalentTal #82 #84
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Arkansas State on Offense
CategoryCat
ARST OffTLSA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #112 #23
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #109 #48
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffTLSA Def
Run GameRun #110 #16
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #24
Arkansas State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffTLSA Def
Pass GamePass #76 #59
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #77 #28
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Tulsa on Offense
CategoryCatTLSA OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #63 #129
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #67 #125
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Tulsa Run Game
CategoryCat
TLSA OffARST Def
Run GameRun #63 #134
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #127
Tulsa Pass Game
CategoryCatTLSA OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #65 #99
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #40 #39
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TLSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in at H. A. Chapman Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Tulsa -14.5 (65.0)
Tulsa won vs Arkansas State this year (41-34)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Tulsa in 2024 (28-24)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TLSA's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Joseph Gillespie (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD