South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -2.5 (62.5) (-142) Open: -4.5
Arkansas State 18 - South Alabama: 16 (Sun Belt)
Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
USA 3rd straight Road Game
ARST coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -6 (SP+ USA -12.5)
Projected Score: USA: 33 - ARST: 27 (59)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 387 miles
ARST coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -6 (SP+ USA -12.5)
Projected Score: USA: 33 - ARST: 27 (59)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 387 miles
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
| South Alabama's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | South Alabama vs North Texas | -6.0 | 61.5 | L 38 - 52 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | South Alabama at Ohio | -1.5 | 55.5 | L 20 - 27 | U | N | |
| Thu 9/12 | South Alabama vs Northwestern State | -36.5 | 60.5 | W 87 - 10 | O | Y | |
| Thu 9/19 | South Alabama at App State | +8.0 | 62.5 | W 48 - 14 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | South Alabama at LSU | +21.0 | 64.5 | L 10 - 42 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -2.5 | 62.5 | L 16 - 18 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/15 | South Alabama vs Troy | -10.0 | 53.0 | W 25 - 9 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -7.0 | 45.0 | W 46 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -5.5 | 60.0 | L 30 - 34 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | South Alabama at Louisiana | +6.5 | 60.0 | W 24 - 22 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -24.0 | 54.0 | W 35 - 14 | U | N | |
| Fri 11/29 | South Alabama vs Texas State | +2.5 | 60.5 | L 38 - 45 | O | N | |
| Sat 12/14 | South Alabama vs Western Michigan | -6.0 | 53.5 | W 30 - 23 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
| Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | |||||
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5 | 65.5 | W 28 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0 | 47.5 | L 18 - 28 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5 | 52.0 | L 7 - 52 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5 | 62.5 | W 18 - 16 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5 | 66.0 | L 9 - 41 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0 | 57.0 | W 44 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5 | 50.0 | W 34 - 31 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0 | 60.0 | L 19 - 55 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5 | 60.0 | W 27 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0 | 51.5 | W 28 - 21 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5 | 58.5 | L 32 - 40 | O | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5 | 54.5 | W 38 - 31 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2023)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | #31 (.28) | 43% (57) | 34.4 | 42% (80) | 3.24 (44) | 172 | 45% (35) | 268 | 4.67 (15) | #34 (.14) | 37% (17) | 25.2 | 35% (8) | 40% (44) | 3.32 (21) | 57.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 42% (73) | 25.8 | 43% (71) | 3.12 (65) | 148 | 41% (80) | 225 | 3.21 (114) | #110 (.25) | 42% (72) | 32.2 | 44% (80) | 41% (59) | 4.05 (92) | 60.9 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| ARST | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Overall Stats 2023
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Offense | 13 | 34.4 | 25.5 | 43% | 4.67 | 1.5 | 23 | 440 | 172 | 268 | 4.8 | 48% | 51% | 42% | 45% | 15% | .28 |
| ARST Defense | 13 | 32.2 | 27.2 | 42.3% | 4.05 | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | 49% | 44% | 41% | 15% | .25 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Defense | 13 | 25.2 | 22.8 | 36.6% | 3.32 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - | - | 54% | 45% | 35% | 40% | 16% | .14 |
| ARST Offense | 13 | 25.8 | 29 | 41.6% | 3.21 | 1 | 20 | 374 | 148 | 225 | 4.2 | 50% | 49% | 43% | 41% | 16% | .17 |
Additional Stats 2023
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 13 | 30:30 | 22.6 | 43% | 63% | 6.7 | 57.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 2 | 0 | 31.4 |
| Arkansas State | 13 | 26:17 | 19.8 | 36% | 35% | 6.2 | 60.9 | 1 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 30.4 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Offense | 13 | 48% (81) | 42% (80) | 36 | 171.9 | 4.8 | 28 (25) | .18 (49) | 3.24 (44) | 74% (71) | 10% (76) | 1.18 (6) |
| ARST Defense | 13 | 50% (65) | 44% (80) | - | - | - | - | .17 (88) | 3.09 (66) | 85% (124) | 10% (71) | 1.01 (78) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Defense | 13 | 54% (116) | 35% (8) | - | - | - | - | -.01 (12) | 2.69 (14) | 74% (74) | 11% (33) | 0.9 (27) |
| ARST Offense | 13 | 50% (72) | 43% (71) | 35.3 | 148.2 | 4.2 | 20 (61) | .16 (66) | 3.12 (65) | 69% (104) | 9% (58) | 1.05 (43) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Offense | 13 | 51% (55) | 45% (35) | 22.4 | 32.9 | 268.2 | 8.1 | 12 | 28 (23) | 11 (68) | .41 (26) | 1.7 (34) | 34% (104) | 39% (8) | .59 (7) | 5% (27) | 2.2 (34) |
| ARST Defense | 13 | 49% (73) | 41% (59) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (100) | .34 (105) | 1.6 (59) | 31% (83) | 24% (11) | .3 (66) | 5% (111) | 2.2 (116) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA Defense | 13 | 45% (19) | 40% (44) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13 (26) | .36 (109) | 1.8 (124) | 36% (12) | 27% (29) | .28 (47) | 5% (106) | 2.2 (104) |
| ARST Offense | 13 | 49% (65) | 41% (80) | 16 | 28.5 | 225.5 | 7.9 | 14.1 | 17 (85) | 9 (40) | .24 (83) | 1.7 (40) | 31% (59) | 31% (68) | .28 (88) | 6% (87) | 2.1 (53) |
South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99
Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.64 Arkansas State: -6.33
SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Arkansas State: -9.9
South Alabama: -3.64 Arkansas State: -6.33
SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Arkansas State: -9.9
Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99
South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8
South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8
South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 33
Arkansas State 27
Projected Total Points: 59
South Alabama 33
Arkansas State 27
Projected Total Points: 59
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/05 | Arkansas State | 18 | South Alabama | 16 | Arkansas State | South Alabama -2.5 | Arkansas State | 62.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 11/11 | South Alabama | 21 | Arkansas State | 14 | South Alabama | South Alabama -14.5 | Arkansas State | 54.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 10/29 | Arkansas State | 3 | South Alabama | 31 | South Alabama | South Alabama -9 | South Alabama | 52.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 10/30 | South Alabama | 31 | Arkansas State | 13 | South Alabama | South Alabama -9.5 | South Alabama | 67.0 | Under |
| 2020 | 11/28 | Arkansas State | 31 | South Alabama | 38 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -7 | South Alabama | 63.5 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/29 | South Alabama | 34 | Arkansas State | 30 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -10.5 | South Alabama | 53.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 11/03 | Arkansas State | 38 | South Alabama | 14 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -14 | Arkansas State | 61.5 | Under |
| 2017 | 11/11 | South Alabama | 24 | Arkansas State | 19 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -12.5 | South Alabama | 55.5 | Under |
| 2016 | 10/15 | Arkansas State | 17 | South Alabama | 7 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -6 | Arkansas State | 54.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 10/13 | South Alabama | 31 | Arkansas State | 49 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -6 | Arkansas State | 58.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/08 | Arkansas State | 45 | South Alabama | 10 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -9.5 | Arkansas State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/02 | South Alabama | 16 | Arkansas State | 17 | Arkansas State | South Alabama -2.5 | Arkansas State | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/13 | Arkansas State | 36 | South Alabama | 29 | Arkansas State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 7 | 7 | 3 Overs |
| South Alabama | 6 | 5 | 7 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 9 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 9 | 5 - 7 | 2 - 3 | 3 - 4 |
(#76) South Alabama Info
Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.64 #76
Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
South Alabama Notes
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.64 #76
Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Great Run Success 53%
Great Pass Success 47%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
South Alabama Notes
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
Power #76
#91Off #16
#62Def #78
#124Talent #93
#65SP+ #61
#104SP+ Off #47
#87SP+ Def #71
#119Rematch from Week 6
South Alabama 2.5 (62.5)
Arkansas State won vs South Alabama this year (18-16)
Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80°
Team Information
Injuries: USA | ARST
Depth Chart: USA | ARST
Rosters: USA | ARST
(#91) Arkansas State Info
Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Lopez | 205 | 311 | 66% | 2557 | 18 | 5 | 8.2 |
| Bishop Davenport | 48 | 79 | 61% | 604 | 3 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluff Bothwell | 112 | 834 | 13 | 7.4 | 59 |
| Kentrel Bullock | 152 | 832 | 7 | 5.5 | 59 |
| Giovanni Lopez | 82 | 465 | 7 | 5.7 | 50 |
| Bishop Davenport | 37 | 161 | 1 | 4.4 | 50 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Voisin | 34 | 407 | 0 | 12.0 | 28 |
| Kentrel Bullock | 15 | 153 | 1 | 10.2 | 28 |
| Anthony Eager | 10 | 133 | 2 | 13.3 | 38 |
| Fluff Bothwell | 12 | 90 | 0 | 7.5 | 28 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blayne Myrick | 101 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Darius McKenzie (Tr) | 72 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Jordan Scruggs | 70 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Wesley Miller | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney McBride | 39 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Parker Shattuck | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Thomas | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Norman | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amarion Fortenberry | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Wesley Miller | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Darius McKenzie (Tr) | 72 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 259 | 420 | 62% | 2783 | 16 | 10 | 6.6 |
| Timmy McClain (Tr) | 14 | 21 | 67% | 163 | 3 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Quez Cross | 115 | 638 | 2 | 5.5 | 49 |
| Jaylen Raynor | 137 | 387 | 3 | 2.8 | 40 |
| Devin Spencer | 40 | 206 | 0 | 5.2 | 23 |
| Malik Hornsby (Tr) | 5 | 86 | 1 | 17.2 | 73 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Rucker | 69 | 1053 | 7 | 15.3 | 79 |
| Ja'Quez Cross | 35 | 228 | 1 | 6.5 | 20 |
| Hunter Summers (Tr) | 9 | 116 | 2 | 12.9 | 32 |
| Miller McCrumby | 11 | 79 | 0 | 7.2 | 13 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Ham II (Tr) | 98 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Websley Etienne | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Dontay Joyner | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Tim Hardiman | 31 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Whitehead II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jayden Jones | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Ian Jeffries | 21 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Collins (Tr) | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontay Joyner | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Websley Etienne | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jordan Mahoney (Tr) | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |