South Alabama at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -2.5 (62.5) (-142) Open: -4.5
Arkansas State 18 - South Alabama: 16 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA 3rd straight Road Game
ARST coming off BYE
USA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -6 (SP+ USA -12.5)
Projected Score: USA: 33 - ARST: 27 (59)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 387 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Alabama vs North Texas	-6.0	61.5	L 38 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/7	South Alabama at Ohio	-1.5	55.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Thu 9/12	South Alabama vs Northwestern State	-36.5	60.5	W 87 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/19	South Alabama at App State	+8.0	62.5	W 48 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	South Alabama at LSU	+21.0	64.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/5	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-2.5	62.5	L 16 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	South Alabama vs Troy	-10.0	53.0	W 25 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/26	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-7.0	45.0	W 46 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	South Alabama at Louisiana	+6.5	60.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/23	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/29	South Alabama vs Texas State	+2.5	60.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/14	South Alabama vs Western Michigan	-6.0	53.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#31 (.28)	43% (57)	26.5	42% (80)	3.24 (44)	172	45% (35)	268	4.67 (15)	#34 (.14)	37% (17)	30.4	35% (8)	40% (44)	3.32 (21)	57.7	1.5	1.7
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	26.5	25.2	43%	4.67	1.5	23	440	172	268	4.8	48%	51%	42%	45%	15%	.28
ARST Defense	13	27.4	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	30.4	32	36.6%	3.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	35%	40%	16%	.14
ARST Offense	13	25.2	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	30:30	22.6	43%	63%	6.7	57.7	1.5	1.7	5.8	2	0	31.4
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	48% (81)	42% (80)	36	171.9	4.8	28 (25)	.18 (49)	3.24 (44)	74% (71)	10% (76)	1.18 (6)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	54% (116)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.69 (14)	74% (74)	11% (33)	0.9 (27)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	51% (55)	45% (35)	22.4	32.9	268.2	8.1	12	28 (23)	11 (68)	.41 (26)	1.7 (34)	34% (104)	39% (8)	.59 (7)	5% (27)	2.2 (34)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	45% (19)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.36 (109)	1.8 (124)	36% (12)	27% (29)	.28 (47)	5% (106)	2.2 (104)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 251.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.64 Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 33
Arkansas State 27

Projected Total Points: 59

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	15	South Alabama -8.5	Arkansas State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	8	3 Overs
South Alabama	6	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#76) USA at (#91) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#76	#91
SP+SP+	#61	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#102
OffenseOff	#61	#82
DefenseDef	#65	#121
Spec TeamsST	#111	#76
TalentTal	#95	#67
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#97

South Alabama Notes(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
(9/8) Bad Ls vs N Tex & Ohio. QBs OK, D bad so far
South Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#121
SuccessSuc	#57	#72
ExplosiveExp	#6	#62
PPAPPA	#31	#110
PowerPwr	#16	#124
SP+SP+	#47	#119
Pts POPPO	#15	#92
HavocHav	#61	#103

South Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#3	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#80
Run ExplRExp	#6	#78
PPAExp	#49	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

South Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#59
PPAExp	#26	#105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#39	#78
F7 HavocF7	#76	#71
DB HavocDB	#27	#111

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#65
SuccessSuc	#73	#17
ExplosiveExp	#35	#98
PPAPPA	#81	#34
PowerPwr	#62	#78
SP+SP+	#87	#71
Pts POPPO	#114	#21
HavocHav	#69	#65

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#101	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#8
Run ExplRExp	#43	#27
PPAExp	#66	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#52
TackleTak	-	#118

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#124
PPAExp	#83	#109
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#109
F7 HavocF7	#58	#33
DB HavocDB	#87	#106

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
South Alabama 2.5 (62.5)
Arkansas State won vs South Alabama this year (18-16)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (15-14)
Arkansas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Bishop Davenport	48	79	61%	604	3	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Kentrel Bullock	152	832	7	5.5	59
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Bishop Davenport	37	161	1	4.4	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamaal Pritchett	91	1126	9	12.4	75
Jeremiah Webb	36	649	5	18.0	52
Devin Voisin	34	407	0	12.0	28
Shamar Sandgren	19	208	1	10.9	21

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	101	8	2	3	2
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4
Jordan Scruggs	70	5	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtney McBride	39	11	5	3	0
Parker Shattuck	11	3	3	0	1
Tyler Thomas	19	4	3	0	0
Jordan Norman	25	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amarion Fortenberry	43	2	0	0	6
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4