Arkansas State at Marshall - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Marshall -2 (54.0) (-105) Open: -2.0 | 54.0
Marshall 35 - Arkansas State: 21 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MRSH is playing their 10th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Marshall -3 (SP+ ARST -0.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 25 - MRSH: 28 (54)
MRSH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
ARST Travel: 488 miles, 1 hrs behind

Thundering Herd (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
MRSH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Marshall's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Marshall vs UAlbany	-22.0	47.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	Marshall at East Carolina	-3.0	43.5	W 31 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Marshall vs Virginia Tech	-5.5	41.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Marshall vs Old Dominion	-14.5	47.0	W 41 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/7	Marshall at NC State	+6.5	44.0	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/14	Marshall at Georgia State	+2.0	53.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/19	Marshall vs James Madison	+5.0	49.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Marshall at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	47.0	L 6 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/4	Marshall at App State	+3.0	57.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Marshall vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	56.5	W 38 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Marshall at South Alabama	+10.5	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/25	Marshall vs Arkansas State	-2.0	54.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Tue 12/19	Marshall vs UTSA	+7.0	47.0	L 17 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
MRSH	.06	40%	30.8	43%	2.91	205	36%	192	2.83	-.05	30%	30.3	32%	29%	2.67	66.1	1.5	2.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MRSH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
MRSH Defense	13	30.3	24.7	29.9%	2.67	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	32%	29%	24%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
MRSH Offense	13	30.8	31.3	40.2%	2.83	1.5	21	397	205	192	4.5	61%	38%	43%	36%	20%	.06

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Marshall	13	31:49	20.8	37%	29%	7.2	66.1	1.5	2.8	6.3	2.8	4	31.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
MRSH Defense	13	44%	32%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	62%	14%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
MRSH Offense	13	61%	43%	45.8	205.2	4.5	20	.09	2.91	69%	14%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
MRSH Defense	13	55%	29%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	-.06	1.7	39%	19%	.02	10%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
MRSH Offense	13	38%	36%	17.3	28.2	192	6.8	11.1	16	10	.06	1.4	34%	25%	.12	6%	2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Marshall: -4.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Marshall: -8.2

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -4.245 #91
Marshall's Offense Rating: 11.11 #118
Marshall's Defense Rating: 6.26 #33
2023 Talent Rating: 478.59 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Marshall's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
Marshall's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #94
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Marshall 28
Arkansas State 25

Projected Total Points: 54

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Marshall's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/25	Marshall	35	Arkansas State	21	Marshall -2	Marshall	54.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Marshall	1	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#100) ARST at (#91) MRSH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	MRSH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#91
SP+SP+	#92	#94
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#63
OffenseOff	#54	#112
DefenseDef	#60	#13
Spec TeamsST	#113	#20
TalentTal	#92	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Arkansas State Injury Report

Marshall Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MRSH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#13
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#33
SP+SP+	#72	#96
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MRSH Def
Run GameRun	#72	#12
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#42

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MRSH Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#23
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Marshall on Offense


CategoryCat	MRSH Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#118	#95
SP+SP+	#78	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Marshall Run Game


CategoryCat	MRSH Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#113	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Marshall Pass Game


CategoryCat	MRSH Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#40	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MRSH 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Marshall -2.0 (54.0)
Marshall won vs Arkansas State this year (35-21)

Previous Matchups
Marshall beat Arkansas State in 2023 (35-21)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

MRSH's OC Clint Trickett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher	202	308	66%	2162	11	11	7.0
Cole Pennington	64	112	57%	695	0	6	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rasheen Ali	212	1140	15	5.4	64
Ethan Payne	83	335	1	4.0	64
Cam Fancher	120	273	4	2.3	63
Caleb McMillan	1	21	1	21.0	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Harrison	28	410	1	14.6	52
DeMarcus Harris	24	396	1	16.5	65
Caleb Coombs	39	310	2	7.9	24
Caleb McMillan	18	275	2	15.3	75

View Marshall's Full Roster

MRSH's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elias Neal	93	11	3	3	2
J.J. Roberts (Tr)	74	2	0	1	1
Owen Porter	62	14	4	13	2
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	62	7	2	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Burton	42	8	7	8	0
Elijah Alston	45	11	6	14	2
Owen Porter	62	14	4	13	2
Michael Green	41	8	4	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Micah Abraham	36	0	0	15
Dyoni Hill	54	1	0	10
Josh Moten	30	1	1	6