Arkansas State at Marshall Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Marshall Thundering Herd

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Marshall -2 (54.0) (-105) Open: -2.0 | 54.0
Marshall 35 - Arkansas State: 21 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MRSH is playing their 10th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Marshall -3 (SP+ ARST -0.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - MRSH: 29 (57)
MRSH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
ARST Travel: 488 miles, 1 hrs behind

Thundering Herd (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
MRSH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Marshall's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Marshall vs UAlbany	-22.0	47.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/9	Marshall at East Carolina	-3.0	43.5	W 31 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Marshall vs Virginia Tech	-5.5	41.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Marshall vs Old Dominion	-14.5	47.0	W 41 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/7	Marshall at NC State	+6.5	44.0	L 41 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/14	Marshall at Georgia State	+2.0	53.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/19	Marshall vs James Madison	+5.0	49.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Marshall at Coastal Carolina	-3.5	47.0	L 6 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/4	Marshall at App State	+3.0	57.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Marshall vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	56.5	W 38 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Marshall at South Alabama	+10.5	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/25	Marshall vs Arkansas State	-2.0	54.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Tue 12/19	Marshall vs UTSA	+7.0	47.0	L 17 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
MRSH	.06	40%	31.8	43%	2.91	205	36%	192	2.83	-.05	30%	23.1	32%	29%	2.67	66.1	1.5	2.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MRSH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.8	20.7	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
MRSH Defense	13	23.1	20.3	29.9%	2.67	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	32%	29%	24%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	32.2	37.3	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
MRSH Offense	13	31.8	36.3	40.2%	2.83	1.5	21	397	205	192	4.5	61%	38%	43%	36%	20%	.06

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Marshall	13	31:49	20.8	37%	29%	7.2	66.1	1.5	2.8	6.3	2.8	4	31.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
MRSH Defense	13	44%	32%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.6	62%	14%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
MRSH Offense	13	61%	43%	45.8	205.2	4.5	20	.09	2.91	69%	14%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
MRSH Defense	13	55%	29%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	-.06	1.7	39%	19%	.02	10%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
MRSH Offense	13	38%	36%	17.3	28.2	192	6.8	11.1	16	10	.06	1.4	34%	25%	.12	6%	2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Marshall: -4.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Marshall: -8.2

Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -4.245 #91
Marshall's Offense Rating: 11.11 #118
Marshall's Defense Rating: 6.26 #33
2023 Talent Rating: 436.00 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Marshall's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
Marshall's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #94
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Marshall 29
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 57

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

Marshall's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/25	Marshall	35	Arkansas State	21	Marshall	Marshall -2	Marshall	54.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Marshall	1	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Team Profile

,
,

Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Marshall

Power #100

#91

Off #85

#118

Def #95

#33

Talent #81

#104

SP+ #92

#94

SP+ Off #72

#78

SP+ Def #108

#96

Rematch from Week 13
Marshall -2.0 (54.0)
Marshall won vs Arkansas State this year (35-21)

Previous Matchups
Marshall beat Arkansas State in 2023 (35-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 48°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | MRSH
Depth Chart: ARST | MRSH
Rosters: ARST | MRSH

(#91) Marshall Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.245 #91
Offense Rating: 11.11 #118
Defense Rating: 6.26 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96
Talent Rating: 436.00 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10

Team Profile

,
,

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Reagan Ealy	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Mike Sharpe II	4	22	0	5.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46
Emmanuel Stevenson	28	203	1	7.3	29

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Blayne Toll	9	1	1	2	0
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3

Marshall's OC Clint Trickett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Cole Pennington	5	7	71%	57	1	0	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Fancher	99	365	3	3.7	76
Ethan Payne	65	323	7	5.0	36
Mason Pierce	2	11	0	5.5	9
Cole Pennington	2	10	0	5.0	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Pedro	83	889	4	10.7	46
Jayden Harrison	19	211	1	11.1	42
Mason Pierce	27	157	1	5.8	22
Caleb Coombs	8	123	0	15.4	27

View Marshall's Full Roster

Marshall's DC Jason Semore

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Roberts (Tr)	94	5	1	3	12
Michael Green	78	21	17	15	2
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	70	3	2	3	1
Dyoni Hill	33	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Green	78	21	17	15	2
Elijah Alston	19	4	3	1	1
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	70	3	2	3	1
J.J. Roberts (Tr)	94	5	1	3	12

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.J. Roberts (Tr)	94	5	1	3	12
Michael Green	78	21	17	15	2
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)	70	3	2	3	1