Arkansas State at Marshall - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Marshall -2 (54.0) (-105)  Open: -2.0 | 54.0
Marshall 35 - Arkansas State: 21  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MRSH is playing their 10th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Marshall -3   (SP+ ARST -0.5)

Projected Score: ARST: 26 - MRSH: 29 (55)
MRSH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
ARST Travel: 488 miles, 1 hrs behind
Thundering Herd (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Marshall's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Marshall vs UAlbany-22.047.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/9 Marshall at East Carolina-3.043.5W 31 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 Marshall vs Virginia Tech-5.541.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Marshall vs Old Dominion-14.547.0W 41 - 35ON
Sat 10/7 Marshall at NC State+6.544.0L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/14 Marshall at Georgia State+2.053.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/19 Marshall vs James Madison+5.049.0L 9 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Marshall at Coastal Carolina-3.547.0L 6 - 34UN
Sat 11/4 Marshall at App State+3.057.5L 9 - 31UN
Sat 11/11 Marshall vs Georgia Southern+1.556.5W 38 - 33OY
Sat 11/18 Marshall at South Alabama+10.544.5L 0 - 28UN
Sat 11/25 Marshall vs Arkansas State-2.054.0W 35 - 21OY
Tue 12/19 Marshall vs UTSA+7.047.0L 17 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Marshall's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)42% (73)27.143% (71)3.12 (65)14841% (80)2253.21 (114)#110 (.25)42% (72)30.444% (80)41% (59)4.05 (92)60.911.2
MRSH#101 (.13)39% (108)22.838% (121)2.7 (125)13341% (81)2262.7 (128)#31 (.13)38% (25)28.737% (20)40% (41)3.15 (18)58.92.21.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
MRSH#60 (.21)43% (66)45% (47)3.35 (18)20340% (88)1813.93 (66)#47 (.13)40% (46)43% (75)37% (21)3.87 (79)42.50.71.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1327.120.741.6%3.211203741482254.250%49%43%41%16%.17
MRSH Defense1328.723.837.9%3.151.4 - - - - - 48%51%37%40%18%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1330.436.342.3%4.051.2 - - - - - 50%49%44%41%15%.25
MRSH Offense1322.82838.7%2.72.2183591332263.848%50%38%41%20%.13

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:1719.836%35%6.260.911.26.21.8430.4
Marshall1329:2718.231%24%6.558.92.21.46.52.5428.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1350% (72)43% (71)35.3148.24.220 (61).16 (66)3.12 (65)69% (104)9% (58)1.05 (43)
MRSH Defense1348% (39)37% (20) - - - - .11 (43)2.81 (23)64% (23)11% (43)1.2 (126)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1350% (65)44% (80) - - - - .17 (88)3.09 (66)85% (124)10% (71)1.01 (78)
MRSH Offense1348% (86)38% (121)34.8132.73.821 (54).13 (79)2.7 (125)74% (62)13% (126)1.14 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1349% (65)41% (80)1628.5225.57.914.117 (85)9 (40).24 (83)1.7 (40)31% (59)31% (68).28 (88)6% (87)2.1 (53)
MRSH Defense1351% (91)40% (41) - - - - - - 13 (26).2 (28)1.6 (74)35% (34)30% (61).27 (46)7% (26)2.2 (107)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1349% (73)41% (59) - - - - - - 8 (100).34 (105)1.6 (59)31% (83)24% (11).3 (66)5% (111)2.2 (116)
MRSH Offense1350% (58)41% (81)20.632.7226.26.91112 (113)18 (128).19 (97)1.4 (126)34% (98)26% (105).23 (99)6% (86)2.1 (51)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23   Marshall: -4.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5   Marshall: -8.2




Marshall's Power Ratings
Marshall's Power Rating: -4.245 #91
Marshall's Offense Rating: 11.11 #118
Marshall's Defense Rating: 6.26 #33
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Marshall's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
Marshall's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #94
Marshall's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Marshall's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Marshall 29
Arkansas State 26


Total Points: 55

Marshall Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 28
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

Marshall's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25Marshall35Arkansas State21MarshallMarshall -2Marshall54.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Marshall111 Overs
Arkansas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30


Arkansas State has won 1 straight
Arkansas State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMRSHARST
OverallOver#51#47
OffenseOff#95#50
DefenseDef#10#51
Special TeamsST#20#91
PassingPass#89#78
RushingRush#81#50
Run BlockRBLK#59#22
Pass BlockPBLK#35#80
Route RunningWR Rt#97#44
TacklingTkl#37#29
Run DefenseR Def#10#64
Pass Rush DefPRush#15#87
Coverage DefCov#20#14

Rematch from Week 13
Marshall -2.0 (54.0)
Marshall won vs Arkansas State this year (35-21)

Previous Matchups
Marshall beat Arkansas State in 2023 (35-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | MRSH
Depth Chart: ARST | MRSH
Rosters: ARST | MRSH
(#91) Marshall Info
Power Rating: -4.245 #91
Offense Rating: 11.11 #118
Defense Rating: 6.26 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #94
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #96
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10


Marshall has lost 1 straight
Marshall has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Marshall Highlights
Marshall Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Marshall has a really good defense (#108)
Marshall defense is really good in red zone (#121)
Marshall has a good run defense (#98)
Marshall Defensive Line is very good (#57)
Marshall Secondary is very good (#88)
Marshall defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Marshall Deficiencies
Marshall has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Marshall Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Marshall Commits a Lot of Penalties (#85)
Marshall throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Marshall offense is really bad (#136)
Marshall Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#129)
Marshall offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Marshall run game is really bad (#133)
Marshall offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Marshall gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#122)


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005

Marshall's OC Clint Trickett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cam Fancher20230866%216211117.0
Cole Pennington6411257%695066.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rasheen Ali2121140155.464
Ethan Payne8333514.064
Cam Fancher12027342.363
Caleb McMillan121121.021
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Harrison28410114.652
DeMarcus Harris24396116.565
Caleb Coombs3931027.924
Caleb McMillan18275215.375

View Marshall's Full Roster
Marshall's DC Jason Semore
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elias Neal9311332
J.J. Roberts (Tr)742011
Owen Porter62144132
Stephen Dix Jr. (Tr)627241
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sam Burton428780
Elijah Alston45116142
Owen Porter62144132
Michael Green418460
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Abraham3600015
Dyoni Hill5410010
Josh Moten301016