Arkansas State at Texas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, November 19th 2022 (5:00 PM EST)
Texas State -6 (50.0)
Texas State 16 - Arkansas State: 13 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ TXST -2)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - TXST: 31 (57)
TXST Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
ARST Travel: 589 miles

Bobcats (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (9 - 27)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Texas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Texas State at Nevada	-2.0	51.5	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	Texas State vs Florida International	-13.5	62.5	W 41 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Texas State at Baylor	+30.0	53.0	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/24	Texas State vs Houston Christian	-26.5	65.0	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Texas State at James Madison	+22.0	51.5	L 13 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/8	Texas State vs App State	+19.5	54.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Texas State at Troy	+16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Texas State vs Southern Miss	+2.5	43.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Texas State at UL Monroe	+2.5	52.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Texas State at South Alabama	+16.0	46.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/19	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-6.0	50.0	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Texas State vs Louisiana	+5.0	44.0	L 13 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2
TXST	.18	42%	36.5	46%	3.43	149	39%	193	4.12	.31	48%	29	47%	49%	4.18	58.8	1.7	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17
TXST Defense	12	29	28.3	47.9%	4.18	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	49%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35
TXST Offense	12	36.5	38	41.8%	4.12	1.7	20	342	149	193	4	48%	50%	46%	39%	21%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6
Texas State	12	28:18	20.1	33%	67%	5.8	58.8	1.7	1.1	4.7	1.5	1	26.8

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79
TXST Defense	12	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.24	3.51	81%	10%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3
TXST Offense	12	48%	46%	36.9	149.2	4	17	.16	3.43	84%	14%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	.41	1.4	30%	40%	.54	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3
TXST Offense	12	50%	39%	18.6	32.3	193.1	6	10.4	15	12	.22	1.5	36%	28%	.36	7%	2.2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Texas State: -3.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -13.0 Texas State: -11.5

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -3.25 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5 #102
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #110
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #79

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 31
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 57

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2022 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Arkansas State	31	Texas State	30	Texas State -14	Arkansas State	63.5	Under
2024	10/12	Texas State	41	Arkansas State	9	Texas State -13.5	Texas State	66.0	Under
2023	11/18	Arkansas State	77	Texas State	31	Texas State -3.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2022	11/19	Texas State	16	Arkansas State	13	Texas State -6	Arkansas State	50.0	Under
2021	11/27	Arkansas State	22	Texas State	24	Arkansas State -2	Texas State	62.0	Under
2020	11/21	Texas State	47	Arkansas State	45	Arkansas State -4.5	Texas State	69.5	Over
2019	10/26	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	14	Arkansas State -11.5	Arkansas State	60.5	Under
2018	11/24	Texas State	7	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State -13	Arkansas State	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Arkansas State	30	Texas State	12	Arkansas State -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2016	12/03	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	36	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	54.0	Under
2015	12/05	Arkansas State	55	Texas State	17	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Over
2014	11/20	Texas State	45	Arkansas State	27	Arkansas State -6.5	Texas State	58.0	Over
2013	11/16	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	21	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	5	5	4 Overs
Arkansas State	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	8 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 4	3 - 4

(#) ARST at (#) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TXST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#102
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#42
OffenseOff	#91	#98
DefenseDef	#108	#3
Spec TeamsST	#55	#99
TalentTal	#88	#90
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Texas State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#112	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#98	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#113	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Texas State -6.0 (50.0)
Texas State won vs Arkansas State this year (16-13)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Texas State last year (31-30)
Texas State beat Arkansas State in 2024 (41-9)
Arkansas State beat Texas State in 2023 (77-31)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TXST's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD