Georgia Southern at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia Southern logo Georgia Southern Eagles at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Georgia Southern -1.5 (59.5) (-110)  Open: -3.0
Arkansas State 34 - Georgia Southern: 24  (Sun Belt)

 
Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5  (SP+ ARST -2)
Projected Score: GASO: 26 - ARST: 31 (57)
GASO Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
GASO Travel: 561 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia Southern at Fresno State+2.554.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia Southern at USC+29.061.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 9/13 Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State-3.059.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Southern vs Maine-22.057.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Georgia Southern at James Madison+14.554.5L 10 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss+3.059.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/18 Georgia Southern vs Georgia State-6.558.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State-1.559.5L 24 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 Georgia Southern at App State+4.562.5W 25 - 23UY
Sat 11/15 Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina-3.059.5W 45 - 40OY
Sat 11/22 Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion+10.062.0L 10 - 45UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia Southern at Marshall+10.561.5W 24 - 19UY
Mon 12/29 Georgia Southern vs App State-10.058.5W 29 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GASO#39 (.21)45% (41)27.946% (43)3.2 (22)13745% (36)2344.01 (40)#133 (.3)49% (133)32.351% (134)47% (125)4.45 (130)47.30.91.2
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)46% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)47% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GASO Offense1327.919.545%4.010.9203711372344.249%49%46%45%14%.21
ARST Defense1327.427.243.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GASO Defense1332.335.349.1%4.451.2 - - - - - 51%47%51%47%15%.3
ARST Offense1325.22942%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia Southern1327:0920.445%53%547.30.91.24.30.9128.5
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GASO Offense1349% (75)46% (43)32.5136.74.216 (60).16 (45)3.2 (22)73% (60)9% (54)0.92 (87)
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GASO Defense1351% (86)51% (134) - - - - .28 (135)3.4 (134)74% (88)9% (83)1.07 (116)
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GASO Offense1349% (66)45% (36)19.631.1233.87.511.925 (33)8 (88).3 (48)1.6 (64)29% (38)36% (20).46 (17)5% (30)2.1 (59)
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GASO Defense1347% (55)47% (125) - - - - - - 8 (75).37 (117)1.5 (54)29% (105)37% (133).36 (101)6% (73)1.8 (20)
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -11.87  #118
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 11.75  #53
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.62  #135
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00  #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3  #111
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #66
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #131

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.87   Arkansas State: -7.31

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.3   Arkansas State: -9.8




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.31  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 31
Georgia Southern 26


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 29
Georgia Southern 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 31
Georgia Southern 26

Total Points: 57
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Arkansas State34Georgia Southern24Georgia Southern -1.5Arkansas State59.5Under
202110/02Georgia Southern59Arkansas State33Georgia Southern -1.5Georgia Southern66.5Over
201911/23Arkansas State38Georgia Southern33Arkansas State -1Arkansas State52.5Over
201809/29Georgia Southern28Arkansas State21Arkansas State -3Georgia Southern53.5Under
201710/04Georgia Southern25Arkansas State43Arkansas State -9Arkansas State54.5Over
201610/05Arkansas State27Georgia Southern26Georgia Southern -5.5Arkansas State53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State443 Overs
Georgia Southern223 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 15 - 12 - 03 - 1
Road Teams1 - 51 - 51 - 30 - 2

(#118) GASO at (#108) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatGASOARST
Power RatePwr #118 #108
SP+SP+ #111 #105
Perf GradeGrade #112 #93
OffenseOff #61 #86
DefenseDef #134 #94
Spec TeamsST #115 #62
TalentTal #99 #75
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #79
Georgia Southern Notes
(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Georgia Southern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
GASO OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #94
SuccessSuc #41 #90
ExplosiveExp #67 #95
PPAPPA #39 #89
PowerPwr #53 #102
SP+SP+ #66 #104
Pts POPPO #40 #93
HavocHav #44 #70
Georgia Southern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
GASO OffARST Def
Run GameRun #71 #79
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #81
Run ExplRExp #87 #92
PPAExp #45 #80
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #45
Stuff RateStuff #45 #64
TackleTak -  #48
Georgia Southern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
GASO OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #75 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #36 #93
Pass ExplPExl #64 #89
PPAExp #48 #97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #20 #82
F7 HavocF7 #54 #39
DB HavocDB #30 #109
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffGASO Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #134
SuccessSuc #71 #133
ExplosiveExp #124 #82
PPAPPA #112 #133
PowerPwr #102 #135
SP+SP+ #97 #131
Pts POPPO #110 #130
HavocHav #111 #84
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffGASO Def
Run GameRun #115 #136
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #134
Run ExplRExp #125 #116
PPAExp #125 #135
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #134
Stuff RateStuff #111 #116
TackleTak -  #79
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffGASO Def
Pass GamePass #78 #81
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #125
Pass ExplPExl #122 #54
PPAExp #86 #117
Pass Block/RushP Blk #13 #133
F7 HavocF7 #89 #83
DB HavocDB #125 #73
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Georgia Southern 1.5 (59.5)
Arkansas State won vs Georgia Southern this year (34-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
JC French23136563%27531987.5
Turner Helton (Tr)142654%74102.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
OJ Arnold13388556.762
JC French12127762.321
David Mbadinga4919614.016
Taeo Todd2610203.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Camden Brown (Tr)6310491416.773
Marcus Sanders Jr.45725416.152
Dalen Cobb5247139.143
OJ Arnold17201111.841

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jusfin Meyers821015
Brandon Tyson (Tr)792062
Brendan Harrington (Tr)772003
Ayden Jackson714013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MJ Stroud3115762
Caleb Moore (Tr)213221
CJ Allen162110
Devin Collier201100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tracy Hill Jr.394106
Jusfin Meyers821015
Elijah McDowell80004

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004