Arkansas State at Texas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Texas State Bobcats

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -13.5 (66.0) (-535) Open: -11.0
Texas State 41 - Arkansas State: 9 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Texas State -15.5 (SP+ TXST -15)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - TXST: 39 (62)
TXST Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
ARST Travel: 589 miles

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (39 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TXST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar	-26
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40	O	N
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52	O	N
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.8	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	32.2	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)	36.5	49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)	24.5	38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
TXST	#25 (.25)	48% (17)		49% (14)	3.41 (11)	194	48% (10)	245	3.89 (72)	#50 (.14)	39% (31)		38% (21)	39% (54)	3.47 (33)	56.5	1.6	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.8	20.7	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17
TXST Defense	13	24.5	22.1	38.6%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	38%	39%	19%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	32.2	37.3	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31
TXST Offense	13	36.5	38.7	48%	3.89	1.6	24	438	194	245	5.2	52%	47%	49%	48%	13%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6
Texas State	13	28:17	24.1	45%	64%	6.1	56.5	1.6	1.2	6.9	2.4	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)
TXST Defense	13	51% (72)	38% (21)	-	-	-	-	.12 (67)	2.97 (60)	68% (34)	14% (7)	1.13 (123)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)
TXST Offense	13	52% (59)	49% (14)	37.1	193.7	5.2	25 (41)	.16 (49)	3.41 (11)	75% (53)	8% (35)	0.88 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)
TXST Defense	13	48% (56)	39% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.19 (45)	1.6 (62)	35% (23)	29% (44)	.3 (65)	5% (106)	2.2 (110)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)
TXST Offense	13	47% (86)	48% (10)	20.9	30.2	244.7	8.1	11.7	30 (9)	13 (103)	.4 (13)	1.5 (91)	29% (31)	34% (41)	.32 (74)	5% (44)	1.7 (131)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Texas State: 6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Texas State: 5.4

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.45 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 39
Arkansas State 23

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas State 37
Arkansas State 19

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 36
Arkansas State 23

Total Points: 59

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Arkansas State	31	Texas State	30	Texas State -14	Arkansas State	63.5	Under
2024	10/12	Texas State	41	Arkansas State	9	Texas State -13.5	Texas State	66.0	Under
2023	11/18	Arkansas State	77	Texas State	31	Texas State -3.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2022	11/19	Texas State	16	Arkansas State	13	Texas State -6	Arkansas State	50.0	Under
2021	11/27	Arkansas State	22	Texas State	24	Arkansas State -2	Texas State	62.0	Under
2020	11/21	Texas State	47	Arkansas State	45	Arkansas State -4.5	Texas State	69.5	Over
2019	10/26	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	14	Arkansas State -11.5	Arkansas State	60.5	Under
2018	11/24	Texas State	7	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State -13	Arkansas State	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Arkansas State	30	Texas State	12	Arkansas State -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2016	12/03	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	36	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	54.0	Under
2015	12/05	Arkansas State	55	Texas State	17	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Over
2014	11/20	Texas State	45	Arkansas State	27	Arkansas State -6.5	Texas State	58.0	Over
2013	11/16	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	21	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas State	5	5	4 Overs
Arkansas State	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	8 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 4	3 - 4

(#91) ARST at (#52) TXST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TXST
Power RatePwr	#91	#52
SP+SP+	#104	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#16
OffenseOff	#82	#10
DefenseDef	#121	#27
Spec TeamsST	#76	#43
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#82

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Texas State Notes(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
(9/12) Spread Off fun. McCloud looks great w/ weapons
(9/8) Dog fight W over Lamar? 2 TOs, 156 penalty yds!
(9/8) Torched UTSA, McCould good, Run D great
(7/30) OL has 3/5 back. RB Mahdi great/depth. WR v good.
Texas State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#27
SuccessSuc	#91	#31
ExplosiveExp	#102	#107
PPAPPA	#81	#50
PowerPwr	#62	#29
SP+SP+	#87	#82
Pts POPPO	#63	#33
HavocHav	#80	#26

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#101	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#21
Run ExplRExp	#99	#123
PPAExp	#72	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#31
TackleTak	-	#66

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#62
PPAExp	#90	#45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#8
F7 HavocF7	#48	#7
DB HavocDB	#115	#106

Texas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#121
SuccessSuc	#17	#124
ExplosiveExp	#115	#91
PPAPPA	#25	#126
PowerPwr	#38	#124
SP+SP+	#20	#119
Pts POPPO	#72	#127
HavocHav	#29	#80

Texas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#44	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#131
Run ExplRExp	#110	#85
PPAExp	#49	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#91
TackleTak	-	#128

Texas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#103
PPAExp	#13	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#78
F7 HavocF7	#35	#82
DB HavocDB	#44	#74

Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 88° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Texas State -13.5 (66.0)
Texas State won vs Arkansas State this year (41-9)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Arkansas State last year (41-9)
Arkansas State beat Texas State in 2023 (77-31)
Texas State beat Arkansas State in 2022 (16-13)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Tr)	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud (Tr)	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams (Tr)	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk (Tr)	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal (Tr)	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris (Tr)	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker (Tr)	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Ben Bell	13	6	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5