Arkansas State at App State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at App State MountaineersApp State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (2:30 PM EST)
App State -1.0 (54.5) (-105)  Open: -2.0 | 56.5
Arkansas State 30 - App State: 29  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
APP 2nd straight Home Game
APP is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -0.5  (SP+ ARST -1)

Projected Score: ARST: 26 - APP: 25 (51)
APP Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
ARST Travel: 502 miles, 1 hrs behind
Mountaineers (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (27 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+16.559.5L 14 - 47ON
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State-1.553.5W 27 - 23UY
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-3.055.5W 41 - 20OY
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-10.548.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+12.560.5L 21 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-4.562.5L 23 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+21.053.5L 10 - 58ON
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall+3.557.5W 26 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-1.054.5L 29 - 30ON
Mon 12/29 App State vs Georgia Southern+10.058.5L 10 - 29UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#111 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (101)2.65 (119)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (92)27.444% (83)44% (98)3.9 (89)57.81.81.3
APP#101 (.12)42% (72)24.244% (65)3.03 (56)12841% (76)2573.5 (91)#83 (.18)45% (116)29.846% (108)46% (115)4.24 (121)62.81.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22142%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09
APP Defense1329.826.745.2%4.241.5 - - - - - 46%52%46%46%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.843.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%46%44%44%16%.19
APP Offense1324.22742%3.51.7213851282574.143%55%44%41%17%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.23330.4
App State1328:1721.133%63%6.862.81.71.55.82.2128
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1342% (123)40% (101)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (119)70% (80)10% (91)0.8 (126)
APP Defense1346% (20)46% (108) - - - - .08 (59)2.86 (61)69% (54)10% (65)0.83 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (83) - - - - .12 (82)2.75 (44)69% (49)11% (40)1.01 (95)
APP Offense1343% (117)44% (65)31.5128.44.112 (99).08 (84)3.03 (56)69% (90)8% (27)0.79 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (123)30% (45)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (28)
APP Defense1352% (117)46% (115) - - - - - - 13 (22).31 (95)1.5 (47)31% (70)33% (107).37 (104)7% (35)2.1 (97)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1346% (46)44% (98) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (100)1.6 (89)30% (88)32% (97).42 (118)5% (108)2.2 (119)
APP Offense1355% (22)41% (76)2339.1256.56.611.223 (33)15 (108).21 (90)1.5 (85)32% (88)33% (36).31 (68)9% (133)1.9 (116)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -10.41  #102
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 10.99  #81
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 21.40  #117
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.41   App State: -10.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.8   App State: -10.6




App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -10.39  #119
App State's Offense Rating: 4.88  #118
App State's Defense Rating: 20.06  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.6  #108
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 26
App State 25


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 27
App State 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 26
App State 25

Total Points: 51
App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.7

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29App State29Arkansas State30App State -1.0Arkansas State54.5Over
202111/06Arkansas State14App State48Appalachian State -21.5App State67.5Under
202010/22App State45Arkansas State17Appalachian State -14App State69.5Under
201810/09Arkansas State9App State35Appalachian State -10.5App State59.5Under
201511/05App State27Arkansas State40Appalachian State -12.5Arkansas State56.0Over
201411/15Arkansas State32App State37Arkansas State -15App State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
App State442 Overs
Arkansas State223 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 51 - 51 - 30 - 2
Road Teams5 - 15 - 12 - 03 - 1

(#102) ARST at (#119) APP
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTAPP
Net PPPPPP #95 #106
Power RatePwr #102 #119
SP+SP+ #105 #108
Perf GradeGrade #79 #94
OffenseOff #76 #100
DefenseDef #82 #54
Spec TeamsST #39 #77
TalentTal #75 #84
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #101
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
App State Notes
(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffAPP Def
PPPOffPPP #115 #102
Perf GradePerf #76 #54
SuccessSuc #71 #116
ExplosiveExp #126 #34
PPAPPA #111 #83
PowerPwr #81 #108
SP+SP+ #97 #119
Pts POPPO #110 #121
HavocHav #111 #52
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #102 #28
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #108
Run ExplRExp #126 #10
PPAExp #125 #59
Run BlockR Blk #65 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #61
Stuff RateStuff #111 #87
TackleTak -  #48
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #72 #91
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #115
Pass ExplPExl #123 #47
PPAExp #86 #95
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #17
F7 HavocF7 #91 #65
DB HavocDB #125 #35
App State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatAPP OffARST Def
PPPDefPPP #67 #96
Perf GradePerf #100 #82
SuccessSuc #72 #92
ExplosiveExp #107 #93
PPAPPA #101 #89
PowerPwr #118 #117
SP+SP+ #92 #104
Pts POPPO #91 #89
HavocHav #94 #72
App State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffARST Def
Run GameRun #82 #80
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #83
Run ExplRExp #131 #95
PPAExp #84 #82
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #44
Stuff RateStuff #29 #64
TackleTak -  #34
App State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatAPP OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #97 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #98
Pass ExplPExl #85 #89
PPAExp #90 #100
Pass Block/RushP Blk #117 #55
F7 HavocF7 #27 #40
DB HavocDB #133 #108
Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 33°
Rematch from Week 14
App State -1.0 (54.5)
Arkansas State won at App State this year (30-29)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5513871
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004

APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)17486845.039
Jaquari Lewis14061864.427
Matthew Wilson1211019.228
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dalton Stroman35665419.072
Jaden Barnes (Tr)55608711.159
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Izayah Cummings (Tr)37374110.130

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares10110223
DJ Burks732005
Zyeir Gamble724004
Kyle Arnholt561110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne437552
Aiden Benton385580
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)224432
Thomas Davis256320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson4420011
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)491005
DJ Burks732005