Arkansas State at App State Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves at App State Mountaineers

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kidd Brewer Stadium - Boone, NC (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)

APP 2nd straight Home Game
APP is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -0.5 (SP+ APP -1)
Projected Score: ARST: 29 - APP: 28 (58)
ARST Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
ARST Travel: 502 miles, 1 hrs behind

Mountaineers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 33 (29 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-12.5
Sat 9/6	Arkansas State vs Arkansas	+23
Sat 9/13	Arkansas State vs Iowa State	+19.5
Sat 9/20	Arkansas State at Kennesaw State	-7
Sat 9/27	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-1.5
Sat 10/4	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+4
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+11
Sat 10/25	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+5
Sat 11/1	Arkansas State at Troy	+9
Sat 11/8	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	-0
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+2
Sat 11/29	Arkansas State at App State	-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

App State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	App State vs Charlotte	-8.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	App State vs Lindenwood	-9
Sat 9/13	App State at Southern Miss	+8
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	App State at Boise State	+26.5
Sat 10/4	App State vs Oregon State	+8.5
Sat 10/11	App State at Georgia State	+0
Sat 10/18	App State vs Coastal Carolina	+0.5
Sat 10/25	App State at Old Dominion	+6.5
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	App State vs Georgia Southern	+8
Sat 11/15	App State at James Madison	+18.5
Sat 11/22	App State vs Marshall	-5.5
Sat 11/29	App State vs Arkansas State	+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.8	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	32.2	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)	26.6	45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)	32.9	51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
APP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.8	20.7	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17
APP Defense	11	32.9	24.8	49%	4.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	51%	47%	12%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	32.2	37.3	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31
APP Offense	11	26.6	29.4	43.6%	3.89	2	24	430	157	273	4.5	48%	51%	45%	43%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6
App State	11	30:06	23.9	43%	59%	6	57	2	1.2	4.3	2.1	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)
APP Defense	11	56% (124)	51% (130)	-	-	-	-	.26 (128)	3.41 (125)	77% (94)	9% (89)	1.04 (94)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)
APP Offense	11	48% (81)	45% (58)	34.9	157.4	4.5	13 (105)	.1 (89)	3.01 (75)	80% (21)	7% (15)	0.89 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)
APP Defense	11	44% (10)	47% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.37 (119)	1.5 (46)	26% (133)	35% (115)	.38 (100)	2% (134)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)
APP Offense	11	51% (53)	43% (62)	19.8	35.6	272.9	7.7	13.8	23 (41)	16 (124)	.32 (41)	1.8 (13)	35% (122)	37% (15)	.46 (19)	9% (130)	2.2 (18)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -12.25 App State: -11.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 App State: -8.8

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -11.78 #123
App State's Offense Rating: 6.35 #114
App State's Defense Rating: 26.11 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 548.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #94
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
App State 28

Projected Total Points: 58

App State Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 32.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.8

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	11/06	Arkansas State	14	App State	48	App State	Appalachian State -21.5	App State	67.5	Under
2020	10/22	App State	45	Arkansas State	17	App State	Appalachian State -14	App State	69.5	Under
2018	10/09	Arkansas State	9	App State	35	App State	Appalachian State -10.5	App State	59.5	Under
2015	11/05	App State	27	Arkansas State	40	Arkansas State	Appalachian State -12.5	Arkansas State	56.0	Over
2014	11/15	Arkansas State	32	App State	37	App State	Arkansas State -15	App State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	4	4	1 Overs
Arkansas State	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 4	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 1	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1

(#99) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122
Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Arkansas State Notes
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 2 portal adds
(3/23) OL 4/5 back. OT Smith a turnstile, lots of depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
(3/23) Def added 9 portals, fired most staff LY
(3/23) New DC Dreiling was Utah St Int HC LY
(3/23) HC Jones improved wins each year. Bowl LY

Arkansas State Ratings Matchup App State

Power #99

#123

Off #62

#114

Def #130

#124

Talent #75

#98

SP+ #100

#98

SP+ Off #68

#94

SP+ Def #122

#103

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kidd Brewer Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | APP
Depth Chart: ARST | APP
Rosters: ARST | APP

(#123) App State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.78 #123
Offense Rating: 6.35 #114
Defense Rating: 26.11 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #94
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #103
Talent Rating: 548.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.78 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

App State Notes
(3/27) QB portals Swann (LSU) or Kohl (ISU)?
(3/23) RB rebuild. Dubinion (Ark), Keith (Tenn) added
(3/23) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/23) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 5 portal adds (3 FBS)
(3/23) Def bad LY, return some. DL weak. CB's good?
(3/23) Loggains was S Car OC, in for fired S. Clark
(3/23) Loggains will OC, DC Smith co-DC @ Mizzu

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Ethan Crawford (Tr)	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Kenyon Clay (Tr)	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford (Tr)	97	209	3	2.2	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Ja'Quez Cross	35	228	1	6.5	20
Kenyon Clay (Tr)	21	225	1	10.7	37
Nazeviah Burris (Tr)	22	209	1	9.5	22

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
AG McGhee (Tr)	54	1	0	0	0
Christopher Boti	36	1	1	1	1
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)	26	2	1	3	1
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15	0
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)	26	2	1	3	1
Christopher Boti	36	1	1	1	1
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Avante Dickerson (Tr)	19	2	0	3
James Reed III	7	1	0	2
Marcus Bradley	7	1	1	1

App State's OC Vacant

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	2	4	50%	10	0	0	2.5
Billy Wiles	0	1	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)	56	335	2	6.0	23
Khalifa Keith (Tr)	21	100	1	4.8	23
Jaylon Calhoun	1	2	0	2.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalton Stroman	20	307	5	15.4	47
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)	16	122	0	7.6	23
Kanen Hamlett	4	35	2	8.8	19
Izayah Cummings (Tr)	3	33	0	11.0	19

View App State's Full Roster

App State's DC D. J. Smith

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Arnholt	54	2	0	2	0
DJ Burks	52	3	0	0	0
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1	0
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Thomas Davis	35	6	4	1	0
Shawn Collins	16	3	2	4	1
Rondarius Porter (Tr)	7	1	1	0	0
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne	9	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Favors	33	1	0	4
Cristian Conyer (Tr)	9	0	0	3
Ethan Johnson	22	0	1	2