Southern Miss at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Southern Mississippi -7 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 44 - Southern Miss: 37 (Sun Belt)

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 3rd straight Home Game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
USM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -8 (SP+ ARST -8)
Projected Score: USM: 21 - ARST: 29 (51)
USM Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
USM Travel: 322 miles

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USM Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.11	39%	28.8	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	27.4	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	13	28.8	28.4	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	13	27.4	27.6	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 425.21 #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -10.22 Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -15.2 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
Southern Miss 21

Projected Total Points: 51

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Arkansas State	21	Southern Miss	27	Southern Miss -6.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2024	10/19	Southern Miss	28	Arkansas State	44	Arkansas State -7	Arkansas State	57.0	Over
2023	09/23	Arkansas State	44	Southern Miss	37	Southern Mississippi -7	Arkansas State	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	Southern Miss	20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Mississippi -4.5	Arkansas State	53.0	Under
2008	09/13	Arkansas State	24	Southern Miss	27
2007	11/24	Southern Miss	16	Arkansas State	10
2005	12/20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Miss	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	2	4	2 Overs
Southern Miss	5	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#119) USM at (#100) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USM	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#119	#100
SP+SP+	#118	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#58
OffenseOff	#120	#54
DefenseDef	#105	#60
Spec TeamsST	#108	#113
TalentTal	#106	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Southern Miss Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#116	#95
SP+SP+	#85	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#55	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#123	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#117	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#102
SP+SP+	#72	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#72	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#53
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Southern Miss 7.0 (46.5)
Arkansas State won vs Southern Miss this year (44-37)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State last year (27-21)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2024 (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Billy Wiles (Tr)	158	290	55%	1916	11	7	6.6
Ethan Crawford	19	38	50%	246	3	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Frank Gore Jr.	231	1131	10	4.9	75
Rodrigues Clark (Tr)	76	429	2	5.6	59
Kenyon Clay	40	179	1	4.5	28
Ethan Crawford	42	96	1	2.3	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakarius Caston	33	621	6	18.8	80
Latreal Jones	36	498	3	13.8	43
Tiaquelin Mims	39	445	2	11.4	37
Frank Gore Jr.	27	221	3	8.2	33

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Dan O'Brien (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Lawrence (Tr)	72	1	1	0	1
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	0	5
Hayes Maples	51	1	1	3	0
Swayze Bozeman	51	4	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalil Clemons	26	10	6	6	1
Josh Ratcliff	28	4	4	0	0
Averie Habas	13	3	3	1	0
Ja'Len Sims	28	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jay Stanley	55	2	0	5
Markel McLaurin	31	3	2	5
MJ Daniels (Tr)	26	0	0	4

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5