Troy at Arkansas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 26th 2022 (3:30 PM EST)
Troy -13.5 (43.5)
Troy 48 - Arkansas State: 19 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (12 - 2) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ TROY -21)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - ARST: 26 (52)
TROY Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TROY Travel: 389 miles

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Troy at Ole Miss	+21.5	56.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Troy vs Alabama A&M	-37.5	52.0	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/17	Troy at App State	+14.0	52.0	L 28 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Troy vs Marshall	+3.0	51.5	W 16 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Troy at Western Kentucky	+5.0	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Troy vs Southern Miss	-7.0	44.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Troy vs Texas State	-16.5	47.0	W 17 - 14	U	N
Thu 10/20	Troy at South Alabama	+3.0	47.0	W 10 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Troy at Louisiana	-3.5	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Troy vs Army	-8.5	45.5	W 10 - 9	U	N
Sat 11/19	Troy vs UL Monroe	-15.0	48.5	W 34 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Troy at Arkansas State	-13.5	43.5	W 48 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	49.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Fri 12/16	Troy vs UTSA	-2.0	55.5	W 18 - 12	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.12	39%	23.5	37%	2.65	100	41%	239	2.86	.13	38%	23.9	38%	39%	3.89	44.5	1.8	2.3
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	12	23.5	23.4	39.1%	2.86	1.8	18	338	100	239	3.3	41%	59%	37%	41%	18%	.12
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	12	23.9	25.9	38.4%	3.89	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	38%	39%	18%	.13
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	12	27:37	18.3	40%	63%	5	44.5	1.8	2.3	7.5	3.2	3	30.2
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	12	41%	37%	30.5	99.8	3.3	18		2.65	61%	12%	1.02
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	12	55%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.84	91%	13%	0.9
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	12	59%	41%	22.1	34.9	238.7	6.8	10.8	15	10	.22	1.5	32%	31%	.35	6%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	12	45%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.24	1.7	34%	25%	.25	5%	2.2
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: NR
Troy's Offense Rating: NR
Troy's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Troy's 2022 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #44
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #108
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.2 #8

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: Arkansas State: -4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 8.1 Arkansas State: -13.0

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2022 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 26
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 52

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Troy	10	Arkansas State	23	Troy -7.5	Arkansas State	52.5	Under
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	10	3	3 Overs
Troy	8	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 10	1 - 8	1 - 7	0 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 8	8 - 1	1 - 0	7 - 1

(#) TROY at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#44	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#14	#93
OffenseOff	#29	#91
DefenseDef	#17	#108
Spec TeamsST	#68	#55
TalentTal	#91	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Troy Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#108	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#38	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#109	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#112	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#112

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#18
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Troy 13.5 (43.5)
Troy won at Arkansas State this year (48-19)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD