Arkansas State at South Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (5:00 PM EST)
South Alabama -14.5 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
South Alabama 21 - Arkansas State: 14 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA is playing their 4th straight game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -13.5 (SP+ USA -11)
Projected Score: ARST: 20 - USA: 34 (54)
USA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 387 miles

Jaguars (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (32 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

South Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Alabama at Tulane	+6.0	51.0	L 17 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	South Alabama vs SE Louisiana	-24.0	59.5	W 35 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Alabama at Oklahoma State	+7.0	49.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Alabama vs Central Michigan	-16.5	46.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	South Alabama at James Madison	+1.0	48.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-11.0	51.5	W 55 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-18.5	51.0	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/28	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-11.5	55.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Thu 11/2	South Alabama at Troy	+5.5	44.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-14.5	54.5	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/18	South Alabama vs Marshall	-10.5	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	South Alabama at Texas State	-6.5	57.0	L 44 - 52	O	N
Sat 12/23	South Alabama at Eastern Michigan	-18.0	43.0	W 59 - 10	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	27.1	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	30.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
USA	#31 (.28)	43% (57)	33.1	42% (80)	3.24 (44)	172	45% (35)	268	4.67 (15)	#34 (.14)	37% (17)	21	35% (8)	40% (44)	3.32 (21)	57.7	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)		53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)		39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	27.1	20.7	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
USA Defense	13	21	16.8	36.6%	3.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	35%	40%	16%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	30.4	36.3	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
USA Offense	13	33.1	31.5	43%	4.67	1.5	23	440	172	268	4.8	48%	51%	42%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
South Alabama	13	30:30	22.6	43%	63%	6.7	57.7	1.5	1.7	5.8	2	0	31.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
USA Defense	13	54% (116)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.69 (14)	74% (74)	11% (33)	0.9 (27)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
USA Offense	13	48% (81)	42% (80)	36	171.9	4.8	28 (25)	.18 (49)	3.24 (44)	74% (71)	10% (76)	1.18 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
USA Defense	13	45% (19)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.36 (109)	1.8 (124)	36% (12)	27% (29)	.28 (47)	5% (106)	2.2 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
USA Offense	13	51% (55)	45% (35)	22.4	32.9	268.2	8.1	12	28 (23)	11 (68)	.41 (26)	1.7 (34)	34% (104)	39% (8)	.59 (7)	5% (27)	2.2 (34)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 South Alabama: 5.975

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 South Alabama: 3.0

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 5.975 #41
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 19.51 #39
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 6.19 #32
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
South Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.30 - 3.70
South Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 34
Arkansas State 20

Total Points: 54

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

South Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	South Alabama	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	South Alabama	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	South Alabama	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	Arkansas State	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	6	5	3 Overs
Arkansas State	7	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 9	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Arkansas State has won 2 straight
Arkansas State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	USA	ARST
OverallOver	#28	#47
OffenseOff	#36	#50
DefenseDef	#26	#51
Special TeamsST	#68	#91
PassingPass	#69	#78
RushingRush	#5	#50
Run BlockRBLK	#45	#22
Pass BlockPBLK	#94	#80
Route RunningWR Rt	#21	#44
TacklingTkl	#92	#29
Run DefenseR Def	#22	#64
Pass Rush DefPRush	#53	#87
Coverage DefCov	#52	#14

Rematch from Week 11
South Alabama -14.5 (54.5)
South Alabama won vs Arkansas State this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | USA
Depth Chart: ARST | USA
Rosters: ARST | USA

(#41) South Alabama Info
Power Rating: 5.975 #41
Offense Rating: 19.51 #39
Defense Rating: 6.19 #32
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 9.30 - 3.70

South Alabama has lost 2 straight
South Alabama has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama offense is explosive (#86)
South Alabama offense is good in red zone (#52)
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)

South Alabama has a really good defense (#117)
South Alabama defense is really good in red zone (#130)
South Alabama has a good run defense (#122)
South Alabama Defensive Line is very good (#105)
South Alabama defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

South Alabama's OC Major Applewhite

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Bradley	221	326	68%	2660	19	7	8.2
Giovanni Lopez	41	61	67%	475	4	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
La'Damian Webb	186	1007	16	5.4	65
Kentrel Bullock (Tr)	83	448	4	5.4	34
Braylon McReynolds	46	232	0	5.0	35
Marco Lee	53	220	2	4.2	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caullin Lacy	91	1316	7	14.5	84
Jamaal Pritchett	57	883	8	15.5	51
Damarcus Thomas	27	235	5	8.7	33
Javon Ivory (Tr)	20	234	1	11.7	39

View South Alabama's Full Roster

South Alabama's DC Corey Batoon

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
James Miller	67	4	0	1	0
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
Jamie Sheriff	45	9	3	12	0
Brock Higdon	18	4	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rickey Fletcher	38	1	0	1	11
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6
Yamarus Banks	45	6	1	3	3