Arkansas State at Massachusetts Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -2.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 52 - Massachusetts: 28

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 2nd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5 (SP+ ARST -10)
Projected Score: ARST: 31 - UMASS: 26 (58)
UMASS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 1069 miles, 1 hrs behind

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
UMASS	.01	32%	22.5	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	35.5	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.8	20.7	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	32.2	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	32.2	37.3	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	27.2	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Massachusetts: -17.7

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 31
Massachusetts 26

Projected Total Points: 58

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Massachusetts	28	Arkansas State	52	Arkansas State	UMass -2.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	11/12	Arkansas State	35	Massachusetts	33	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -17	Massachusetts	49.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	1	2 Overs
Arkansas State	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Team Profile

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Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Massachusetts

Power #100

#121

Off #85

#59

Def #95

#129

Talent #81

#108

SP+ #92

#125

SP+ Off #72

#99

SP+ Def #108

#124

Rematch from Week 5
Massachusetts -2.5 (55.5)
Arkansas State won at Massachusetts this year (52-28)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (52-28)
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2022 (35-33)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | UMASS
Depth Chart: ARST | UMASS
Rosters: ARST | UMASS

(#121) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Team Profile

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Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Reagan Ealy	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Mike Sharpe II	4	22	0	5.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46
Emmanuel Stevenson	28	203	1	7.3	29

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Blayne Toll	9	1	1	2	0
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3

Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	107	317	3	3.0	33
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gregory DeRosiers	21	175	4	8.3	25
Kay'Ron Adams	15	85	0	5.7	16
George Johnson	10	85	0	8.5	13
Jackson Manning	1	6	0	6.0	6

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Michael Oppong	8	1	0
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Michael Oppong	8	1	0
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Mahoney	19	1	4
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	3