Arkansas State at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo   Arkansas State Red Wolves at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -2.5 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 52 - Massachusetts: 28

 
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 2nd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5  (SP+ ARST -10)
Projected Score: ARST: 28 - UMASS: 24 (52)
UMASS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 1069 miles, 1 hrs behind
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30OY
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59ON
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41ON
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52ON
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49OY
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST.136%25.235%2.368838%2273.48.2444%27.445%43%4.5854.50.81.1
UMASS.0132%11.134%2.815031%1172.26.240%38.642%38%3.666.21.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1225.22136.1%3.480.817315882272.842%57%35%38%21%.1
UMASS Defense1238.634.740.1%3.61.6 - - - - - 60%39%42%38%20%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1227.421.844.2%4.581.1 - - - - - 55%44%45%43%18%.24
UMASS Offense1211.112.832.4%2.261.6152671501173.560%39%34%31%20%.01

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1230:1417.229%61%5.754.50.81.16.41.9229
Massachusetts1231:5514.628%48%7.666.21.61.66.11.6127.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1242%35%31.888.22.816-.032.3675%16%1
UMASS Defense1260%42% - - - - .183.1770%13%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1255%45% - - - - .16376%12%0.97
UMASS Offense1260%34%43.3150.33.510.032.869%14%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1257%38%20.633226.86.911165.211.638%25%.196%2.1
UMASS Defense1239%38% - - - - - - 9.291.933%28%.287%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1244%43% - - - - - - 6.41.831%31%.316%2.1
UMASS Offense1239%31%11.323.1116.95.110.3414.011.637%19%.16%2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23  #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66  #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64  #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40  #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23   Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5   Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895  #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17  #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87  #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65  #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7  #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 28
Massachusetts 24

Projected Total Points: 52
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Massachusetts28Arkansas State52UMass -2.5Arkansas State55.5Over
202211/12Arkansas State35Massachusetts33Arkansas State -17Massachusetts49.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts012 Overs
Arkansas State210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 12 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#100) ARST at (#121) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #100 #121
SP+SP+ #92 #125
Perf GradeGrade #58 #132
OffenseOff #54 #97
DefenseDef #60 #135
Spec TeamsST #113 #136
TalentTal #92 #76
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #75
Arkansas State on Offense
CategoryCat
ARST OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #54 #135
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #85 #129
SP+SP+ #72 #124
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #72 #130
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Arkansas State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #93 #130
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #92 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Massachusetts on Offense
CategoryCatUMASS OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #60
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #59 #95
SP+SP+ #99 #108
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Massachusetts Run Game
CategoryCat
UMASS OffARST Def
Run GameRun #59 #74
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #31
Massachusetts Pass Game
CategoryCatUMASS OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #106 #16
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #118
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Massachusetts -2.5 (55.5)
Arkansas State won at Massachusetts this year (52-28)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (52-28)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)13922761%1507666.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)6210161%886638.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams2361157124.947
Gregory DeRosiers3730148.160
Anthony Simpson (Tr)119318.517
Ahmad Haston165403.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)57792313.971
George Johnson35421312.032
Mark Pope (Tr)33420112.754
Gino Campiotti21289413.830

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Te'Rai Powell591023
Nahji Logan593111
Gerrell Johnson512000
Billy Wooden5011671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Billy Wooden5011671
JB Brown (Tr)385341
Derrieon Craig245211
Zukudo Igwenagu293100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Juan Lua230005
Tyler Rudolph402114
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)310014