Arkansas State at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -2.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 52 - Massachusetts: 28

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 2nd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5 (SP+ ARST -10)
Projected Score: ARST: 29 - UMASS: 25 (54)
UMASS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 1069 miles, 1 hrs behind

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 38 (27 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	27.1	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	30.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
UMASS	#72 (.18)	42% (68)	23.2	45% (47)	3.35 (21)	142	40% (86)	214	3.73 (82)	#124 (.31)	49% (132)	37.8	53% (131)	43% (92)	4.31 (114)	70.9	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	27.1	20.7	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
UMASS Defense	12	37.8	36.7	48.5%	4.31	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	53%	43%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	30.4	36.3	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
UMASS Offense	12	23.2	26.7	42%	3.73	1.4	18	356	142	214	4.4	51%	48%	45%	40%	21%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
Massachusetts	12	29:45	17.8	36%	23%	8	70.9	1.4	1.2	4.5	1.5	2	26.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
UMASS Defense	12	58% (130)	53% (131)	-	-	-	-	.34 (131)	3.83 (133)	85% (123)	9% (89)	1 (69)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
UMASS Offense	12	51% (59)	45% (47)	32.5	142.2	4.4	19 (69)	.25 (18)	3.35 (21)	62% (125)	14% (127)	1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
UMASS Defense	12	42% (4)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (94)	1.8 (122)	29% (121)	37% (125)	.47 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (30)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
UMASS Offense	12	48% (76)	40% (86)	17.7	29	214.1	7.4	12.1	14 (106)	11 (68)	.18 (99)	1.5 (85)	32% (62)	33% (50)	.43 (35)	7% (109)	2.2 (36)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Massachusetts: -17.7

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
Massachusetts 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 25
Massachusetts 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 31
Massachusetts 29

Total Points: 60

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Massachusetts	28	Arkansas State	52	UMass -2.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	11/12	Arkansas State	35	Massachusetts	33	Arkansas State -17	Massachusetts	49.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	1	2 Overs
Arkansas State	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#100) ARST at (#121) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	UMASS
Power RatePwr	#100	#121
SP+SP+	#92	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#132
OffenseOff	#54	#97
DefenseDef	#60	#135
Spec TeamsST	#113	#136
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Arkansas State Injury Report

Massachusetts Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
Perf GradePerf	#54	#135
SuccessSuc	#73	#132
ExplosiveExp	#35	#66
PPAPPA	#81	#124
PowerPwr	#85	#129
SP+SP+	#72	#124
Pts POPPO	#114	#114
HavocHav	#69	#97

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#72	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#131
Run ExplRExp	#43	#69
PPAExp	#66	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#133
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#133
TackleTak	-	#113

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#92
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#122
PPAExp	#83	#94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#114
F7 HavocF7	#58	#89
DB HavocDB	#87	#90

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
Perf GradePerf	#97	#60
SuccessSuc	#68	#72
ExplosiveExp	#48	#62
PPAPPA	#72	#110
PowerPwr	#59	#95
SP+SP+	#99	#108
Pts POPPO	#82	#92
HavocHav	#129	#103

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#59	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#80
Run ExplRExp	#11	#78
PPAExp	#18	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#71
TackleTak	-	#31

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#106	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#86	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#85	#59
PPAExp	#99	#105
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#118
F7 HavocF7	#127	#71
DB HavocDB	#109	#111

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65°

Rematch from Week 5
Massachusetts -2.5 (55.5)
Arkansas State won at Massachusetts this year (52-28)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (52-28)
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2022 (35-33)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4