Arkansas State at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -2.5 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 52 - Massachusetts: 28

 
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 2nd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5   (SP+ ARST -10)

Projected Score: ARST: 31 - UMASS: 27 (58)
UMASS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 1069 miles, 1 hrs behind
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 38 (27 - 37 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30OY
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59ON
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41ON
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52ON
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41OY
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49OY
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)42% (73)27.143% (71)3.12 (65)14841% (80)2253.21 (114)#110 (.25)42% (72)30.444% (80)41% (59)4.05 (92)60.911.2
UMASS#72 (.18)42% (68)23.245% (47)3.35 (21)14240% (86)2143.73 (82)#124 (.31)49% (132)37.853% (131)43% (92)4.31 (114)70.91.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
UMASS#69 (.19)41% (94)43% (78)3.1 (50)16438% (110)1823.73 (89)#114 (.26)46% (116)51% (128)40% (71)4.66 (129)63.20.80.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1327.120.741.6%3.211203741482254.250%49%43%41%16%.17
UMASS Defense1237.836.748.5%4.311.2 - - - - - 58%42%53%43%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1330.436.342.3%4.051.2 - - - - - 50%49%44%41%15%.25
UMASS Offense1223.226.742%3.731.4183561422144.451%48%45%40%21%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:1719.836%35%6.260.911.26.21.8430.4
Massachusetts1229:4517.836%23%870.91.41.24.51.5226.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1350% (72)43% (71)35.3148.24.220 (61).16 (66)3.12 (65)69% (104)9% (58)1.05 (43)
UMASS Defense1258% (130)53% (131) - - - - .34 (131)3.83 (133)85% (123)9% (89)1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1350% (65)44% (80) - - - - .17 (88)3.09 (66)85% (124)10% (71)1.01 (78)
UMASS Offense1251% (59)45% (47)32.5142.24.419 (69).25 (18)3.35 (21)62% (125)14% (127)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1349% (65)41% (80)1628.5225.57.914.117 (85)9 (40).24 (83)1.7 (40)31% (59)31% (68).28 (88)6% (87)2.1 (53)
UMASS Defense1242% (4)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (94)1.8 (122)29% (121)37% (125).47 (124)6% (90)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1349% (73)41% (59) - - - - - - 8 (100).34 (105)1.6 (59)31% (83)24% (11).3 (66)5% (111)2.2 (116)
UMASS Offense1248% (76)40% (86)17.729214.17.412.114 (106)11 (68).18 (99)1.5 (85)32% (62)33% (50).43 (35)7% (109)2.2 (36)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23   Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5   Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 31
Massachusetts 27


Total Points: 58

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 36.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Massachusetts28Arkansas State52Arkansas StateUMass -2.5Arkansas State55.5Over
202211/12Arkansas State35Massachusetts33Arkansas StateArkansas State -17Massachusetts49.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts012 Overs
Arkansas State210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 12 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30


Arkansas State has won 2 straight
Arkansas State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUMASSARST
OverallOver#111#47
OffenseOff#83#50
DefenseDef#108#51
Special TeamsST#111#91
PassingPass#90#78
RushingRush#42#50
Run BlockRBLK#64#22
Pass BlockPBLK#68#80
Route RunningWR Rt#71#44
TacklingTkl#96#29
Run DefenseR Def#111#64
Pass Rush DefPRush#85#87
Coverage DefCov#109#14

Rematch from Week 5
Massachusetts -2.5 (55.5)
Arkansas State won at Massachusetts this year (52-28)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (52-28)
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2022 (35-33)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | UMASS
Depth Chart: ARST | UMASS
Rosters: ARST | UMASS
(#121) Massachusetts Info
Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10


Massachusetts has lost 4 straight
Massachusetts has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 5 (1 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Massachusetts Highlights
Massachusetts has a top Offensive Line (#124)
Massachusetts does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#124)


Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Massachusetts does not Sack the QB (#97)
Massachusetts has a bad defense (#87)
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)
Massachusetts has a bad red zone defense (#98)


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005

Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)13922761%1507666.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)6210161%886638.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kay'Ron Adams2361157124.947
Gregory DeRosiers3730148.160
Anthony Simpson (Tr)119318.517
Ahmad Haston165403.47
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)57792313.971
George Johnson35421312.032
Mark Pope (Tr)33420112.754
Gino Campiotti21289413.830

View Massachusetts's Full Roster
Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Te'Rai Powell591023
Nahji Logan593111
Gerrell Johnson512000
Billy Wooden5011671
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Billy Wooden5011671
JB Brown (Tr)385341
Derrieon Craig245211
Zukudo Igwenagu293100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Juan Lua230005
Tyler Rudolph402114
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)310014