South Alabama at Arkansas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 29th 2022 (4:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -9 (52.5)
South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State: 3 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ USA -24)
Projected Score: USA: 27 - ARST: 29 (56)
USA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USA Travel: 387 miles

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USA Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	South Alabama vs Nicholls	-13.5	53.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/10	South Alabama at Central Michigan	+6.0	57.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/17	South Alabama at UCLA	+15.5	59.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/24	South Alabama vs Louisiana Tech	-13.0	59.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/1	South Alabama at Louisiana	-8.5	47.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-17.0	51.0	W 41 - 34	O	N
Thu 10/20	South Alabama vs Troy	-3.0	47.0	L 6 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/29	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-9.0	52.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/5	South Alabama at Georgia Southern	-3.5	60.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/12	South Alabama vs Texas State	-16.0	46.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/19	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-7.5	45.0	W 27 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/26	South Alabama vs Old Dominion	-16.5	47.0	W 27 - 20	U	N
Wed 12/21	South Alabama vs Western Kentucky	-4.0	58.0	L 23 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.17	42%	26.5	39%	2.77	111	44%	256	3.36	.15	39%	30.4	37%	41%	3.02	43.8	1.7	2.2
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	12	26.5	25.2	41.6%	3.36	1.7	19	367	111	256	3.1	46%	54%	39%	44%	21%	.17
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	12	30.4	32	38.9%	3.02	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	41%	20%	.15
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	12	32:18	19	31%	61%	4.8	43.8	1.7	2.2	5.7	2.7	1	28.5
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	12	46%	39%	36.6	111.4	3.1	15	.07	2.77	68%	16%	0.91
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	12	49%	37%	-	-	-	-	.03	2.55	63%	13%	1.01
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	12	54%	44%	22.8	33.9	256	7.6	11.3	22	11	.27	1.5	33%	30%	.39	6%	2.1
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	12	50%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.29	1.7	32%	30%	.3	7%	2.1
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Alabama's 2022 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #33
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #66
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #22

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: Arkansas State: -4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 10.8 Arkansas State: -13.0

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
South Alabama 27

Projected Total Points: 56

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	15	South Alabama -8.5	Arkansas State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	8	3 Overs
South Alabama	6	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#) USA at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#33	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#93
OffenseOff	#64	#91
DefenseDef	#49	#108
Spec TeamsST	#34	#55
TalentTal	#89	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#66	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#62	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#49
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#22
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#112	#59
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
South Alabama 9.0 (52.5)
South Alabama won at Arkansas State this year (31-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (15-14)
Arkansas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)

USA's OC Major Applewhite (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD