Arkansas State at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Iowa State Cyclones(#12)Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 21st 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0) (-1600)  Open: 0.0
Iowa State 52 - Arkansas State: 7

 
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
ISU coming off BYE
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -22.5  (SP+ ISU -20)

Projected Score: ARST: 15 - ISU: 37 (52)
ISU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 455 miles
Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (34 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7 Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.565.5W 28 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Arkansas State at Michigan+22.047.5L 18 - 28UY
Sat 9/21 Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.552.0L 7 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.562.5W 18 - 16UY
Sat 10/12 Arkansas State at Texas State+13.566.0L 9 - 41UN
Sat 10/19 Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.057.0W 44 - 28OY
Sat 10/26 Arkansas State vs Troy-8.550.0W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.060.0L 19 - 55ON
Sat 11/16 Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.560.0W 27 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.051.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/30 Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.558.5L 32 - 40ON
Thu 12/26 Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.554.5W 38 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.551.5W 21 - 3UN
Sat 9/7 Iowa State at Iowa+3.035.0W 20 - 19OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.552.0W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/28 Iowa State at Houston-16.043.0W 20 - 0UY
Sat 10/5 Iowa State vs Baylor-13.045.0W 43 - 21OY
Sat 10/12 Iowa State at West Virginia-3.054.0W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/19 Iowa State vs UCF-13.049.5W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.555.0L 22 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Iowa State vs Kansas-2.550.5L 36 - 45ON
Sat 11/16 Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.052.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 11/23 Iowa State at Utah-6.542.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.551.5W 29 - 21UY
Sat 12/7 Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.551.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 12/28 Iowa State vs Miami+5.062.0W 42 - 41OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)25.843% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)32.251% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)31.140% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)22.946% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.820.741%3.961.3203571482104.348%52%43%39%16%.17
ISU Defense1422.918.142.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1332.237.348%4.621.4 - - - - - 52%48%51%44%15%.31
ISU Offense1431.134.140.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:5620.340%75%5.147.81.31.44.51.4127.6
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1348% (83)43% (84)34.8147.84.316 (90).12 (72)3.01 (77)73% (71)9% (48)0.9 (99)
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (84)51% (131) - - - - .28 (131)3.45 (127)73% (65)9% (82)1.02 (85)
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1352% (49)39% (96)19.631.6209.66.610.717 (79)9 (48).21 (90)1.5 (88)31% (67)32% (55).39 (42)8% (115)2 (97)
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1348% (52)44% (110) - - - - - - 14 (23).35 (115)1.7 (103)29% (106)32% (89).51 (125)6% (74)2.3 (122)
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76  #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48  #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18  #124
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9  #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76   Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9   Iowa State: 10.3




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685  #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95  #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20  #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 37
Arkansas State 15


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 27
Arkansas State 19

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Iowa State 34
Arkansas State 22

Total Points: 56
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.1

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Arkansas State16Iowa State24Iowa State -21Arkansas State55.5Under
202409/21Iowa State52Arkansas State7Iowa State -20.5Iowa State52.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State211 Overs
Arkansas State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#91) ARST at (#23) ISU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTISU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #91 #23
SP+SP+ #104 #28
Perf GradeGrade #102 #81
OffenseOff #82 #81
DefenseDef #121 #77
Spec TeamsST #76 #73
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #97 #97
Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report
Iowa State Notes
(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARST OffISU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #82 #77
SuccessSuc #91 #81
ExplosiveExp #102 #83
PPAPPA #81 #79
PowerPwr #62 #37
SP+SP+ #87 #24
Pts POPPO #63 #29
HavocHav #80 #84
Arkansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARST OffISU Def
Run GameRun #101 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #101
Run ExplRExp #99 #112
PPAExp #72 #114
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #76
Stuff RateStuff #56 #43
TackleTak -  #114
Arkansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARST OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #41
Pass ExplPExl #88 #73
PPAExp #90 #36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #113 #129
F7 HavocF7 #48 #85
DB HavocDB #115 #86
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatISU OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #121
SuccessSuc #99 #124
ExplosiveExp #7 #91
PPAPPA #62 #126
PowerPwr #42 #124
SP+SP+ #44 #119
Pts POPPO #37 #127
HavocHav #40 #80
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARST Def
Run GameRun #51 #124
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #131
Run ExplRExp #19 #85
PPAExp #74 #131
Run BlockR Blk #121 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #127
Stuff RateStuff #115 #91
TackleTak -  #128
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatISU OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #92 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #110
Pass ExplPExl #27 #103
PPAExp #49 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #104 #78
F7 HavocF7 #22 #82
DB HavocDB #94 #74
Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0)
Iowa State won vs Arkansas State this year (52-7)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Arkansas State last year (52-7)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor25942062%278316106.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)142167%163307.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zak Wallace154721114.757
Ja'Quez Cross11563825.549
Jaylen Raynor13738732.840
Devin Spencer4020605.223
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker691053715.379
Courtney Jackson42494211.844
Reagan Ealy23262011.422
Adam Jones21255312.146

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)9810211
Justin Parks966033
Charles Willekes929123
Trevian Thomas791004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Jones257440
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
Ian Jeffries215450
Noah Collins (Tr)265220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dontay Joyner501017
Websley Etienne562005
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)191004

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht27245760%35052597.7
Connor Moberly51050%49014.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen151752135.057
Abu Sama III12458724.777
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)9338824.251
Rocco Becht9831883.232
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylin Noel811194814.775
Jayden Higgins871183913.639
Gabe Burkle26296111.432
Benjamin Brahmer10179117.939

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Freyler843004
Malik Verdon754115
Kooper Ebel696110
Jeremiah Cooper481008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.R. Singleton325471
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Joey Petersen466290
Domonique Orange245131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper481008
Myles Purchase354006
Malik Verdon754115