Arkansas State at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0) (-1600) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 52 - Arkansas State: 7

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
ISU coming off BYE
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -22.5 (SP+ ISU -20)
Projected Score: ARST: 14 - ISU: 36 (50)
ISU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 455 miles

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	27.4	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	20.2	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
ISU Defense	13	20.2	18.8	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
ISU Offense	13	27.4	32.3	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Iowa State: 10.3

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 339.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 36
Arkansas State 14

Projected Total Points: 50

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Arkansas State	16	Iowa State	24	Iowa State -21	Arkansas State	55.5	Under
2024	09/21	Iowa State	52	Arkansas State	7	Iowa State -20.5	Iowa State	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	2	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#91) ARST at (#23) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#91	#23
SP+SP+	#104	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#81
OffenseOff	#82	#81
DefenseDef	#121	#77
Spec TeamsST	#76	#73
TalentTal	#67	#61
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#97

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Iowa State Notes(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#77
SuccessSuc	#73	#36
ExplosiveExp	#35	#88
PPAPPA	#81	#32
PowerPwr	#62	#37
SP+SP+	#87	#24
Pts POPPO	#114	#27
HavocHav	#69	#76

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#101	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#46
Run ExplRExp	#43	#28
PPAExp	#66	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#20
TackleTak	-	#114

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#116
PPAExp	#83	#74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#129
F7 HavocF7	#58	#123
DB HavocDB	#87	#9

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#121
SuccessSuc	#119	#72
ExplosiveExp	#1	#62
PPAPPA	#57	#110
PowerPwr	#42	#124
SP+SP+	#44	#119
Pts POPPO	#83	#92
HavocHav	#35	#103

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#51	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#80
Run ExplRExp	#5	#78
PPAExp	#126	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#59
PPAExp	#25	#105
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#78
F7 HavocF7	#44	#71
DB HavocDB	#44	#111

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0)
Iowa State won vs Arkansas State this year (52-7)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Arkansas State last year (24-16)
Iowa State beat Arkansas State in 2024 (52-7)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5