Arkansas State at Oklahoma - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Oklahoma -36 (57.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oklahoma 73 - Arkansas State: 0

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Oklahoma -27.5 (SP+ OKLA -24)
Projected Score: ARST: 12 - OKLA: 39 (51)
OKLA Win prob: 97% | Cover: 58%
ARST Travel: 383 miles

Sooners (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 2.1 (#5)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
OKLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Oklahoma's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oklahoma vs Arkansas State	-36.0	57.5	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oklahoma vs SMU	-16.5	68.5	W 28 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oklahoma at Tulsa	-28.0	58.5	W 66 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Oklahoma at Cincinnati	-13.0	58.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oklahoma vs Iowa State	-19.5	48.5	W 50 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Oklahoma vs Texas	+4.0	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Oklahoma vs UCF	-17.0	67.5	W 31 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/28	Oklahoma at Kansas	-7.0	66.5	L 33 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	Oklahoma at Oklahoma State	-6.0	61.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oklahoma vs West Virginia	-13.5	59.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oklahoma at BYU	-24.5	58.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oklahoma vs TCU	-12.5	66.5	W 69 - 45	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Oklahoma vs Arizona	+2.5	59.5	L 24 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
OKLA	.27	47%	26.2	50%	3.38	220	45%	255	3.95	.23	44%	15.5	44%	44%	4.06	50.2	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OKLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
OKLA Defense	13	15.5	15	43.5%	4.06	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	44%	44%	18%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
OKLA Offense	13	26.2	26.4	47.1%	3.95	1.2	24	475	220	255	4.9	53%	46%	50%	45%	14%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Oklahoma	13	26:19	23.8	41%	41%	5.7	50.2	1.2	1.9	7.8	2.2	0	27.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
OKLA Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.12	68%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
OKLA Offense	13	53%	50%	44.6	219.9	4.9	28	.26	3.38	76%	9%	1.04

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
OKLA Defense	13	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.3	1.6	32%	32%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
OKLA Offense	13	46%	45%	19.3	31.3	254.6	8.1	13.2	27	8	.31	1.6	30%	31%	.31	5%	2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Oklahoma: 20.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Oklahoma: 16.4

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 20.015 #7
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 26.78 #8
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: 3.74 #19
2023 Talent Rating: 884.97 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 71 #5
Oklahoma's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 2.10
Oklahoma's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.4 #13
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #7
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Oklahoma 39
Arkansas State 12

Projected Total Points: 51

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Oklahoma's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Oklahoma	73	Arkansas State	0	Oklahoma -36	Oklahoma	57.5	Over
2000	09/08	Oklahoma	45	Arkansas State	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oklahoma	2	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#100) ARST at (#7) OKLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	OKLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#7
SP+SP+	#92	#13
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#25
OffenseOff	#54	#20
DefenseDef	#60	#40
Spec TeamsST	#113	#21
TalentTal	#92	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#5

Arkansas State Injury Report

Oklahoma Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OKLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#40
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#19
SP+SP+	#72	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OKLA Def
Run GameRun	#72	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#67

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OKLA Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#58
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oklahoma on Offense


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#8	#95
SP+SP+	#7	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oklahoma Run Game


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#44	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Oklahoma Pass Game


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#7	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
OKLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'23 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Oklahoma -36.0 (57.5)
Oklahoma won vs Arkansas State this year (73-0)

Previous Matchups
Oklahoma beat Arkansas State in 2023 (73-0)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

OKLA's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel	266	384	69%	3660	30	6	9.5
Jackson Arnold	44	69	64%	563	4	3	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Sawchuk	120	744	9	6.2	64
Tawee Walker	102	513	7	5.0	30
Dillon Gabriel	93	373	12	4.0	44
Marcus Major	78	308	1	3.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Drake Stoops	84	962	10	11.5	60
Nic Anderson	38	798	10	21.0	63
Jalil Farooq	45	694	2	15.4	49
Andrel Anthony Jr.	27	429	1	15.9	55

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Todd Bates (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Danny Stutsman	87	14	2	1	3
Billy Bowman	60	3	0	0	3
Jaren Kanak	58	6	2	4	0
Kip Lewis	57	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Downs	26	7	5	6	0
Marcus Stripling	6	3	3	1	0
Kendel Dolby	49	5	2	4	4
Danny Stutsman	87	14	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Woodi Washington	42	3	0	1	7
Kendel Dolby	49	5	2	4	4
Peyton Bowen	32	1	1	1	4