Texas State at Arkansas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 27th 2021 (2:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -2 (62.0)
Texas State 24 - Arkansas State: 22 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
TXST is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ TXST -2)
Projected Score: TXST: 31 - ARST: 29 (60)
ARST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TXST Travel: 589 miles

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas State vs Baylor	+13.5	52.5	L 20 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas State at Florida International	+2.0	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Texas State vs Incarnate Word	-10.5	70.0	L 34 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/25	Texas State at Eastern Michigan	+7.5	62.0	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9	Texas State vs South Alabama	+4.0	52.5	W 33 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas State vs Troy	+7.5	49.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas State at Georgia State	+10.0	58.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/30	Texas State at Louisiana	+21.0	58.0	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	57.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/20	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	+24.5	60.5	L 21 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas State at Arkansas State	+2.0	62.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.14	40%	36.5	41%	2.86	131	40%	239	3.7	.28	49%	29	49%	49%	4.38	49.3	1.5	1.3
ARST	.25	43%	25.2	39%	2.82	125	46%	364	3.99	.22	42%	27.4	37%	47%	3.88	57.4	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	40.3%	3.7	1.5	21	370	131	239	4.2	44%	56%	41%	40%	20%	.14
ARST Defense	11	27.4	27.2	42.2%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	47%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	49.2%	4.38	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	49%	49%	12%	.28
ARST Offense	11	25.2	29	42.8%	3.99	1.5	24	490	125	364	3.6	42%	57%	39%	46%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	25:44	20.6	33%	38%	5.2	49.3	1.5	1.3	4.5	1	3	27.4
Arkansas State	11	28:38	24.5	40%	50%	6.4	57.4	1.5	1.1	6.9	1.8	1	25.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	44%	41%	31	131.4	4.2	15	.14	2.86	73%	13%	1.07
ARST Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.44	64%	11%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	54%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.16	70%	8%	0.89
ARST Offense	11	42%	39%	34.9	125.2	3.6	7	.01	2.82	64%	9%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	40%	20.6	33.7	238.7	7.1	11.6	26	14	.14	1.6	34%	29%	.19	7%	2
ARST Defense	11	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.7	31%	34%	.4	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.41	1.5	28%	37%	.48	5%	2
ARST Offense	11	57%	46%	25.1	42.2	364.4	8.6	14.5	39	9	.43	1.8	34%	36%	.4	7%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: Arkansas State: -6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -16.0 Arkansas State: -17.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.45 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 31
Arkansas State 29

Projected Total Points: 60

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Arkansas State	31	Texas State	30	Texas State -14	Arkansas State	63.5	Under
2024	10/12	Texas State	41	Arkansas State	9	Texas State -13.5	Texas State	66.0	Under
2023	11/18	Arkansas State	77	Texas State	31	Texas State -3.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2022	11/19	Texas State	16	Arkansas State	13	Texas State -6	Arkansas State	50.0	Under
2021	11/27	Arkansas State	22	Texas State	24	Arkansas State -2	Texas State	62.0	Under
2020	11/21	Texas State	47	Arkansas State	45	Arkansas State -4.5	Texas State	69.5	Over
2019	10/26	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	14	Arkansas State -11.5	Arkansas State	60.5	Under
2018	11/24	Texas State	7	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State -13	Arkansas State	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Arkansas State	30	Texas State	12	Arkansas State -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2016	12/03	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	36	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	54.0	Under
2015	12/05	Arkansas State	55	Texas State	17	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Over
2014	11/20	Texas State	45	Arkansas State	27	Arkansas State -6.5	Texas State	58.0	Over
2013	11/16	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	21	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	8	4 Overs
Texas State	5	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	8 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 4	3 - 4

(#) TXST at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#123
OffenseOff	#71	#112
DefenseDef	#117	#129
Spec TeamsST	#50	#41
TalentTal	#97	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Texas State Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#71	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#102	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#25	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#110	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#125

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Arkansas State -2.0 (62.0)
Texas State won at Arkansas State this year (24-22)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Texas State last year (31-30)
Texas State beat Arkansas State in 2024 (41-9)
Arkansas State beat Texas State in 2023 (77-31)

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD