Texas State at Arkansas State Game Matchup

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Texas State -3.5 (59.5) (-155) Open: -3.5 | 59.5
Arkansas State 77 - Texas State: 31 (Sun Belt)

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TXST 2nd straight Road Game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -2 (SP+ TXST -3.5)
Projected Score: TXST: 30 - ARST: 28 (59)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 589 miles

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	24.5	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	33.8	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
ARST Defense	12	32.2	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	24.5	24	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
ARST Offense	12	25.8	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 30
Arkansas State 28

Projected Total Points: 59

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Texas State	41	Arkansas State	9	Texas State	Texas State -13.5	Texas State	66.0	Under
2023	11/18	Arkansas State	77	Texas State	31	Arkansas State	Texas State -3.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2022	11/19	Texas State	16	Arkansas State	13	Texas State	Texas State -6	Arkansas State	50.0	Under
2021	11/27	Arkansas State	22	Texas State	24	Texas State	Arkansas State -2	Texas State	62.0	Under
2020	11/21	Texas State	47	Arkansas State	45	Texas State	Arkansas State -4.5	Texas State	69.5	Over
2019	10/26	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -11.5	Arkansas State	60.5	Under
2018	11/24	Texas State	7	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -13	Arkansas State	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Arkansas State	30	Texas State	12	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Under
2016	12/03	Texas State	14	Arkansas State	36	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	54.0	Under
2015	12/05	Arkansas State	55	Texas State	17	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -21.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Over
2014	11/20	Texas State	45	Arkansas State	27	Texas State	Arkansas State -6.5	Texas State	58.0	Over
2013	11/16	Arkansas State	38	Texas State	21	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	7	7	4 Overs
Texas State	5	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 3	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 9	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#77) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Team Profile

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Texas State Ratings Matchup Arkansas State

Power #77

#100

Off #21

#85

Def #91

#95

Talent #131

#81

SP+ #79

#92

SP+ Off #47

#72

SP+ Def #114

#108

Rematch from Week 12
Texas State 3.5 (59.5)
Arkansas State won vs Texas State this year (77-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Arkansas State last year (41-9)
Arkansas State beat Texas State in 2023 (77-31)
Texas State beat Arkansas State in 2022 (16-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | ARST
Depth Chart: TXST | ARST
Rosters: TXST | ARST

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Team Profile

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Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donerio Davenport	31	107	1	3.5	12
Malik Hornsby	5	86	1	17.2	73
TJ Finley	11	20	0	1.8	8
Joey Hobert (Tr)	3	6	0	2.0	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	70	680	8	9.7	40
Ashtyn Hawkins	45	567	5	12.6	35
Konner Fox (Tr)	14	143	1	10.2	23
Drew Donley (Tr)	1	60	1	60.0	60

View Texas State's Full Roster

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Kenny Haynes	35	2	0	0
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	29	1	0	0
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	7
Jaylon Shelton (Tr)	26	0	0	3
Ronnie Hamrick II	5	0	0	1

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Reagan Ealy	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Mike Sharpe II	4	22	0	5.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46
Emmanuel Stevenson	28	203	1	7.3	29

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Blayne Toll	9	1	1	2	0
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3