Arkansas State at UL Monroe - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at UL Monroe WarhawksUL Monroe logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
UL Monroe -1.5 (55.5) (-115)  Open: -1.5
UL Monroe 28 - Arkansas State: 16  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -2.5  (SP+ ARST -11)

Projected Score: ARST: 27 - ULM: 25 (52)
ULM Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 243 miles
Warhawks (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (18 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
UL Monroe's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UL Monroe vs St. Francis (PA)-31.047.0W 29 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 UL Monroe at Alabama+34.050.0L 0 - 73ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UL Monroe at UTEP+5.547.5W 31 - 25OY
Sat 9/27 UL Monroe vs Arkansas State-1.555.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/4 UL Monroe at Northwestern+12.543.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina-3.046.5L 8 - 23UN
Sat 10/18 UL Monroe vs Troy+4.545.5L 14 - 37ON
Sat 10/25 UL Monroe at Southern Miss+14.048.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/1 UL Monroe vs Old Dominion+16.555.5L 6 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 UL Monroe vs South Alabama+4.049.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 UL Monroe at Texas State+20.559.5L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/29 UL Monroe at Louisiana+10.547.5L 27 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
ULM#115 (.09)36% (125)16.636% (127)2.7 (113)16338% (110)1603.19 (118)#87 (.19)41% (57)31.940% (43)42% (74)4.21 (118)651.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
ULM#94 (.15)37% (121)40% (102)2.93 (87)17333% (128)1353.33 (117)#89 (.2)47% (120)53% (134)39% (53)4.12 (99)43.31.31.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22142%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09
ULM Defense1231.92240.9%4.210.8 - - - - - 51%48%40%42%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.843.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
ULM Offense1216.618.236.5%3.191.6173221631604.654%43%36%38%21%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
UL Monroe1229:3717.433%38%7.3651.60.85.51.9026.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)
ULM Defense1251% (82)40% (43) - - - - .08 (55)2.83 (58)74% (93)10% (66)1.03 (103)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
ULM Offense1254% (35)36% (127)35.7162.64.612 (119).05 (106)2.7 (113)78% (28)13% (129)1.11 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)
ULM Defense1248% (60)42% (74) - - - - - - 5 (75).31 (100)1.7 (116)31% (82)32% (97).36 (104)5% (110)2.1 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
ULM Offense1243% (105)38% (110)14.325.2159.66.311.215 (75)12 (108).21 (91)1.8 (7)37% (134)26% (113).16 (117)8% (119)2.3 (6)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.82   UL Monroe: -12.375

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.8   UL Monroe: -20.7




UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -12.375  #103
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 3.62  #103
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 12.67  #100
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
UL Monroe's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UL Monroe's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.7  #131
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3  #127
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #124

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 27
UL Monroe 25


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
UL Monroe 27
Arkansas State 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 25
UL Monroe 21

Total Points: 46
UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.2
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

UL Monroe's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27UL Monroe28Arkansas State16UL Monroe -1.5UL Monroe55.5Under
202411/23Arkansas State28UL Monroe21Arkansas State -3Arkansas State51.5Under
202310/28UL Monroe24Arkansas State34Louisiana Monroe -1.0Arkansas State55.5Over
202210/01Arkansas State45UL Monroe28Arkansas State -7.5Arkansas State58.5Over
202111/13UL Monroe24Arkansas State27Louisiana Monroe -3Arkansas State66.5Under
202012/05Arkansas State48UL Monroe15Arkansas State -20.5Arkansas State71.5Under
201911/02UL Monroe41Arkansas State48Arkansas State -1Arkansas State69.0Over
201811/17Arkansas State31UL Monroe17Arkansas State -7.5Arkansas State68.0Under
201711/25UL Monroe50Arkansas State67Arkansas State -8.5Arkansas State69.0Over
201610/29Arkansas State51UL Monroe10Arkansas State -17Arkansas State55.0Over
201511/14UL Monroe21Arkansas State59Arkansas State -12.5Arkansas State55.5Over
201410/04Arkansas State28UL Monroe14Arkansas State -10Arkansas State0
201311/09UL Monroe14Arkansas State42Louisiana Monroe -3.5Arkansas State0
201211/08Arkansas State45UL Monroe23
201110/08UL Monroe19Arkansas State24
201009/18Arkansas State34UL Monroe20
200910/13UL Monroe16Arkansas State10
200810/11Arkansas State37UL Monroe29
200710/06UL Monroe30Arkansas State13
200610/07Arkansas State10UL Monroe6
200510/01UL Monroe31Arkansas State27
200409/25UL Monroe21Arkansas State28
200310/04Arkansas State44UL Monroe41
200209/21UL Monroe21Arkansas State33
200111/17Arkansas State7UL Monroe16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UL Monroe516 Overs
Arkansas State20125 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 107 - 67 - 30 - 3
Road Teams10 - 156 - 73 - 03 - 7

(#108) ARST at (#103) ULM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTULM
Power RatePwr #108 #103
SP+SP+ #105 #131
Perf GradeGrade #93 #72
OffenseOff #86 #67
DefenseDef #94 #43
Spec TeamsST #62 #82
TalentTal #75 #126
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #56
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
UL Monroe Notes
(10/24) QB1 & QB2 Armenta & Herring doubtful vs So Miss
(10/12) Off has flushed, bad L @ C Car, 15 pts last 2 games
(10/9) Lost both kickers, holding search on campus
(9/21) Run Off better vs UTEP, QB Armenta still JAG-
(9/17) Offense is awful, no expl and can't protect QB
(9/17) Best Off weapon is small body RB McReynolds
(8/28) QB1 Armenta JAG- arm, has some mobility
(8/1) Can ULM get any QB play to help Run Off?
(8/1) RB McReynolds, P-Smith & watch for Fr D Ford
(8/1) Slow, run heavy Off (62%) to shorten, help D
(8/1) Secondary looks decent, Run Def awful again
(7/13) Smaller Def wore down LY, bigger in '25
UL Monroe Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffULM Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #43
SuccessSuc #71 #57
ExplosiveExp #124 #121
PPAPPA #112 #87
PowerPwr #102 #100
SP+SP+ #97 #124
Pts POPPO #110 #118
HavocHav #111 #100
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffULM Def
Run GameRun #115 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #43
Run ExplRExp #125 #103
PPAExp #125 #55
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #58
Stuff RateStuff #111 #87
TackleTak -  #48
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffULM Def
Pass GamePass #78 #59
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #74
Pass ExplPExl #122 #116
PPAExp #86 #100
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #13 #70
F7 HavocF7 #89 #66
DB HavocDB #125 #110
UL Monroe on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatULM OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #94
SuccessSuc #125 #90
ExplosiveExp #6 #95
PPAPPA #115 #89
PowerPwr #103 #102
SP+SP+ #127 #104
Pts POPPO #118 #93
HavocHav #134 #70
UL Monroe Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffARST Def
Run GameRun #51 #79
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #81
Run ExplRExp #14 #92
PPAExp #106 #80
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #113 #45
Stuff RateStuff #130 #64
TackleTak -  #48
UL Monroe Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatULM OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #113 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #93
Pass ExplPExl #7 #89
PPAExp #91 #97
Pass Block/RushP Blk #3 #82
F7 HavocF7 #129 #39
DB HavocDB #119 #109
Program Comparison
ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Malone Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 5
UL Monroe -1.5 (55.5)
UL Monroe won vs Arkansas State this year (28-16)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe last year (28-21)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (34-24)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2022 (45-28)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004

ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Armenta14725258%16191286.4
Landon Graves194048%185224.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachary Palmer-Smith11566045.756
Braylon McReynolds (Tr)12461435.074
Dorian Lewis2719507.272
Tyrell Reed Jr. (Tr)3513703.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Bibbs26383314.768
Nic Trujillo (Tr)23368416.052
JP Coulter21234011.139
Jacob Godfrey16191211.937

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Flemmings8010321
Jabari Tiller468301
Seidrion Langston363000
Marcus Ross (Tr)356220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
Dylan Howell195440
Noah Flemmings8010321
Kevontay Wells334340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
David Godsey Jr.260005
Jyren Ester193004