Massachusetts at Arkansas State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 12th 2022 (3:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -17 (49.0)
Arkansas State 35 - Massachusetts: 33

Minutemen (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: -11 (SP+ ARST -17)
Projected Score: UMASS: 19 - ARST: 34 (53)
ARST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
UMASS Travel: 1069 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Massachusetts at Tulane	+28.5	59.0	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/10	Massachusetts at Toledo	+28.0	49.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/17	Massachusetts vs Stony Brook	-1.0	44.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Massachusetts at Temple	+10.0	44.0	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/1	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+20.0	53.0	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+22.5	45.5	L 24 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Massachusetts vs Buffalo	+17.0	47.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Massachusetts vs New Mexico State	+1.0	39.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/4	Massachusetts at UConn	+15.0	39.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/12	Massachusetts at Arkansas State	+17.0	49.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Massachusetts at Texas A&M	+32.0	46.0	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Massachusetts vs Army	+20.0	45.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	.09	38%	11.1	43%	3.03	147	32%	153	3.34	.42	49%	38.6	50%	48%	5.06	59.5	1.7	0.8
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	9.3	37.5%	3.34	1.7	16	300	147	153	4.2	53%	46%	43%	32%	21%	.09
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	42.5	48.7%	5.06	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	50%	48%	13%	.42
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	29:45	16.3	33%	44%	6.3	59.5	1.7	0.8	3.8	0.9	0	26.9
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	53%	43%	34.7	147	4.2	14	.18	3.03	65%	14%	1.07
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	59%	50%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.21	77%	8%	1.2
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	46%	32%	13.6	27.6	152.7	5.5	11.2	11	11	.04	1.6	34%	28%	.31	7%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	41%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.58	1.8	29%	37%	.7	5%	2.5
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Massachusetts's 2022 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -30.3 #133
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.5 #132
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #110

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: Arkansas State: -4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -30.3 Arkansas State: -13.0

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 34
Massachusetts 19

Projected Total Points: 53

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Massachusetts	28	Arkansas State	52	UMass -2.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	11/12	Arkansas State	35	Massachusetts	33	Arkansas State -17	Massachusetts	49.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	2	1	2 Overs
Massachusetts	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#) UMASS at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UMASS	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#133	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#135	#93
OffenseOff	#135	#91
DefenseDef	#116	#108
Spec TeamsST	#134	#55
TalentTal	#124	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Massachusetts Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#132	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#129	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#129	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#116
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#112	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#83
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 37° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Arkansas State -17.0 (49.0)
Arkansas State won vs Massachusetts this year (35-33)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Massachusetts in 2023 (52-28)

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD