Memphis at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Memphis Tigers at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -21 (57.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Memphis 37 - Arkansas State: 3

Tigers (10 - 3) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Memphis -8.5 (SP+ MEM -10.5)
Projected Score: MEM: 32 - ARST: 24 (56)
MEM Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
MEM Travel: 64 miles

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MEM Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Memphis's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman	-49.0	59.5	W 56 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/9	Memphis at Arkansas State	-21.0	57.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Thu 9/14	Memphis vs Navy	-12.5	47.0	W 28 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/23	Memphis vs Missouri	+6.5	52.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Memphis vs Boise State	-3.0	58.0	W 35 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13	Memphis vs Tulane	+4.5	54.5	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	Memphis at UAB	-7.5	61.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Memphis at North Texas	-6.5	70.0	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Memphis vs South Florida	-13.5	68.5	W 59 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/11	Memphis at Charlotte	-9.5	51.5	W 44 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Memphis vs SMU	+9.5	64.5	L 34 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Memphis at Temple	-13.5	63.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Memphis at Iowa State	+10.5	58.0	W 36 - 26	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM	.2	44%	32.5	44%	2.9	142	45%	280	4.16	.18	43%	23.2	41%	46%	4.34	36.9	1.2	2.1
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Offense	13	32.5	35	44.3%	4.16	1.2	23	422	142	280	3.8	47%	52%	44%	45%	16%	.2
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Defense	13	23.2	20.8	43%	4.34	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	41%	46%	14%	.18
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Memphis	13	30:50	22.5	45%	54%	4.1	36.9	1.2	2.1	4.6	1.6	4	31.3
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Offense	13	47%	44%	37.9	142.4	3.8	30	.12	2.9	74%	10%	0.93
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.96	70%	8%	0.89
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Offense	13	52%	45%	22.4	35	280.1	8	12.5	23	8	.31	1.5	30%	33%	.39	6%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Defense	13	52%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.3	1.5	32%	36%	.43	6%	1.9
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 4.64 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 22.45 #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.91 #71
2023 Talent Rating: 626.86 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Memphis's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Memphis's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #14
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 4.64 Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 2.8 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 11 - 2
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 32
Arkansas State 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Arkansas State	3	Memphis	37	Memphis -21	Memphis	57.0	Under
2022	09/17	Memphis	44	Arkansas State	32	Memphis -14.5	Arkansas State	64.0	Over
2021	09/11	Arkansas State	50	Memphis	55	Memphis -5.5	Arkansas State	65.0	Over
2020	09/05	Memphis	37	Arkansas State	24	Memphis -18.5	Arkansas State	71.5	Under
2013	09/21	Memphis	31	Arkansas State	7	Arkansas State -3	Memphis	0
2012	09/08	Arkansas State	33	Memphis	28
2011	09/10	Arkansas State	47	Memphis	3
2008	09/27	Memphis	29	Arkansas State	17
2007	09/27	Arkansas State	35	Memphis	31
2006	10/14	Memphis	23	Arkansas State	26
2004	09/18	Arkansas State	35	Memphis	47
2003	09/27	Memphis	38	Arkansas State	16
2000	09/15	Arkansas State	17	Memphis	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	4	3	2 Overs
Memphis	9	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	2 - 3	0 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 8	3 - 2	1 - 2	2 - 0

(#36) MEM at (#100) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MEM	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#36	#100
SP+SP+	#57	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#41	#58
OffenseOff	#22	#54
DefenseDef	#97	#60
Spec TeamsST	#103	#113
TalentTal	#64	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#75

Memphis Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Memphis on Offense


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#24	#95
SP+SP+	#14	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Memphis Run Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#82	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Memphis Pass Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#18	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#97
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#71
SP+SP+	#72	#112
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#72	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#74
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Memphis 21.0 (57.0)
Memphis won at Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	318	476	67%	3883	32	9	8.2
Tevin Carter	3	5	60%	101	1	1	20.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Watson (Tr)	192	1152	14	6.0	69
Sutton Smith	63	305	2	4.8	26
Seth Henigan	94	274	5	2.9	24
Brandon Thomas	46	172	9	3.7	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	69	1083	4	15.7	85
DeMeer Blankumsee (Tr)	53	901	7	17.0	70
Blake Watson (Tr)	53	485	3	9.2	63
Joseph Scates	33	414	6	12.5	54

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Matt Barnes (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Geoff Cantin-Arku	79	5	1	1	2
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	0	2	5
Cameron Smith	57	0	0	2	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin (Tr)	94	17	3	3	2
Gregory Rubin	52	3	3	1	3
Keveionta Spears	17	4	2	1	1
Jaylon Allen	41	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
DeAgo Brumfeld	42	3	1	10
Cameron Smith	57	0	2	6
Simeon Blair (Tr)	63	5	2	5

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5