Memphis at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Memphis logo Memphis Tigers at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -21 (57.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Memphis 37 - Arkansas State: 3

 
Tigers (10 - 3) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 39 - 29 (42 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 3.9 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Memphis -8.5   (SP+ MEM -10.5)
Projected Score: MEM: 35 - ARST: 26 (61)
MEM Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
MEM Travel: 64 miles
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (35 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Memphis's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Memphis vs Bethune-Cookman-49.059.5W 56 - 14ON
Sat 9/9 Memphis at Arkansas State-21.057.0W 37 - 3UY
Thu 9/14 Memphis vs Navy-12.547.0W 28 - 24ON
Sat 9/23 Memphis vs Missouri+6.552.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/30 Memphis vs Boise State-3.058.0W 35 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/13 Memphis vs Tulane+4.554.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 10/21 Memphis at UAB-7.561.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 10/28 Memphis at North Texas-6.570.0W 45 - 42ON
Sat 11/4 Memphis vs South Florida-13.568.5W 59 - 50ON
Sat 11/11 Memphis at Charlotte-9.551.5W 44 - 38ON
Sat 11/18 Memphis vs SMU+9.564.5L 34 - 38OY
Fri 11/24 Memphis at Temple-13.563.5W 45 - 21OY
Fri 12/29 Memphis at Iowa State+10.558.0W 36 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#18 (.3)47% (23)39.447% (33)2.96 (98)15247% (22)3064.6 (16)#82 (.2)44% (90)28.844% (82)44% (103)4.12 (99)41.21.21.5
ARST#81 (.17)42% (73)27.143% (71)3.12 (65)14841% (80)2253.21 (114)#110 (.25)42% (72)30.444% (80)41% (59)4.05 (92)60.911.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Offense1339.44246.6%4.61.2234581523064.643%57%47%47%13%.3
ARST Defense1330.42642.3%4.051.2 - - - - - 50%49%44%41%15%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MEM Defense1328.825.243.7%4.121.5 - - - - - 49%50%44%44%16%.2
ARST Offense1327.134.841.6%3.211203741482254.250%49%43%41%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Memphis1331:0822.745%64%4.141.21.21.55.11.6331.2
Arkansas State1326:1719.836%35%6.260.911.26.21.8430.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Offense1343% (111)47% (33)331524.631 (17).17 (57)2.96 (98)66% (117)8% (25)1.03 (52)
ARST Defense1350% (65)44% (80) - - - - .17 (88)3.09 (66)85% (124)10% (71)1.01 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MEM Defense1349% (56)44% (82) - - - - .17 (92)2.98 (46)62% (15)9% (92)1.08 (105)
ARST Offense1350% (72)43% (71)35.3148.24.220 (61).16 (66)3.12 (65)69% (104)9% (58)1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Offense1357% (19)47% (22)24.737306.58.312.433 (11)10 (56).42 (22)1.6 (50)27% (8)39% (7).62 (5)6% (49)2.2 (23)
ARST Defense1349% (73)41% (59) - - - - - - 8 (100).34 (105)1.6 (59)31% (83)24% (11).3 (66)5% (111)2.2 (116)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MEM Defense1350% (78)44% (103) - - - - - - 11 (53).28 (75)1.7 (88)30% (112)32% (93).3 (65)7% (38)2.2 (99)
ARST Offense1349% (65)41% (80)1628.5225.57.914.117 (85)9 (40).24 (83)1.7 (40)31% (59)31% (68).28 (88)6% (87)2.1 (53)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 4.64 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 22.45 #24
Memphis's Defense Rating: 9.91 #71
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Memphis's 2023 Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90
Memphis's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #14
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 4.64   Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 2.8   Arkansas State: -7.5




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Memphis Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 42
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Memphis's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 35
Arkansas State 26


Total Points: 61

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/09Arkansas State3Memphis37MemphisMemphis -21Memphis57.0Under
202209/17Memphis44Arkansas State32MemphisMemphis -14.5Arkansas State64.0Over
202109/11Arkansas State50Memphis55MemphisMemphis -5.5Arkansas State65.0Over
202009/05Memphis37Arkansas State24MemphisMemphis -18.5Arkansas State71.5Under
201309/21Memphis31Arkansas State7MemphisArkansas State -3Memphis0
201209/08Arkansas State33Memphis28Arkansas State
201109/10Arkansas State47Memphis3Arkansas State
200809/27Memphis29Arkansas State17Memphis
200709/27Arkansas State35Memphis31Arkansas State
200610/14Memphis23Arkansas State26Arkansas State
200409/18Arkansas State35Memphis47Memphis
200309/27Memphis38Arkansas State16Memphis
200009/15Arkansas State17Memphis19Memphis
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State432 Overs
Memphis922 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 52 - 30 - 22 - 1
Road Teams5 - 83 - 21 - 22 - 0

(#36) Memphis Info
Power Rating: 4.64 #36
Offense Rating: 22.45 #24
Defense Rating: 9.91 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #14
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Expected Record: 9.10 - 3.90


Memphis has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 6 - 0 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Memphis Highlights
Memphis offense is efficent (#37)
Memphis offense is explosive (#67)
Memphis offense is good in red zone (#27)
Memphis offense is good on 3rd downs
Memphis Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#11)
Memphis commits very few Penalties (#67)

Memphis Deficiencies
Memphis gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#94)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatARSTMEM
OverallOver#47#34
OffenseOff#50#20
DefenseDef#51#75
Special TeamsST#91#81
PassingPass#78#14
RushingRush#50#58
Run BlockRBLK#22#22
Pass BlockPBLK#80#16
Route RunningWR Rt#44#25
TacklingTkl#29#116
Run DefenseR Def#64#75
Pass Rush DefPRush#87#57
Coverage DefCov#14#85

Rematch from Week 2
Memphis 21.0 (57.0)
Memphis won at Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Memphis beat Arkansas State in 2022 (44-32)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MEM | ARST
Depth Chart: MEM | ARST
Rosters: MEM | ARST
(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30


Arkansas State has lost 1 straight
Record at home: 4 - 2 (3 - 2 - 1 vs Spread)

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)


  
Memphis's OC Tim Cramsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Seth Henigan31847667%38833298.2
Tevin Carter3560%1011120.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Watson (Tr)1921152146.069
Sutton Smith6330524.826
Seth Henigan9427452.924
Brandon Thomas4617293.742
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roc Taylor691083415.785
DeMeer Blankumsee (Tr)53901717.070
Blake Watson (Tr)5348539.263
Joseph Scates33414612.554

View Memphis's Full Roster
Memphis's DC Matt Barnes
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Martin (Tr)9417332
Geoff Cantin-Arku795112
Simeon Blair (Tr)635025
Cameron Smith570026
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Martin (Tr)9417332
Gregory Rubin523313
Keveionta Spears174211
Jaylon Allen417232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeAgo Brumfeld4230110
Cameron Smith570026
Simeon Blair (Tr)635025

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005