Arkansas State at Southern Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -7 (57.0) (-250) Open: -7.0
Arkansas State 44 - Southern Miss: 28 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Arkansas State -16 (SP+ ARST -15.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 35 - USM: 19 (55)
ARST Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 322 miles

Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Southern Miss at Kentucky	+25.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/7	Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana	-17.5	53.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Southern Miss vs South Florida	+13.0	58.5	L 24 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Southern Miss at Jacksonville State	+6.0	59.5	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+17.5	57.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	+4.5	41.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/19	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	+7.0	57.0	L 28 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Southern Miss at James Madison	+24.0	54.0	L 15 - 32	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Southern Miss vs Marshall	+13.5	53.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/16	Southern Miss at Texas State	+27.5	56.5	L 3 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/23	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+24.0	54.0	L 14 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Southern Miss at Troy	+17.5	48.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
USM	#109 (.12)	37% (121)	28.8	40% (106)	2.89 (107)	163	34% (126)	191	3.07 (121)	#105 (.24)	42% (69)	27.4	41% (49)	45% (109)	4.15 (103)	48.2	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
USM Defense	12	27.4	27.3	42.2%	4.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	45%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
USM Offense	12	28.8	30.9	36.7%	3.07	1.3	20	354	163	191	4	53%	46%	40%	34%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
Southern Miss	12	33:15	20.3	38%	44%	6.3	48.2	1.3	1.4	4.5	2.1	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
USM Defense	12	53% (106)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.22 (109)	3.21 (94)	67% (30)	10% (76)	1.24 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
USM Offense	12	53% (41)	40% (106)	40.5	163.4	4	16 (89)	.13 (80)	2.89 (107)	67% (109)	12% (109)	1.11 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
USM Defense	12	46% (27)	45% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (101)	1.7 (101)	31% (93)	33% (103)	.4 (106)	6% (63)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
USM Offense	12	46% (92)	34% (126)	15.7	30.4	190.7	6.3	12.2	15 (96)	8 (30)	.14 (114)	1.7 (26)	36% (126)	28% (87)	.34 (67)	8% (117)	2.1 (49)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Southern Miss: -24.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Southern Miss: -25.6

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 222.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 35
Southern Miss 19

Projected Total Points: 55

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Arkansas State	21	Southern Miss	27	Southern Miss -6.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2024	10/19	Southern Miss	28	Arkansas State	44	Arkansas State -7	Arkansas State	57.0	Over
2023	09/23	Arkansas State	44	Southern Miss	37	Southern Mississippi -7	Arkansas State	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	Southern Miss	20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Mississippi -4.5	Arkansas State	53.0	Under
2008	09/13	Arkansas State	24	Southern Miss	27
2007	11/24	Southern Miss	16	Arkansas State	10
2005	12/20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Miss	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	5	0	2 Overs
Arkansas State	2	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#91) ARST at (#133) USM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	USM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#91	#133
SP+SP+	#104	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#134
OffenseOff	#82	#134
DefenseDef	#121	#123
Spec TeamsST	#76	#88
TalentTal	#67	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#102

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Southern Miss Notes(12/10) Hired HC C Huff (Marshall HC last 6 years)
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
(7/30) New OC Chip Long (ND), DC Bignell (ND Analyst)
Southern Miss Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#123
SuccessSuc	#73	#69
ExplosiveExp	#35	#125
PPAPPA	#81	#105
PowerPwr	#62	#125
SP+SP+	#87	#128
Pts POPPO	#114	#103
HavocHav	#69	#73

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#101	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#49
Run ExplRExp	#43	#129
PPAExp	#66	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#94
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#82
TackleTak	-	#135

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#101
PPAExp	#83	#101
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#62
F7 HavocF7	#58	#76
DB HavocDB	#87	#63

Southern Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#121
SuccessSuc	#121	#72
ExplosiveExp	#24	#62
PPAPPA	#109	#110
PowerPwr	#134	#124
SP+SP+	#130	#119
Pts POPPO	#121	#92
HavocHav	#117	#103

Southern Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#98	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#80
Run ExplRExp	#19	#78
PPAExp	#80	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#109	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

Southern Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#59
PPAExp	#114	#105
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#105	#78
F7 HavocF7	#109	#71
DB HavocDB	#117	#111

Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Arkansas State 7.0 (57.0)
Arkansas State won at Southern Miss this year (44-28)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State last year (27-21)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2024 (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4

USM's OC Chip Long (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker (Tr)	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0
Ethan Crawford	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodrigues Clark	124	604	1	4.9	54
Kenyon Clay	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford	97	209	3	2.2	21
Jalen Washington	26	118	1	4.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Larry Simmons (Tr)	27	421	1	15.6	75
Tiaquelin Mims	33	393	1	11.9	56
Kenyon Clay	21	225	1	10.7	37
Kyirin Heath (Tr)	15	210	2	14.0	34

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Clay Bignell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Pinkney (Tr)	74	5	1	2	0
Jay Jones	46	3	0	3	3
Chris Jones	46	3	1	0	1
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Ryan Johnson (Tr)	23	4	3	9	0
Jalil Clemons	34	7	3	3	0
Jameer Lewis	24	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	0	7
Ques McNeal	29	2	0	0	4
Ja'Len Sims	45	5	1	1	3