Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -7 (57.0) (-250) Open: -7.0
Arkansas State 44 - Southern Miss: 28 (Sun Belt)
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Arkansas State -16 (SP+ ARST -15.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 36 - USM: 20 (56)
ARST Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 322 miles
Our Line: Arkansas State -16 (SP+ ARST -15.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 36 - USM: 20 (56)
ARST Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 322 miles
Golden Eagles (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Coach Reed Stringer (Int) (13 - 24)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
| Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | |||||
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5 | 65.5 | W 28 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0 | 47.5 | L 18 - 28 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5 | 52.0 | L 7 - 52 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5 | 62.5 | W 18 - 16 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5 | 66.0 | L 9 - 41 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0 | 57.0 | W 44 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5 | 50.0 | W 34 - 31 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0 | 60.0 | L 19 - 55 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5 | 60.0 | W 27 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0 | 51.5 | W 28 - 21 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5 | 58.5 | L 32 - 40 | O | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5 | 54.5 | W 38 - 31 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Southern Miss at Kentucky | +25.5 | 50.5 | L 0 - 31 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana | -17.5 | 53.5 | W 35 - 10 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Southern Miss vs South Florida | +13.0 | 58.5 | L 24 - 49 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Southern Miss at Jacksonville State | +6.0 | 59.5 | L 7 - 44 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +17.5 | 57.5 | L 13 - 23 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | +4.5 | 41.0 | L 21 - 38 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | +7.0 | 57.0 | L 28 - 44 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Southern Miss at James Madison | +24.0 | 54.0 | L 15 - 32 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Southern Miss vs Marshall | +13.5 | 53.5 | L 3 - 37 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | Southern Miss at Texas State | +27.5 | 56.5 | L 3 - 58 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +24.0 | 54.0 | L 14 - 35 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Southern Miss at Troy | +17.5 | 48.5 | L 20 - 52 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 25.8 | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 32.2 | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| USM | #132 () | 35% (130) | 15.3 | 40% (108) | 2.59 (126) | 109 | 30% (133) | 175 | 2.75 (133) | #125 (.3) | 44% (97) | 37.8 | 45% (89) | 43% (93) | 4.17 (104) | 48.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||
| USM | #132 () | 35% (130) | 40% (108) | 2.59 (126) | 109 | 30% (133) | 175 | 2.75 (133) | #125 (.3) | 44% (97) | 45% (89) | 43% (93) | 4.17 (104) | 48.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 25.8 | 20.7 | 41% | 3.96 | 1.3 | 20 | 357 | 148 | 210 | 4.3 | 48% | 52% | 43% | 39% | 16% | .17 |
| USM Defense | 12 | 37.8 | 33 | 44.1% | 4.17 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | - | 55% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 14% | .3 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 32.2 | 37.3 | 48% | 4.62 | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 51% | 44% | 15% | .31 |
| USM Offense | 12 | 15.3 | 19.5 | 34.7% | 2.75 | 2.4 | 16 | 284 | 109 | 175 | 3.2 | 49% | 51% | 40% | 30% | 26% |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 13 | 26:56 | 20.3 | 40% | 75% | 5.1 | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 27.6 |
| Southern Miss | 12 | 27:22 | 15.5 | 25% | 44% | 6 | 48.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 26.5 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 48% (83) | 43% (84) | 34.8 | 147.8 | 4.3 | 16 (90) | .12 (72) | 3.01 (77) | 73% (71) | 9% (48) | 0.9 (99) |
| USM Defense | 12 | 55% (116) | 45% (89) | - | - | - | - | .27 (129) | 3.22 (101) | 71% (54) | 10% (80) | 1.21 (131) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 52% (84) | 51% (131) | - | - | - | - | .28 (131) | 3.45 (127) | 73% (65) | 9% (82) | 1.02 (85) |
| USM Offense | 12 | 49% (79) | 40% (108) | 34.2 | 109 | 3.2 | 13 (105) | .06 (103) | 2.59 (126) | 61% (124) | 18% (133) | 1 (53) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 52% (49) | 39% (96) | 19.6 | 31.6 | 209.6 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 17 (79) | 9 (48) | .21 (90) | 1.5 (88) | 31% (67) | 32% (55) | .39 (42) | 8% (115) | 2 (97) |
| USM Defense | 12 | 45% (20) | 43% (93) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6 (109) | .35 (114) | 1.7 (114) | 31% (77) | 35% (114) | .51 (124) | 5% (113) | 2.2 (116) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 48% (52) | 44% (110) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14 (23) | .35 (115) | 1.7 (103) | 29% (106) | 32% (89) | .51 (125) | 6% (74) | 2.3 (122) |
| USM Offense | 12 | 51% (55) | 30% (133) | 13.8 | 26.5 | 174.9 | 6.6 | 12.6 | 7 (130) | 17 (127) | -.05 (134) | 1.7 (30) | 38% (130) | 24% (125) | .15 (129) | 8% (122) | 2.1 (45) |
Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Southern Miss: -24.845
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Southern Miss: -25.6
Arkansas State: -7.76 Southern Miss: -24.845
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Southern Miss: -25.6
Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Southern Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Southern Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 36
Southern Miss 20
Total Points: 56
Arkansas State 36
Southern Miss 20
Total Points: 56
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33
Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33
Southern Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/19 | Southern Miss | 28 | Arkansas State | 44 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -7 | Arkansas State | 57.0 | Over |
| 2023 | 09/23 | Arkansas State | 44 | Southern Miss | 37 | Arkansas State | Southern Mississippi -7 | Arkansas State | 46.5 | Over |
| 2022 | 10/15 | Southern Miss | 20 | Arkansas State | 19 | Southern Miss | Southern Mississippi -4.5 | Arkansas State | 53.0 | Under |
| 2008 | 09/13 | Arkansas State | 24 | Southern Miss | 27 | Southern Miss | ||||
| 2007 | 11/24 | Southern Miss | 16 | Arkansas State | 10 | Southern Miss | ||||
| 2005 | 12/20 | Arkansas State | 19 | Southern Miss | 31 | Southern Miss |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | 4 | 0 | 2 Overs |
| Arkansas State | 2 | 3 | 1 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 3 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 0 - 1 | 1 - 1 |
| Road Teams | 3 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 - 1 | 1 - 0 |
(#91) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 1 straight
Arkansas State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 1 straight
Arkansas State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | USM | ARST |
| OverallOver | #99 | #73 |
| OffenseOff | #110 | #67 |
| DefenseDef | #102 | #100 |
| Special TeamsST | #74 | #64 |
| PassingPass | #102 | #37 |
| RushingRush | #69 | #71 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #106 | #23 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #89 | #97 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #101 | #74 |
| TacklingTkl | #119 | #112 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #100 | #99 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #55 | #67 |
| Coverage DefCov | #102 | #98 |
Rematch from Week 8
Arkansas State 7.0 (57.0)
Arkansas State won at Southern Miss this year (44-28)
Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss last year (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State in 2022 (20-19)
Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: ARST | USM
Depth Chart: ARST | USM
Rosters: ARST | USM
(#133) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Southern Miss has lost 4 straight
Southern Miss has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 5 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss has a really bad Offense
Southern Miss has a really bad Offense at Home
Southern Miss has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Southern Miss Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Southern Miss Can Not Run the Ball (#109)
Southern Miss throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad defensive line (#90)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)
Power Rating: -24.845 #133
Offense Rating: 7.03 #134
Defense Rating: 18.37 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -25.6 #133
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #128
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Southern Miss has lost 4 straight
Southern Miss has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 5 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
Southern Miss Notes
(11/25) Off awful vs S. Al, worst team in SBC
(11/18) Has to be worst Off in CFB. 3 pts in 2 straight L's
(10/22) Def stop rate 42% (#126) into week 9
(10/20) HC Will Hall fired, GM Reed Stringer Int?
(10/12) QB Crawford abysmal, Def torched in L (UL Mon)
(10/4) Def awful (B 10)/Off getting worse. Staff big trouble
(9/14) Allowed 369 yds rushing to S Fla. Rgame awful
(9/11) Worst Rgame in CFB to date. 36% suc, 39% stuffed
(9/1) Miserable L @ UK. Lucky game called. No Off
(7/30) QB Rodemaker (FSU) leads lots of SEC transfers
Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss has a really bad Offense
Southern Miss has a really bad Offense at Home
Southern Miss has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Southern Miss Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Southern Miss Can Not Run the Ball (#109)
Southern Miss throws a Lot of Interceptions (#60)
Southern Miss offense is really bad (#78)
Southern Miss Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#90)
Southern Miss offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#81)
Southern Miss run game is really bad (#99)
Southern Miss pass game is really bad (#56)
Southern Miss offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Southern Miss Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Southern Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#78)
Southern Miss has a bad defensive line (#90)
Southern Miss has a bad red zone defense (#64)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 259 | 420 | 62% | 2783 | 16 | 10 | 6.6 |
| Timmy McClain (Tr) | 14 | 21 | 67% | 163 | 3 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Wallace | 154 | 721 | 11 | 4.7 | 57 |
| Ja'Quez Cross | 115 | 638 | 2 | 5.5 | 49 |
| Jaylen Raynor | 137 | 387 | 3 | 2.8 | 40 |
| Devin Spencer | 40 | 206 | 0 | 5.2 | 23 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Rucker | 69 | 1053 | 7 | 15.3 | 79 |
| Courtney Jackson | 42 | 494 | 2 | 11.8 | 44 |
| Reagan Ealy | 23 | 262 | 0 | 11.4 | 22 |
| Adam Jones | 21 | 255 | 3 | 12.1 | 46 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Ham II (Tr) | 98 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Parks | 96 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Charles Willekes | 92 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Trevian Thomas | 79 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Jones | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryan Whitehead II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ian Jeffries | 21 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Collins (Tr) | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontay Joyner | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Websley Etienne | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jordan Mahoney (Tr) | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate Rodemaker (Tr) | 98 | 165 | 59% | 985 | 7 | 7 | 6.0 |
| Ethan Crawford | 50 | 120 | 42% | 849 | 0 | 7 | 7.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigues Clark | 124 | 604 | 1 | 4.9 | 54 |
| Kenyon Clay | 84 | 387 | 7 | 4.6 | 70 |
| Ethan Crawford | 97 | 209 | 3 | 2.2 | 21 |
| Jalen Washington | 26 | 118 | 1 | 4.5 | 14 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Simmons (Tr) | 27 | 421 | 1 | 15.6 | 75 |
| Tiaquelin Mims | 33 | 393 | 1 | 11.9 | 56 |
| Kenyon Clay | 21 | 225 | 1 | 10.7 | 37 |
| Kyirin Heath (Tr) | 15 | 210 | 2 | 14.0 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Pinkney (Tr) | 74 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jay Jones | 46 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Chris Jones | 46 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Len Sims | 45 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodarius Lewis | 39 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Johnson (Tr) | 23 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalil Clemons | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jameer Lewis | 24 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James (Tr) | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Ques McNeal | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Ja'Len Sims | 45 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 |