Louisiana at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana -9 (60.0) (-278) Open: -9.0
Arkansas State 37 - Louisiana: 17 (Sun Belt)

Ragin' Cajuns (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (24 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ULL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Louisiana -3 (SP+ ULL -8)
Projected Score: ULL: 30 - ARST: 27 (58)
ULL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ULL Travel: 397 miles

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULL Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisiana's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Louisiana vs Northwestern State	-35.0	54.5	W 38 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	Louisiana at Old Dominion	-6.0	51.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/16	Louisiana at UAB	+2.0	60.0	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Louisiana vs Buffalo	-10.5	57.5	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Louisiana at Minnesota	+9.5	49.0	L 24 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/7	Louisiana vs Texas State	-1.0	67.5	W 34 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Louisiana vs Georgia State	-3.0	62.0	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Louisiana at South Alabama	+11.5	55.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisiana at Arkansas State	-9.0	60.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 11/9	Louisiana vs Southern Miss	-8.5	51.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisiana at Troy	+17.5	47.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisiana vs UL Monroe	-12.5	53.0	W 52 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/16	Louisiana vs Jacksonville State	+3.5	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL	.13	40%	26	43%	3.2	144	38%	220	3.61	.17	41%	29.2	44%	38%	3.62	55.7	1.3	2.2
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Offense	13	26	23.8	40.1%	3.61	1.3	20	364	144	220	4.1	48%	51%	43%	38%	15%	.13
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Defense	13	29.2	32.8	40.5%	3.62	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	38%	15%	.17
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisiana	13	29:30	19.6	39%	52%	6.5	55.7	1.3	2.2	4.5	2.1	3	31.1
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Offense	13	48%	43%	35.2	144.4	4.1	10	.1	3.2	61%	8%	0.97
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.12	68%	8%	1
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Offense	13	51%	38%	19.4	33.9	219.9	6.5	11.4	27	9	.19	1.5	31%	31%	.33	7%	2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.19	1.6	30%	33%	.43	7%	2
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: -3.82 #86
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 19.41 #41
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 13.49 #107
2023 Talent Rating: 475.45 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Louisiana's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Louisiana's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3 #64
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #37
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: -3.82 Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: 0.3 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Louisiana's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisiana 30
Arkansas State 27

Projected Total Points: 58

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/20	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	34	Arkansas State -2.5	Louisiana	54.5	Over
2024	11/09	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	19	Louisiana -14.0	Louisiana	60.0	Over
2023	11/04	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	17	Louisiana -9	Arkansas State	60.0	Under
2022	10/22	Louisiana	38	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	51.0	Over
2021	10/21	Arkansas State	27	Louisiana	28	Louisiana -17	Arkansas State	70.0	Under
2020	11/07	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana -13.5	Arkansas State	69.5	Under
2019	10/17	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana	37	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	69.0	Under
2018	10/27	Louisiana	47	Arkansas State	43	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	69.0	Over
2017	10/19	Arkansas State	47	Louisiana	3	Arkansas State -12	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2016	11/26	Louisiana	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -6.5	Louisiana	50.5	Under
2015	10/20	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/21	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	40	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	59.0	Over
2013	10/22	Arkansas State	7	Louisiana	23	Louisiana -6.5	Louisiana	0
2012	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	50
2011	11/12	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	21
2010	09/11	Louisiana	31	Arkansas State	24
2009	11/07	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana	21
2008	10/18	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	23
2007	10/13	Arkansas State	52	Louisiana	21
2006	11/25	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	13
2005	10/13	Arkansas State	39	Louisiana	36
2004	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	24
2002	11/09	Louisiana	13	Arkansas State	10
2001	10/13	Arkansas State	26	Louisiana	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	5	6 Overs
Louisiana	16	8	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	18 - 6	9 - 4	4 - 2	5 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 18	4 - 9	2 - 5	2 - 4

(#86) ULL at (#100) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULL	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#86	#100
SP+SP+	#64	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#42	#58
OffenseOff	#29	#54
DefenseDef	#82	#60
Spec TeamsST	#41	#113
TalentTal	#96	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Louisiana Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Louisiana on Offense


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#41	#95
SP+SP+	#37	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisiana Run Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#55	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Louisiana Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#26	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#82
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#107
SP+SP+	#72	#102
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Run GameRun	#72	#107
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#48
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

ULL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Louisiana 9.0 (60.0)
Arkansas State won vs Louisiana this year (37-17)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Arkansas State last year (34-30)
Louisiana beat Arkansas State in 2024 (55-19)
Arkansas State beat Louisiana in 2023 (37-17)

ULL's OC Tim Leger (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zeon Chriss	102	153	67%	1222	11	5	8.0
Chandler Fields	96	143	67%	1069	7	3	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob Kibodi	129	729	7	5.7	69
Dre'Lyn Washington	92	515	2	5.6	62
Zeon Chriss	73	492	6	6.7	80
Zylan Perry	54	213	2	3.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob Bernard	39	476	1	12.2	43
Peter Leblanc	30	468	4	15.6	87
Robert Williams	31	385	4	12.4	60
Neal Johnson	30	383	5	12.8	40

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC LaMar Morgan (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K.C. Ossai	95	5	1	3	0
Jasper Williams	78	5	2	0	0
Tyrone Lewis	74	1	1	0	3
Kendre' Gant	64	12	6	3	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Whitfield	44	9	8	3	0
Jordan Lawson	43	9	7	4	0
Kendre' Gant	64	12	6	3	3
Tyler Guidry	26	8	5	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Keyon Martin	53	1	7
Caleb Anderson	23	1	5
Shadwell Nkuba II	13	0	5

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5