Arkansas State at Northern Illinois

Arkansas State at Northern Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -2.5 (54.0) (-110) Open: -1.5 | 53.5
Northern Illinois 21 - Arkansas State: 19 (Camellia Bowl)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Northern Illinois -3 (SP+ NIU -1)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - NIU: 26 (49)
ARST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 346 miles

Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (18 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ARST Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Northern Illinois at Boston College	+8.0	50.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-6.5	58.5	L 11 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	Northern Illinois at Nebraska	+11.5	42.5	L 11 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northern Illinois vs Tulsa	-3.5	54.5	L 14 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/30	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	48.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Northern Illinois at Akron	-4.0	42.5	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Northern Illinois vs Ohio	+5.5	45.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-11.5	43.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	-3.0	48.0	L 31 - 37	O	N
Tue 11/7	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-4.5	55.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northern Illinois at Kent State	-20.5	44.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
NIU	.19	41%	17.1	40%	3.16	190	43%	183	3.63	.27	44%	24.3	43%	47%	4.14	62.5	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
NIU Defense	12	24.3	20.8	44.5%	4.14	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	43%	47%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
NIU Offense	12	17.1	17.8	40.7%	3.63	1.3	19	373	190	183	4.8	59%	39%	40%	43%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Northern Illinois	12	30:48	18.8	39%	48%	6.3	62.5	1.3	1.8	4.6	2.4	1	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
NIU Defense	12	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.26	73%	9%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
NIU Offense	12	59%	40%	39.8	190.4	4.8	19	.16	3.16	82%	8%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
NIU Defense	12	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.49	1.8	31%	32%	.51	6%	2.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
NIU Offense	12	39%	43%	15.4	27.3	182.7	6.7	11.9	18	14	.33	1.6	32%	29%	.18	8%	1.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Northern Illinois: -4.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Northern Illinois: -6.7

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -4.23 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 26
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 49

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Northern Illinois	21	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2011	01/08	Northern Illinois	38	Arkansas State	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	2	1	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21
2019	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Florida International	+1.5	60.0	W 34 - 26
2018	N/A	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16
2017	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35

Northern Illinois Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Camellia Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19
2021	Cure Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina	+11.0	63.0	L 41 - 47
2018	Raton Bowl	Northern Illinois vs UAB	+1.0	41.5	L 13 - 37
2017	Lane Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Duke	+4.5	48.0	L 14 - 36

(#100) ARST at (#74) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#74
SP+SP+	#92	#85
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#82
OffenseOff	#54	#78
DefenseDef	#60	#64
Spec TeamsST	#113	#119
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Arkansas State Injury Report

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#48
SP+SP+	#72	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#72	#67
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#60

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#92
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#61	#95
SP+SP+	#109	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#83	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#87	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cramton Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State 2.5 (54.0)
Northern Illinois won vs Arkansas State this year (21-19)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-19)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocky Lombardi	189	327	58%	2274	11	7	7.0
Ethan Hampton	19	33	58%	147	2	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antario Brown	212	1294	10	6.1	80
Gavin Williams (Tr)	95	488	3	5.1	53
Trayvon Rudolph	22	182	1	8.3	36
Rocky Lombardi	72	131	7	1.8	33

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	51	531	2	10.4	72
Grayson Barnes	23	422	5	18.3	58
Kacper Rutkiewicz	20	313	2	15.7	64
Davis Patterson	16	197	0	12.3	28

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raishein Thomas	74	7	3	5	1
Jaden Dolphin	63	1	0	0	3
Tyler Jackson	56	2	0	2	0
DaRon Gilbert	52	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Ester	44	6	4	3	2
Roy Williams	24	6	4	1	1
George Gumbs	34	8	4	2	0
Devonte O'Malley	33	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jashon Prophete	33	1	8
Javaughn Byrd	32	2	5
Jacob Finley	33	1	3