Arkansas State at Northern Illinois

Arkansas State at Northern Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -2.5 (54.0) (-110) Open: -1.5 | 53.5
Northern Illinois 21 - Arkansas State: 19 (Camellia Bowl)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Northern Illinois -3 (SP+ NIU -1)
Projected Score: ARST: 25 - NIU: 28 (50)
ARST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 433 miles

Huskies (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (18 - 29)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 4.8 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ARST Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Northern Illinois at Boston College	+8.0	50.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Northern Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-6.5	58.5	L 11 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	Northern Illinois at Nebraska	+11.5	42.5	L 11 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northern Illinois vs Tulsa	-3.5	54.5	L 14 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/30	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	48.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Northern Illinois at Akron	-4.0	42.5	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Northern Illinois vs Ohio	+5.5	45.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	-11.5	43.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	-3.0	48.0	L 31 - 37	O	N
Tue 11/7	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-9.5	43.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-4.5	55.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northern Illinois at Kent State	-20.5	44.5	W 37 - 27	O	N
Sat 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
NIU	.19	41%	24.5	40%	3.16	190	43%	183	3.63	.27	44%	18.5	43%	47%	4.14	62.5	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.8	20.7	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
NIU Defense	12	18.5	17.2	44.5%	4.14	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	43%	47%	15%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	32.2	37.3	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
NIU Offense	12	24.5	27.8	40.7%	3.63	1.3	19	373	190	183	4.8	59%	39%	40%	43%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Northern Illinois	12	30:48	18.8	39%	48%	6.3	62.5	1.3	1.8	4.6	2.4	1	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
NIU Defense	12	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.26	73%	9%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
NIU Offense	12	59%	40%	39.8	190.4	4.8	19	.16	3.16	82%	8%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
NIU Defense	12	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.49	1.8	31%	32%	.51	6%	2.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
NIU Offense	12	39%	43%	15.4	27.3	182.7	6.7	11.9	18	14	.33	1.6	32%	29%	.18	8%	1.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Northern Illinois: -4.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Northern Illinois: -6.7

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -4.23 #74
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
2023 Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Northern Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80
Northern Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 28
Arkansas State 25

Projected Total Points: 50

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.2

Northern Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Northern Illinois	21	Arkansas State	19	Northern Illinois	Arkansas State -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2011	01/08	Northern Illinois	38	Arkansas State	20	Northern Illinois

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	2	1	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21
2019	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Florida International	+1.5	60.0	W 34 - 26
2018	N/A	Arkansas State vs Nevada	+1.5	56.5	L 13 - 16
2017	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35

Northern Illinois Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Camellia Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19
2021	Cure Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina	+11.0	63.0	L 41 - 47
2018	Raton Bowl	Northern Illinois vs UAB	+1.0	41.5	L 13 - 37
2017	Lane Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Duke	+4.5	48.0	L 14 - 36

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Team Profile

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Arkansas State has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 2)
Arkansas State has played in 12 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 7)

Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Northern Illinois

Power #100

#74

Off #85

#61

Def #95

#48

Talent #81

#58

SP+ #92

#85

SP+ Off #72

#109

SP+ Def #108

#47

Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State 2.5 (54.0)
Northern Illinois won vs Arkansas State this year (21-19)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cramton Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | NIU
Depth Chart: ARST | NIU
Rosters: ARST | NIU

(#74) Northern Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.23 #74
Offense Rating: 17.02 #61
Defense Rating: 8.15 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #109
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.20 - 4.80

Team Profile

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Northern Illinois has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 2)
Northern Illinois has played in 15 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 10)

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Reagan Ealy	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Mike Sharpe II	4	22	0	5.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46
Emmanuel Stevenson	28	203	1	7.3	29

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Blayne Toll	9	1	1	2	0
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3

Northern Illinois's OC Eric Eidsness

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Williams (Tr)	139	749	4	5.4	71
Antario Brown	115	567	4	4.9	49
Brock Lampe	7	14	1	2.0	3
Kanon Woodill	1	0	0	0.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Antario Brown	8	204	1	25.5	83
Gavin Williams (Tr)	25	140	1	5.6	35
Brock Lampe	9	91	1	10.1	21
Tristen Tewes	6	41	1	6.8	12

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

Northern Illinois's DC Nick Benedetto

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
CJ Brown	73	2	0	1	2
Jaden Dolphin	61	3	0	0	2
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Devin Lafayette	50	6	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte O'Malley	38	12	9	4	1
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Cade Haberman	27	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Valcarcel	53	2	2	4	8
Jashon Prophete	43	2	0	0	4
Javaughn Byrd	39	0	0	0	3