Louisiana at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisiana logo Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Thursday, November 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Arkansas State -2.5 (54.5) (-130)  Open: -3.5
Louisiana 34 - Arkansas State: 30  (Sun Belt)

 
Ragin' Cajuns (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (23 - 17)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (24 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Heavy Rain Predicted
ULL coming off BYE
ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: Arkansas State -3  (SP+ ULL -1)

Projected Score: ULL: 25 - ARST: 28 (54)
ARST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ULL Travel: 397 miles
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Louisiana's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana vs Rice-14.549.5L 12 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Louisiana vs McNeese-19.050.0W 34 - 10UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana at Missouri+27.547.5L 10 - 52ON
Sat 9/20 Louisiana at Eastern Michigan-2.551.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 9/27 Louisiana vs Marshall+2.547.5W 54 - 51OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Louisiana at James Madison+18.544.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/18 Louisiana vs Southern Miss+4.554.5L 10 - 22UN
Sat 10/25 Louisiana at Troy+7.047.5L 23 - 35ON
Sat 11/1 Louisiana at South Alabama+3.552.5W 31 - 22OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana vs Texas State+3.562.5W 42 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Louisiana at Arkansas State+2.554.5W 34 - 30OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana vs UL Monroe-10.547.5W 30 - 27ON
Wed 12/17 Louisiana vs Delaware-1.560.5L 13 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULL#101 (.12)39% (109)2642% (84)2.9 (76)18335% (128)1613.45 (93)#90 (.19)46% (124)29.248% (126)45% (109)3.33 (39)46.51.51.4
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULL#16 (.3)45% (47)42% (91)3.24 (35)15947% (17)2424.27 (32)#97 (.22)48% (126)53% (133)44% (105)4.43 (121)44.50.61.4
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULL Offense132623.838.7%3.451.5193441831614.657%41%42%35%16%.12
ARST Defense1327.427.243.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULL Defense1329.232.846.1%3.331.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%45%14%.19
ARST Offense1325.22942%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisiana1329:5818.941%55%5.946.51.51.44.51.7227.6
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULL Offense1357% (22)42% (84)39.6182.94.626 (40).13 (62)2.9 (76)71% (75)11% (110)0.99 (58)
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULL Defense1353% (109)48% (126) - - - - .18 (115)3.29 (126)73% (80)9% (103)0.99 (89)
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULL Offense1341% (120)35% (128)14.426.2161.26.111.212 (121)14 (119).15 (115)1.6 (45)33% (108)26% (110).21 (102)5% (44)1.9 (108)
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULL Defense1345% (29)45% (109) - - - - - - 9 (55).27 (81)1.5 (32)26% (133)28% (44).31 (75)5% (104)2.3 (133)
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: -12.00  #120
Louisiana's Offense Rating: 2.57  #110
Louisiana's Defense Rating: 14.57  #109
2025 Talent Rating: 568.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Louisiana's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Louisiana's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.7  #100
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #116

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: -12.00   Arkansas State: -7.31

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: -8.7   Arkansas State: -9.8




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.31  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Louisiana's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 28
Louisiana 25


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 27
Louisiana 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 29
Louisiana 26

Total Points: 55
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/20Arkansas State30Louisiana34Arkansas State -2.5Louisiana54.5Over
202411/09Louisiana55Arkansas State19Louisiana -14.0Louisiana60.0Over
202311/04Arkansas State37Louisiana17Louisiana -9Arkansas State60.0Under
202210/22Louisiana38Arkansas State18Louisiana -6Louisiana51.0Over
202110/21Arkansas State27Louisiana28Louisiana -17Arkansas State70.0Under
202011/07Louisiana27Arkansas State20Louisiana -13.5Arkansas State69.5Under
201910/17Arkansas State20Louisiana37Louisiana -6Louisiana69.0Under
201810/27Louisiana47Arkansas State43Arkansas State -3Louisiana69.0Over
201710/19Arkansas State47Louisiana3Arkansas State -12Arkansas State66.5Under
201611/26Louisiana24Arkansas State19Arkansas State -6.5Louisiana50.5Under
201510/20Arkansas State37Louisiana27Arkansas State -6Arkansas State55.5Over
201410/21Louisiana55Arkansas State40Arkansas State -3Louisiana59.0Over
201310/22Arkansas State7Louisiana23Louisiana -6.5Louisiana0
201210/23Louisiana27Arkansas State50
201111/12Arkansas State30Louisiana21
201009/11Louisiana31Arkansas State24
200911/07Arkansas State18Louisiana21
200810/18Louisiana28Arkansas State23
200710/13Arkansas State52Louisiana21
200611/25Louisiana28Arkansas State13
200510/13Arkansas State39Louisiana36
200410/23Louisiana27Arkansas State24
200211/09Louisiana13Arkansas State10
200110/13Arkansas State26Louisiana20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State856 Overs
Louisiana1686 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams18 - 69 - 44 - 25 - 2
Road Teams6 - 184 - 92 - 52 - 4

(#120) ULL at (#108) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatULLARST
Power RatePwr #120 #108
SP+SP+ #100 #105
Perf GradeGrade #121 #93
OffenseOff #120 #86
DefenseDef #113 #94
Spec TeamsST #116 #62
TalentTal #102 #75
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Louisiana Notes
(11/21) Was 2-6, won 3 straight to stay in bowl fight
(11/20) QB Lunch Winfield a find. Program changer?
(10/19) 1-4 run, can't Pass and teams know it. Killing Off
(9/20) Def allowed 400 yds to EMU? WTF the deal here?
(9/20) Pass Off bottom 10 in CFB, Def is awful.
(9/4) QB Daniel Beale (rFr) now starter this year
(9/4) QB Walker Howard likely out for the season
(9/4) 4 straight years starting QB has been injured
(8/30) Offense awful in bad L to Rice, Howard terrible
(8/28) Don't love HC Desormeaux so far
(8/19) QB1 Walker Howard named starter Aug 19th
(8/1) Off has great potential, but slow & methodical
Louisiana Injury Report
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Louisiana on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
ULL OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #120 #94
SuccessSuc #109 #90
ExplosiveExp #93 #95
PPAPPA #101 #89
PowerPwr #110 #102
SP+SP+ #75 #104
Pts POPPO #93 #93
HavocHav #79 #70
Louisiana Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
ULL OffARST Def
Run GameRun #70 #79
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #81
Run ExplRExp #58 #92
PPAExp #62 #80
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #76 #45
Stuff RateStuff #108 #64
TackleTak -  #48
Louisiana Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
ULL OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #126 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #128 #93
Pass ExplPExl #45 #89
PPAExp #115 #97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #92 #82
F7 HavocF7 #110 #39
DB HavocDB #44 #109
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffULL Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #113
SuccessSuc #71 #124
ExplosiveExp #124 #37
PPAPPA #112 #90
PowerPwr #102 #109
SP+SP+ #97 #116
Pts POPPO #110 #39
HavocHav #111 #111
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffULL Def
Run GameRun #115 #111
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #126
Run ExplRExp #125 #89
PPAExp #125 #115
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #126
Stuff RateStuff #111 #106
TackleTak -  #90
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffULL Def
Pass GamePass #78 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #109
Pass ExplPExl #122 #32
PPAExp #86 #81
Pass Block/RushP Blk #13 #112
F7 HavocF7 #89 #103
DB HavocDB #125 #104
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ULL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 57°Rain: 0.063
Rematch from Week 13
Arkansas State -2.5 (54.5)
Louisiana won at Arkansas State this year (34-30)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Arkansas State last year (55-19)
Arkansas State beat Louisiana in 2023 (37-17)
Louisiana beat Arkansas State in 2022 (38-18)

  
ULL's OC Tim Leger (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D'Wayne' Winfield12721559%15551177.2
Daniel Beale428450%385144.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bill Davis15876364.876
Zylan Perry13868985.084
D'Wayne' Winfield15266794.442
Steven Blanco3015625.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shelton Sampson Jr. (Tr)32537616.845
Robert Williams25309012.444
Charles Robertson15250116.745
Caden Jensen2923118.040

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Jim Salgado (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Dugger12413413
Terrence Williams953100
Brent Gordon Jr.6210111
Tyree Skipper551102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Lawson5215591
Jaden Dugger12413413
Jaelen Crider254311
Cameron Whitfield302130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Gordon Jr.6210111
Courtline Flowers483104
Jaden Dugger12413413

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004