Arkansas State at Kennesaw State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Kennesaw State OwlsKennesaw State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -4.5 (57.5) (-192)  Open: -6.5
Kennesaw State 28 - Arkansas State: 21

 
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Light Rain Predicted
KENN 2nd straight Home Game
KENN is playing their 4th straight game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kennesaw State -8  (SP+ KENN -9)

Projected Score: ARST: 21 - KENN: 29 (50)
ARST Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 368 miles, 1 hrs behind
Owls (10 - 4) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Mack (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (31 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Kennesaw State at Wake Forest+17.551.5L 9 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 Kennesaw State at Indiana+35.551.5L 9 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Kennesaw State vs Merrimack-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/20 Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State+4.557.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 9/27 Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee-7.054.5W 24 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech+4.546.5W 35 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Kennesaw State at Florida International-3.048.5W 45 - 26OY
Tue 10/28 Kennesaw State vs UTEP-12.553.5W 33 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 Kennesaw State at New Mexico State-11.552.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.556.5L 26 - 35ON
Sat 11/22 Kennesaw State vs Missouri State-6.554.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 11/29 Kennesaw State at Liberty-2.555.5W 48 - 42OY
Fri 12/5 Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.062.5W 19 - 15UY
Fri 12/19 Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan+3.047.0L 6 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kennesaw State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
KENN#72 (.17)41% (86)26.742% (88)2.82 (93)16042% (66)2432.95 (126)#66 (.16)42% (74)25.544% (86)41% (65)3.57 (61)66.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
KENN#134 (-.04)31% (133)31% (134)2.16 (134)11632% (129)1363.5 (103)#93 (.21)46% (114)45% (91)48% (122)4.15 (102)46.31.51



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22142%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09
KENN Defense1425.518.542.1%3.571.1 - - - - - 53%46%44%41%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.843.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
KENN Offense1426.731.341.3%2.951.3224031602434.253%45%42%42%15%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
Kennesaw State1428:0621.540%59%7.566.81.31.16.42.2129
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)
KENN Defense1453% (104)44% (86) - - - - .16 (100)2.97 (83)69% (52)11% (43)1.03 (104)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
KENN Offense1453% (43)42% (88)38.6160.14.220 (107).11 (73)2.82 (93)80% (18)10% (77)1.03 (45)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)
KENN Defense1446% (41)41% (65) - - - - - - 9 (100).19 (48)1.4 (21)30% (89)25% (14).19 (28)6% (59)2.2 (127)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
KENN Offense1445% (98)42% (66)18.630.2243.1813.126 (86)11 (7).33 (43)1.7 (18)33% (103)32% (54).39 (38)6% (50)2.2 (21)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -9.82  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.82   Kennesaw State: -1.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.8   Kennesaw State: -1.2




Kennesaw State's Power Ratings
Kennesaw State's Power Rating: -1.58  #95
Kennesaw State's Offense Rating: 6.77  #81
Kennesaw State's Defense Rating: 13.73  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 358.00  #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Kennesaw State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Kennesaw State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #78
Kennesaw State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #64
Kennesaw State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Kennesaw State 29
Arkansas State 21


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Kennesaw State 18
Arkansas State 17

Total Points: 36

Based on Entire Season
Kennesaw State 27
Arkansas State 22

Total Points: 49
Kennesaw State Scoring
Offense: 26.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 25.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Kennesaw State's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Kennesaw State28Arkansas State21Arkansas State -4.5Kennesaw State57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kennesaw State110 Overs
Arkansas State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#108) ARST at (#95) KENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTKENN
Power RatePwr #108 #95
SP+SP+ #105 #78
Perf GradeGrade #93 #94
OffenseOff #86 #85
DefenseDef #94 #77
Spec TeamsST #62 #123
TalentTal #75 #129
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #101
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Kennesaw State Notes
(12/6) CUSA champs, cannot overstate job Mack did
(12/3) Owls have major injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat Liberty in 2 OT. Owls will play Jax St in CUSA Title
(10/29) Even game vs UTEP, Off awful, Def & STs saved
(10/29) 300 yds and 3-14 on 3rd down vs UTEP? Still W
(10/22) HC Mack & staff incredible job. Current CUSA fav
(10/22) QB Amari Odom went down vs FIU, monitor
(10/21) RB Coleman Bennett has real speed, good weapon
(10/9) So QB Amari Odom taken QB1 job, been much better
(9/24) Run Def held Ark St to 92 yds, Pass Def was OK
(9/20) Huge W vs Ark St, QB Odom a revelation 300+
(8/16) QB D. Williams (GSU) will start, S Williams #2
Kennesaw State Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffKENN Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #77
SuccessSuc #71 #74
ExplosiveExp #124 #50
PPAPPA #112 #66
PowerPwr #102 #103
SP+SP+ #97 #82
Pts POPPO #110 #61
HavocHav #111 #45
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffKENN Def
Run GameRun #115 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #86
Run ExplRExp #125 #104
PPAExp #125 #100
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #83
Stuff RateStuff #111 #68
TackleTak -  #85
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffKENN Def
Pass GamePass #78 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #65
Pass ExplPExl #122 #21
PPAExp #86 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #13 #51
F7 HavocF7 #89 #43
DB HavocDB #125 #59
Kennesaw State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatKENN OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #85 #94
SuccessSuc #86 #90
ExplosiveExp #23 #95
PPAPPA #72 #89
PowerPwr #81 #102
SP+SP+ #64 #104
Pts POPPO #126 #93
HavocHav #61 #70
Kennesaw State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
KENN OffARST Def
Run GameRun #83 #79
Run SuccessRSuc #88 #81
Run ExplRExp #45 #92
PPAExp #73 #80
Run BlockR Blk #130 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #45
Stuff RateStuff #105 #64
TackleTak -  #48
Kennesaw State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatKENN OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #49 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #93
Pass ExplPExl #18 #89
PPAExp #43 #97
Pass Block/RushP Blk #92 #82
F7 HavocF7 #77 #39
DB HavocDB #50 #109
Program Comparison
KENN 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fifth Third Bank Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 84° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 4
Arkansas State 4.5 (57.5)
Kennesaw State won vs Arkansas State this year (28-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004

KENN's OC Mitch Militello (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Amari Odom18929165%25941988.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)6712554%787636.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Coleman Bennett (Tr)15776444.930
Chase Belcher (Tr)10756625.346
Amari Odom12034772.924
Alexander Diggs7228123.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gabriel Benyard60949915.854
Christian Moss44682215.570
Coleman Bennett (Tr)27314311.676
Clayton Coppock28311511.155

View Kennesaw State's Full Roster

KENN's DC Marc Mattioli (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Baron Hopson13910126
Tywon Christopher815212
Isaac Paul570002
Milon Jones533011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Hill2212960
Tylon Dunlap4011511
Donovan Westmoreland356411
Kody Jones (Tr)297243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Offord (Tr)4770012
JeRico Washington Jr.4321010
Baron Hopson13910126