Arkansas State at Kennesaw State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Kennesaw State Owls

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -4.5 (57.5) (-192) Open: -6.5
Kennesaw State 28 - Arkansas State: 21

Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

KENN 2nd straight Home Game
KENN is playing their 4th straight game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kennesaw State -6.5 (SP+ KENN -3)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - KENN: 30 (53)
ARST Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 368 miles, 1 hrs behind

Owls (10 - 4) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Mack (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (31 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
KENN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-15.5	59.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Arkansas State vs Arkansas	+23.5	62.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/13	Arkansas State vs Iowa State	+21.0	55.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Arkansas State at Kennesaw State	-4.5	57.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/27	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.5	55.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/4	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+14.0	63.5	W 31 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+8.5	57.5	W 15 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	59.5	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Arkansas State at Troy	+7.5	52.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+6.5	54.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/29	Arkansas State at App State	+1.0	54.5	W 30 - 29	O	Y
Thu 12/18	Arkansas State vs Missouri State	-1.5	55.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Kennesaw State at Wake Forest	+17.5	51.5	L 9 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Kennesaw State at Indiana	+35.5	51.5	L 9 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/13	Kennesaw State vs Merrimack	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/20	Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State	+4.5	57.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee	-7.0	54.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech	+4.5	46.5	W 35 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21	Kennesaw State at Florida International	-3.0	48.5	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Tue 10/28	Kennesaw State vs UTEP	-12.5	53.5	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Kennesaw State at New Mexico State	-11.5	52.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/15	Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State	-3.5	56.5	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/22	Kennesaw State vs Missouri State	-6.5	54.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Kennesaw State at Liberty	-2.5	55.5	W 48 - 42	O	Y
Fri 12/5	Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State	-3.0	62.5	W 19 - 15	U	Y
Fri 12/19	Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan	+3.0	47.0	L 6 - 41	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kennesaw State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.2	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	27.4	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
KENN	#134 (-.04)	31% (133)	26.7	31% (134)	2.16 (134)	116	32% (129)	136	3.5 (103)	#93 (.21)	46% (114)	25.5	45% (91)	48% (122)	4.15 (102)	46.3	1.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KENN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17
KENN Defense	12	25.5	18.5	46.2%	4.15	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	48%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31
KENN Offense	12	26.7	31.3	31.4%	3.5	1.5	14	252	116	136	3.1	58%	41%	31%	32%	17%	-.04

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6
Kennesaw State	12	29:20	13.7	35%	39%	5.6	46.3	1.5	1	4.8	1.8	3	28.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)
KENN Defense	12	52% (85)	45% (91)	-	-	-	-	.16 (86)	3.04 (75)	73% (65)	9% (93)	1 (73)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)
KENN Offense	12	58% (17)	31% (134)	37.4	115.5	3.1	13 (105)	-.05 (130)	2.16 (134)	74% (62)	12% (115)	1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)
KENN Defense	12	48% (50)	48% (122)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.27 (86)	1.3 (8)	26% (131)	30% (51)	.31 (71)	5% (119)	2 (63)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)
KENN Offense	12	41% (117)	32% (129)	13	24.8	136.3	5.5	10.5	6 (133)	14 (115)	- (133)	1.6 (52)	38% (131)	23% (130)	.16 (124)	5% (24)	2.1 (60)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -10.41 #103
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 10.99 #81
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 21.40 #118
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.41 Kennesaw State: -3.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -8.8 Kennesaw State: -5.4

Kennesaw State's Power Ratings
Kennesaw State's Power Rating: -3.35 #83
Kennesaw State's Offense Rating: 10.45 #85
Kennesaw State's Defense Rating: 16.75 #92
2025 Talent Rating: 358.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Kennesaw State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Kennesaw State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4 #89
Kennesaw State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #72
Kennesaw State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Kennesaw State 30
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 53

Kennesaw State Scoring
Offense: 26.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 25.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Kennesaw State's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Kennesaw State	28	Arkansas State	21	Arkansas State -4.5	Kennesaw State	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kennesaw State	1	1	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#103) ARST at (#83) KENN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	KENN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#103	#83
SP+SP+	#100	#89
Perf GradeGrade	#79	#99
OffenseOff	#76	#82
DefenseDef	#82	#81
Spec TeamsST	#39	#109
TalentTal	#75	#129
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#101

Arkansas State Notes(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report

Kennesaw State Notes(12/6) CUSA champs, cannot overstate job Mack did
(12/3) Owls have major injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat Liberty in 2 OT. Owls will play Jax St in CUSA Title
(10/29) Even game vs UTEP, Off awful, Def & STs saved
(10/29) 300 yds and 3-14 on 3rd down vs UTEP? Still W
(10/22) HC Mack & staff incredible job. Current CUSA fav
(10/22) QB Amari Odom went down vs FIU, monitor
(10/21) RB Coleman Bennett has real speed, good weapon
(10/9) So QB Amari Odom taken QB1 job, been much better
(9/24) Run Def held Ark St to 92 yds, Pass Def was OK
(9/20) Huge W vs Ark St, QB Odom a revelation 300+
(8/16) QB D. Williams (GSU) will start, S Williams #2
Kennesaw State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	KENN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#76	#81
SuccessSuc	#91	#114
ExplosiveExp	#102	#23
PPAPPA	#81	#93
PowerPwr	#81	#92
SP+SP+	#90	#93
Pts POPPO	#63	#102
HavocHav	#80	#112

Arkansas State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	KENN Def
Run GameRun	#102	#79
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#91
Run ExplRExp	#99	#73
PPAExp	#72	#86
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#75
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#36
TackleTak	-	#92

Arkansas State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	KENN Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#122
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#8
PPAExp	#90	#86
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#59
F7 HavocF7	#48	#93
DB HavocDB	#115	#119

Kennesaw State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	KENN Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#82
SuccessSuc	#133	#124
ExplosiveExp	#78	#91
PPAPPA	#134	#126
PowerPwr	#85	#118
SP+SP+	#72	#111
Pts POPPO	#103	#127
HavocHav	#84	#80

Kennesaw State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	KENN Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#64	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	#134	#131
Run ExplRExp	#51	#85
PPAExp	#130	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#134	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#91
TackleTak	-	#34

Kennesaw State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 44%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	KENN Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#92
Pass SuccessPSuc	#129	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#103
PPAExp	#133	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#55
F7 HavocF7	#115	#82
DB HavocDB	#24	#74

Program Comparison
KENN 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fifth Third Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Arkansas State 4.5 (57.5)
Kennesaw State won vs Arkansas State this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
Kennesaw State beat Arkansas State last year (28-21)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	332	500	66%	3364	19	11	6.7
Josh Flowers	2	6	33%	13	1	1	2.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Spencer	108	559	3	5.2	43
Kenyon Clay (Tr)	139	523	3	3.8	30
Jaylen Raynor	154	428	7	2.8	42
Josh Flowers	9	60	0	6.7	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	73	1029	4	14.1	71
Chauncy Cobb	73	797	1	10.9	51
Hunter Summers	44	505	4	11.5	43
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)	32	294	2	9.2	28

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)	92	3	1	0	0
Kyle Taylor	84	1	0	1	1
AG McGhee (Tr)	83	3	0	1	5
Brandon Barnes	68	3	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Demarcus Hendricks	53	14	9	7	1
Ethan Hassler	55	13	8	7	1
Cody Sigler (Tr)	34	7	5	6	6
Bryan Whitehead II	21	9	4	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Sigler (Tr)	34	7	5	6	6
AG McGhee (Tr)	83	3	0	1	5
Avante Dickerson (Tr)	54	3	0	0	4

KENN's OC Mitch Militello (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Amari Odom	189	291	65%	2594	19	8	8.9
Dexter Williams II (Tr)	67	125	54%	787	6	3	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Coleman Bennett (Tr)	157	764	4	4.9	30
Chase Belcher (Tr)	107	566	2	5.3	46
Amari Odom	120	347	7	2.9	24
Alexander Diggs	72	281	2	3.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gabriel Benyard	60	949	9	15.8	54
Christian Moss	44	682	2	15.5	70
Coleman Bennett (Tr)	27	314	3	11.6	76
Clayton Coppock	28	311	5	11.1	55

View Kennesaw State's Full Roster

KENN's DC Marc Mattioli (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Baron Hopson	139	10	1	2	6
Tywon Christopher	81	5	2	1	2
Isaac Paul	57	0	0	0	2
Milon Jones	53	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Hill	22	12	9	6	0
Tylon Dunlap	40	11	5	1	1
Donovan Westmoreland	35	6	4	1	1
Kody Jones (Tr)	29	7	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Offord (Tr)	47	7	0	0	12
JeRico Washington Jr.	43	2	1	0	10
Baron Hopson	139	10	1	2	6