Arkansas State at Georgia Southern - 2021 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Georgia Southern Eagles

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Georgia Southern -1.5 (66.5)
Georgia Southern 59 - Arkansas State: 33 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 39 (22 - 39 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 3rd straight Road Game
GASO 2nd straight Home Game
GASO is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -4 (SP+ GASO -3)
Projected Score: ARST: 27 - GASO: 32 (59)
GASO Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 561 miles, 1 hrs behind

Eagles (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (28 - 20)
Avg Score : 20 - 31 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
GASO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Georgia Southern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia Southern vs Gardner-Webb	-27.5	48.0	W 30 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia Southern at Florida Atlantic	+6.5	48.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia Southern at Arkansas	+23.0	53.5	L 10 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/25	Georgia Southern vs Louisiana	+14.5	54.5	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State	-1.5	66.5	W 59 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Georgia Southern at Troy	+5.5	51.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 10/14	Georgia Southern at South Alabama	+2.5	49.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	+6.0	55.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/6	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	+16.0	56.5	L 8 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	Georgia Southern at Texas State	+2.5	52.0	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia Southern vs BYU	+20.0	57.0	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Georgia Southern at App State	+24.5	55.0	L 3 - 27	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	37%	25.3	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	38.6	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2
GASO	.11	36%	20.3	37%	2.84	193	33%	147	2.81	.3	44%	31.4	43%	46%	3.72	45.3	1.4	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.3	21.7	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17
GASO Defense	12	31.4	28.2	44.1%	3.72	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	43%	46%	19%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	38.6	39.2	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35
GASO Offense	12	20.3	24.7	35.6%	2.81	1.4	18	340	193	147	4.3	62%	37%	37%	33%	23%	.11

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6
Georgia Southern	12	30:44	17.9	35%	44%	5.7	45.3	1.4	0.7	6.6	2.2	2	28.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79
GASO Defense	12	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.27	72%	13%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3
GASO Offense	12	62%	37%	44.7	193.3	4.3	22	.18	2.84	78%	15%	1.3

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2
GASO Defense	12	53%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.44	1.7	31%	31%	.41	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3
GASO Offense	12	37%	33%	11.8	22.9	147.1	6.4	12.5	5	12	.07	1.4	35%	25%	.24	9%	2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Georgia Southern: -5.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -17.9 Georgia Southern: -15.3

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -5.15 NR
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Georgia Southern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia Southern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.3 #118
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4 #122
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia Southern 32
Arkansas State 27

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia Southern 33
Arkansas State 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Georgia Southern 31
Arkansas State 27

Total Points: 58

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 31.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

Georgia Southern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Arkansas State	34	Georgia Southern	24	Georgia Southern -1.5	Arkansas State	59.5	Under
2021	10/02	Georgia Southern	59	Arkansas State	33	Georgia Southern -1.5	Georgia Southern	66.5	Over
2019	11/23	Arkansas State	38	Georgia Southern	33	Arkansas State -1	Arkansas State	52.5	Over
2018	09/29	Georgia Southern	28	Arkansas State	21	Arkansas State -3	Georgia Southern	53.5	Under
2017	10/04	Georgia Southern	25	Arkansas State	43	Arkansas State -9	Arkansas State	54.5	Over
2016	10/05	Arkansas State	27	Georgia Southern	26	Georgia Southern -5.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia Southern	2	2	3 Overs
Arkansas State	4	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	5 - 1	2 - 0	3 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 5	1 - 5	1 - 3	0 - 2

(#) ARST at (#) GASO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	GASO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#120	#118
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#129
OffenseOff	#112	#125
DefenseDef	#129	#127
Spec TeamsST	#41	#103
TalentTal	#82	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Georgia Southern Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GASO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#127
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#111
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#110	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#124

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Georgia Southern on Offense


CategoryCat	GASO Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#122	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia Southern Run Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#108	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

Georgia Southern Pass Game


CategoryCat	GASO Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#84	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 85°

Rematch from Week 5
Georgia Southern -1.5 (66.5)
Georgia Southern won vs Arkansas State this year (59-33)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

GASO's OC Doug Ruse (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Scot Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD