Stony Brook at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Stony Brook logo   Stony Brook Seawolves at Arkansas State Red Wolves  Arkansas State logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -24 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 31 - Stony Brook: 7

 
Seawolves (0 - 1) (0 - 0 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 42 (0 - 42 on Road)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ARST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -5  (SP+ ARST -8)
ARST Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Stony Brook's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Stony Brook at Arkansas State+24.047.5L 7 - 31UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stony Brook's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STON0%00%000%000%420%0%0000
ARST.136%25.235%2.368838%2273.48.2444%27.445%43%4.5854.50.81.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STON0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STON Offense1000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ARST Defense1227.427.244.2%4.581.1 - - - - - 55%44%45%43%18%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STON Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ARST Offense1225.22936.1%3.480.817315882272.842%57%35%38%21%.1

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stony Brook10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arkansas State1230:1417.229%61%5.754.50.81.16.41.9229
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STON Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ARST Defense1255%45% - - - - .16376%12%0.97
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STON Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ARST Offense1242%35%31.888.22.816-.032.3675%16%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STON Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ARST Defense1244%43% - - - - - - 6.41.831%31%.316%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STON Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ARST Offense1257%38%20.633226.86.911165.211.638%25%.196%2.1

Stony Brook's Power Ratings
Stony Brook's Power Rating: NR
Stony Brook's Offense Rating: NR
Stony Brook's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating: 185.50  #141
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Stony Brook's 2023 Expected Record: -
Stony Brook's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Stony Brook's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Stony Brook's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average CAA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Stony Brook:    Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stony Brook:    Arkansas State: -7.5




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865  #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66  #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64  #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40  #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Stony Brook Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Stony Brook's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 1
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 35
Stony Brook 14

Projected Total Points: 49
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/16Arkansas State31Stony Brook7Arkansas State -24Push47.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State100 Overs
Stony Brook001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#) STON at (#100) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTONARST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #100
SP+SP+NR #92
Perf GradeGradeNR #58
OffenseOffNR #54
DefenseDefNR #60
Spec TeamsSTNR #113
TalentTal #141 #92
Blue ChipsBC%NR #75
Stony Brook on Offense
CategoryCat
STON OffARST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #60
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNR #95
SP+SP+NR #108
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Stony Brook Run Game
CategoryCat
STON OffARST Def
Run GameRunNR #74
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #31
Stony Brook Pass Game
CategoryCat
STON OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNR #16
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #118
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Arkansas State on Offense
CategoryCatARST OffSTON Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #54NR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #85NR
SP+SP+ #72NR
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
ARST OffSTON Def
Run GameRun #72NR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
CategoryCatARST OffSTON Def
Pass GamePass #93NR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #92NR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

STON 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Arkansas State -24.0 (47.5)
Arkansas State won vs Stony Brook this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Stony Brook in 2023 (31-7)

  
STON's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Casey Case122352%110004.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Roland Dempster2281037144.554
Jadon Turner186103.417
Dez Williams (Tr)1707.07
Shakhi Carson (Tr)6601.02
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Freeman41774818.965
Dez Williams (Tr)49529510.836
Cole Bunicci27315111.748
Roland Dempster3529208.335

View Stony Brook's Full Roster

STON's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rushawn Lawrence203100
Franco Milano51000
Anthony Ferrelli40000
Chayce Chalmers20021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rushawn Lawrence203100
Franco Milano51000
Anthony Ferrelli40000
Chayce Chalmers20021
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chayce Chalmers20021
Rushawn Lawrence203100
Franco Milano51000

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005