Arkansas State at South Alabama - 2021 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (5:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -9.5 (67.0)
South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State: 13 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ USA -11)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - USA: 26 (52)
USA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 335 miles

Jaguars (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

South Alabama's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-2.0	56.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/11	South Alabama at Bowling Green	-14.5	48.0	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/18	South Alabama vs Alcorn State	-21.5	44.5	W 28 - 21	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	South Alabama vs Louisiana	+12.0	52.5	L 18 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/9	South Alabama at Texas State	-4.0	52.5	L 31 - 33	O	N
Thu 10/14	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	49.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/23	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-13.5	51.5	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/30	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-9.5	67.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	South Alabama at Troy	+3.5	47.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/13	South Alabama at App State	+21.5	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/20	South Alabama at Tennessee	+28.5	61.5	L 14 - 60	O	N
Fri 11/26	South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina	+14.5	55.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.25	43%	25.2	39%	2.82	125	46%	364	3.99	.22	42%	27.4	37%	47%	3.88	57.4	1.5	1.1
USA	.11	38%	26.5	39%	2.49	113	38%	247	2.75	.22	47%	30.4	44%	50%	3.55	34.9	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	11	25.2	21	42.8%	3.99	1.5	24	490	125	364	3.6	42%	57%	39%	46%	16%	.25
USA Defense	11	30.4	28.8	46.5%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	44%	50%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	11	27.4	21.8	42.2%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	47%	17%	.22
USA Offense	11	26.5	27.8	38.3%	2.75	1.4	20	360	113	247	3	50%	50%	39%	38%	20%	.11

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	11	28:38	24.5	40%	50%	6.4	57.4	1.5	1.1	6.9	1.8	1	25.9
South Alabama	11	30:24	19.8	40%	47%	3.8	34.9	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.1	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	11	42%	39%	34.9	125.2	3.6	7	.01	2.82	64%	9%	0.9
USA Defense	11	54%	44%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.89	56%	8%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.44	64%	11%	1.06
USA Offense	11	50%	39%	38.1	112.5	3	7	-.02	2.49	75%	14%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	11	57%	46%	25.1	42.2	364.4	8.6	14.5	39	9	.43	1.8	34%	36%	.4	7%	2
USA Defense	11	46%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.38	1.6	28%	34%	.3	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	11	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.7	31%	34%	.4	5%	2.2
USA Offense	11	50%	38%	19.8	31.8	247.1	7.8	12.5	18	6	.25	1.9	37%	28%	.33	6%	2.3

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: South Alabama: -1.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -17.9 South Alabama: -7.2

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -1.1 NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
South Alabama's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #99
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #107
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 26
South Alabama 26

Projected Total Points: 52

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	15	South Alabama -8.5	Arkansas State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	6	5	3 Overs
Arkansas State	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#) ARST at (#) USA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	USA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#120	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#100
OffenseOff	#112	#106
DefenseDef	#129	#65
Spec TeamsST	#41	#110
TalentTal	#82	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

South Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#65
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#110	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#114

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#106	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#102	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
South Alabama -9.5 (67.0)
South Alabama won vs Arkansas State this year (31-13)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (15-14)
Arkansas State beat South Alabama in 2024 (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USA's OC Major Applewhite (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD