Arkansas State at Arkansas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -23.5 (62.0) (-1800)  Open: -21.5 | 64.5
Arkansas 56 - Arkansas State: 14

 
Red Wolves (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
ARK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas -31.5   (SP+ ARK -24)

Projected Score: ARST: 15 - ARK: 47 (62)
ARK Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 197 miles
Razorbacks (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 48 - 21 (52 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 8) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-6.056.5
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe-2.5
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+11.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+12.5
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern-5
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+11
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+8
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+3
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.063.5
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+0
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+9
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+4.5
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn+6
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-4
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+10
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+11
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+6

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#108 (.09)41% (87)2445% (60)2.62 (101)15338% (103)2333.65 (88)#130 (.42)52% (132)34.752% (125)52% (128)4.61 (110)721.31.3
ARK#5 (.55)56% (12)47.758% (12)3.98 (3)24556% (13)3245.55 (11)#108 (.22)49% (122)20.757% (133)42% (82)3.93 (86)5411.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense3242441.5%3.651.3233861532333.947%53%45%38%18%.09
ARK Defense320.7748.7%3.931.3 - - - - - 46%54%57%42%19%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense334.734.752%4.611.3 - - - - - 51%48%52%52%14%.42
ARK Offense347.75256.5%5.551295692453246.947%52%58%56%11%.55

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State334:1022.748%33%7.7721.31.341.7130.9
Arkansas329:572972%0%65411.36.72.3027.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense347% (91)45% (60)39.3153.33.94 (79).04 (98)2.62 (101)60% (103)12% (112)0.96 (67)
ARK Defense346% (40)57% (133) - - - - .16 (104)2.78 (69)76% (96)11% (51)0.71 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense351% (87)52% (125) - - - - .31 (128)3.23 (113)100% (127)7% (115)1.06 (92)
ARK Offense347% (89)58% (12)35.3245.36.98 (26).51 (3)3.98 (3)100% (1)5% (10)1.24 (24)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense353% (45)38% (103)22.333.72336.910.44 (72)3 (92).14 (105)1.6 (42)28% (47)30% (80).4 (53)6% (96)2.3 (20)
ARK Defense354% (99)42% (82) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (91)1.6 (91)27% (123)37% (118).46 (109)8% (26)1.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense348% (50)52% (128) - - - - - - 3 (28).58 (129)1.7 (105)27% (122)36% (117).58 (120)7% (48)2.2 (103)
ARK Offense352% (49)56% (13)22.733.33249.714.312 (3)2 (60).63 (13)1.7 (30)28% (48)52% (2).84 (6)6% (96)2.2 (47)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -20.80   Arkansas: 15.975

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.2   Arkansas: 13.9




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 15.975 #34
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 47
Arkansas State 15


Total Points: 62

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 47.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Arkansas56Arkansas State14ArkansasArkansas -23.5Arkansas62.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas111 Overs
Arkansas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#131) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Arkansas State has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatARKARST
OverallOver#17#84
OffenseOff#15#81
DefenseDef#39#94
Special TeamsST#34#70
PassingPass#20#63
RushingRush#6#81
Run BlockRBLK#52#92
Pass BlockPBLK#14#38
Route RunningWR Rt#38#78
TacklingTkl#16#47
Run DefenseR Def#61#90
Pass Rush DefPRush#16#110
Coverage DefCov#36#95

Rematch from Week 2
Arkansas -23.5 (62.0)
Arkansas won vs Arkansas State this year (56-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | ARK
Depth Chart: ARST | ARK
Rosters: ARST | ARK
(#34) Arkansas Info
Power Rating: 15.975 #34
Offense Rating: 28.44 #9
Defense Rating: 10.39 #84
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.9 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.55 PPO
Great Run Success 58%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 57%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Arkansas has won 1 straight
Arkansas has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Arkansas Notes
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's

Arkansas Highlights
Arkansas has Really Good Running Game (#8)
Arkansas offense is efficent (#12)
Arkansas offense is explosive (#15)
Arkansas has a top Offensive Line (#3)
Arkansas offense is good in red zone (#11)
Arkansas offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)

Arkansas Secondary is very good (#26)

Arkansas Deficiencies
Arkansas has a bad defense (#122)


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor669867%692437.1
Josh Flowers1333%7002.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Raynor3513813.921
Kenyon Clay (Tr)4012013.013
Devin Spencer1810415.843
Kameron Thomas83804.823
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chauncy Cobb16216013.545
Corey Rucker6105117.550
Hunter Summers696016.039
Jaylen Bonelli (Tr)895111.934

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Nate Dreiling
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nigel Nelson210001
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)181100
Brandon Barnes161000
AG McGhee (Tr)161002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hassler72230
Cody Sigler (Tr)52201
Drew Collins21100
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)181100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trenton Alan Yowe90012
AG McGhee (Tr)161002
Nigel Nelson210001

Arkansas's OC Bobby Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green639269%8661129.4
KJ Jackson5771%1061015.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Taylen Green3230729.664
Michael Washington3126038.453
Braylen Russell2510324.18
Rodney Hill73705.318
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)18266314.830
Jalen Brown (Tr)10114211.429
CJ Brown9111212.326
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)7107215.337

View Arkansas's Full Roster
Arkansas's DC Travis Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.232120
Stephen Dix Jr.231000
Julian Neal (Tr)211004
Caleb Wooden (Tr)142000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.93330
Phillip Lee (Tr)123240
Miguel Mitchell111100
Shakur Smalls (Tr)51101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Neal (Tr)211004
Kani Walker (Tr)131004
Keshawn Davila00001