Arkansas State vs Arkansas Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
War Memorial Stadium - Little Rock, AR

Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)

ARK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas -20.5 (SP+ ARK -17)
Projected Score: ARST: 18 - ARK: 38 (57)
ARK Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 197 miles

Razorbacks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (24 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-12.5
Sat 9/6	Arkansas State vs Arkansas	+23
Sat 9/13	Arkansas State vs Iowa State	+19.5
Sat 9/20	Arkansas State at Kennesaw State	-7
Sat 9/27	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-1.5
Sat 10/4	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+4
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+11
Sat 10/25	Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern	+5
Sat 11/1	Arkansas State at Troy	+9
Sat 11/8	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	-0
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+2
Sat 11/29	Arkansas State at App State	-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Arkansas vs Alabama A&M	-33
Sat 9/6	Arkansas vs Arkansas State	-23
Sat 9/13	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+11.5
Sat 9/20	Arkansas at Memphis	-5
Sat 9/27	Arkansas vs Notre Dame	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arkansas at Tennessee	+10.5
Sat 10/18	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+10
Sat 10/25	Arkansas vs Auburn	+5
Sat 11/1	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-10.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arkansas at LSU	+18.5
Sat 11/22	Arkansas at Texas	+21.5
Sat 11/29	Arkansas vs Missouri	+1

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.8	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	32.2	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)	30.9	52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)	25	39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.8	20.7	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17
ARK Defense	13	25	28.7	41.5%	3.31	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	44%	14%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	32.2	37.3	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31
ARK Offense	13	30.9	23.7	48.2%	3.95	1.7	23	416	168	248	4.9	51%	48%	52%	44%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6
Arkansas	13	28:07	22.6	43%	59%	6.4	56.3	1.7	1	4.4	1.9	0	27.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)
ARK Defense	13	50% (64)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (11)	2.84 (42)	79% (104)	8% (123)	0.82 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)
ARK Offense	13	51% (64)	52% (5)	34.4	167.9	4.9	32 (14)	.21 (29)	3.23 (38)	82% (13)	12% (109)	0.97 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)
ARK Defense	13	50% (70)	44% (100)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.28 (92)	1.5 (43)	33% (48)	27% (23)	.2 (25)	7% (45)	1.9 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)
ARK Offense	13	48% (71)	44% (41)	18.8	30.2	248.4	8.2	13.2	14 (108)	9 (48)	.3 (46)	1.6 (42)	32% (72)	37% (17)	.43 (25)	7% (106)	2.2 (25)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -12.25 Arkansas: 9.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Arkansas: 7.0

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 9.42 #29
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 21.75 #28
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 9.91 #37
2025 Talent Rating: 806.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0 #38
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #40

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas 38
Arkansas State 18

Projected Total Points: 57

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	0	0	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#99) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122
Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Arkansas State Notes
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 2 portal adds
(3/23) OL 4/5 back. OT Smith a turnstile, lots of depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
(3/23) Def added 9 portals, fired most staff LY
(3/23) New DC Dreiling was Utah St Int HC LY
(3/23) HC Jones improved wins each year. Bowl LY

Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Arkansas

Power #99

#29

Off #62

#28

Def #130

#37

Talent #75

#47

SP+ #100

#38

SP+ Off #68

#37

SP+ Def #122

#40

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | ARK
Depth Chart: ARST | ARK
Rosters: ARST | ARK

(#29) Arkansas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.42 #29
Offense Rating: 21.75 #28
Defense Rating: 9.91 #37
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.0 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #40
Talent Rating: 806.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.95 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Good Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 42%
Great in Scoring Position 3.31 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Arkansas Notes
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal
(5/23) Def front 7 biggest issue, DL 5 portal adds
(5/18) WR J Anthony a track star, hasn't played much
(5/15) WR top 5 are portals, 7 total. Blake (Char) good
(5/12) WR core bolted due to T Green? DBs a big issue
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp, 63% returning, 37% portals
(3/18) QB Green back, electric but inconsistent LY
(3/18) RBs rebuild. Good Run game LY needs RB1
(3/18) Def lacked ballers, pressure, TO's
(3/18) HC Pittman hotseat again. Petrino stab coming?

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Ethan Crawford (Tr)	50	120	42%	849	0	7	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Kenyon Clay (Tr)	84	387	7	4.6	70
Ethan Crawford (Tr)	97	209	3	2.2	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Ja'Quez Cross	35	228	1	6.5	20
Kenyon Clay (Tr)	21	225	1	10.7	37
Nazeviah Burris (Tr)	22	209	1	9.5	22

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Nate Dreiling

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
AG McGhee (Tr)	54	1	0	0	0
Christopher Boti	36	1	1	1	1
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)	26	2	1	3	1
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15	0
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)	26	2	1	3	1
Christopher Boti	36	1	1	1	1
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Avante Dickerson (Tr)	19	2	0	3
James Reed III	7	1	0	2
Marcus Bradley	7	1	1	1

Arkansas's OC Bobby Petrino

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taylen Green	230	381	60%	3153	15	9	8.3
KJ Jackson	4	4	100%	59	0	0	14.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Michael Washington	158	713	8	4.5	47
Taylen Green	156	602	8	3.9	41
Braylen Russell	67	354	3	5.3	75
Rodney Hill	28	184	2	6.6	70

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	32	795	9	24.8	75
Kameran Shanks	62	656	6	10.6	67
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Ismael Cisse (Tr)	26	241	2	9.3	25

View Arkansas's Full Roster

Arkansas's DC Travis Williams

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavian Sorey Jr.	99	10	2	3	1
Stephen Dix Jr.	70	3	2	3	1
Quentavius Scandrett (Tr)	54	0	0	1	2
Larry Worth	53	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phillip Lee (Tr)	30	11	5	7	1
Xavian Sorey Jr.	99	10	2	3	1
Stephen Dix Jr.	70	3	2	3	1
Ken Talley (Tr)	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kani Walker (Tr)	24	2	0	6
Jordan Young (Tr)	35	1	0	5
Julian Neal (Tr)	32	4	1	4