Arkansas State at Arkansas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo   Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Arkansas Razorbacks  Arkansas logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (5:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -23.5 (62.0) (-1800)  Open: -21.5 | 64.5
Arkansas 56 - Arkansas State: 14

 
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
ARK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas -16.5  (SP+ ARK -14)

Projected Score: ARST: 22 - ARK: 38 (60)
ARK Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 121 miles
Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 8) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.557.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.555.5L 24 - 33ON
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-5.566.5L 35 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+4.058.5L 22 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+10.557.5L 37 - 52ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+4.554.5L 17 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)25.243% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)27.451% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)32.952% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)33.839% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.22141%3.961.3203571482104.348%52%43%39%16%.17
ARK Defense1333.83541.5%3.311 - - - - - 50%50%39%44%14%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1327.421.848%4.621.4 - - - - - 52%48%51%44%15%.31
ARK Offense1332.930.548.2%3.951.7234161682484.951%48%52%44%19%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:5620.340%75%5.147.81.31.44.51.4127.6
Arkansas1328:0722.643%59%6.456.31.714.41.9027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1348% (83)43% (84)34.8147.84.316 (90).12 (72)3.01 (77)73% (71)9% (48)0.9 (99)
ARK Defense1350% (64)39% (32) - - - - -.01 (11)2.84 (42)79% (104)8% (123)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (84)51% (131) - - - - .28 (131)3.45 (127)73% (65)9% (82)1.02 (85)
ARK Offense1351% (64)52% (5)34.4167.94.932 (14).21 (29)3.23 (38)82% (13)12% (109)0.97 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1352% (49)39% (96)19.631.6209.66.610.717 (79)9 (48).21 (90)1.5 (88)31% (67)32% (55).39 (42)8% (115)2 (97)
ARK Defense1350% (70)44% (100) - - - - - - 8 (93).28 (92)1.5 (43)33% (48)27% (23).2 (25)7% (45)1.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1348% (52)44% (110) - - - - - - 14 (23).35 (115)1.7 (103)29% (106)32% (89).51 (125)6% (74)2.3 (122)
ARK Offense1348% (71)44% (41)18.830.2248.48.213.214 (108)9 (48).3 (46)1.6 (42)32% (72)37% (17).43 (25)7% (106)2.2 (25)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -10.41  #103
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 10.99  #81
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 21.40  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.41   Arkansas: 7.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -8.8   Arkansas: 5.1




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 7.105  #43
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.32  #14
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 15.21  #81
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1  #53
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 38
Arkansas State 22


Projected Total Points: 60
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Arkansas56Arkansas State14Arkansas -23.5Arkansas62.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas111 Overs
Arkansas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#103) ARST at (#43) ARK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARSTARK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #103 #43
SP+SP+ #100 #53
Perf GradeGrade #79 #77
OffenseOff #76 #42
DefenseDef #82 #112
Spec TeamsST #39 #116
TalentTal #75 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #33
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Arkansas Notes
(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffARK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #76 #112
SuccessSuc #91 #66
ExplosiveExp #102 #29
PPAPPA #81 #45
PowerPwr #81 #81
SP+SP+ #90 #99
Pts POPPO #63 #22
HavocHav #80 #101
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffARK Def
Run GameRun #102 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #84 #32
Run ExplRExp #99 #8
PPAExp #72 #11
Run BlockR Blk #65 -
OL YdsOLY #77 #42
Stuff RateStuff #56 #112
TackleTak -  #19
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #72 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #100
Pass ExplPExl #88 #43
PPAExp #90 #92
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #69
F7 HavocF7 #48 #123
DB HavocDB #115 #45
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARK OffARST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #42 #82
SuccessSuc #13 #124
ExplosiveExp #80 #91
PPAPPA #27 #126
PowerPwr #14 #118
SP+SP+ #16 #111
Pts POPPO #64 #127
HavocHav #114 #80
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffARST Def
Run GameRun #2 #80
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #131
Run ExplRExp #67 #85
PPAExp #29 #131
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #127
Stuff RateStuff #83 #91
TackleTak -  #34
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARK OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #67 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #110
Pass ExplPExl #42 #103
PPAExp #46 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #55
F7 HavocF7 #109 #82
DB HavocDB #106 #74
Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in War Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Arkansas -23.5 (62.0)
Arkansas won vs Arkansas State this year (56-14)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Arkansas State last year (56-14)

  
ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5513871
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004

ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green19832661%271419118.3
KJ Jackson335461%441308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington168106886.457
Taylen Green13877985.664
Braylen Russell5528655.223
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)65409.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)57760513.336
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)41592314.458
Rohan Jones (Tr)19519427.362
CJ Brown28319311.426

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Stephen Dix Jr.794100
Larry Worth641001
Caleb Wooden (Tr)593013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.4316860
Phillip Lee (Tr)316440
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Bradley Shaw505211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)5231011
Julian Neal (Tr)5520010
Jordan Young (Tr)280016