Missouri State at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Missouri State logo Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Thursday, December 18th 2025 (9:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -1.5 (55.5) (-125)  Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 34 - Missouri State: 28  (Xbox Bowl)

 
Bears (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Beard (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (23 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Arkansas State -1  (SP+ MOST -1)

Projected Score: MOST: 27 - ARST: 28 (55)
ARST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
MOST Travel: 172 miles
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Missouri State at USC+34.559.5L 13 - 73ON
Sat 9/6 Missouri State at Marshall+7.053.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Missouri State vs SMU+29.560.5L 10 - 28UY
Sat 9/20 Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.055.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.559.5L 22 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.552.5W 22 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.551.5W 24 - 17UY
Wed 10/29 Missouri State vs Florida International-3.050.0W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Missouri State at Liberty+7.551.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Missouri State vs UTEP-6.547.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.554.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 11/29 Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.545.0L 30 - 42ON
Thu 12/18 Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri State's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST#67 (.18)39% (105)25.637% (124)2.49 (131)11442% (60)2803.69 (69)#113 (.23)43% (84)28.843% (72)43% (90)3.89 (92)66.51.41.2
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MOST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Offense1325.622.539.3%3.691.4203931142803.642%56%37%42%24%.18
ARST Defense1327.427.243.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MOST Defense1328.831.342.7%3.891.2 - - - - - 48%50%43%43%15%.23
ARST Offense1325.22942%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri State1331:2020.536%57%7.666.51.41.24.11.8029.5
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Offense1342% (124)37% (124)31.7113.73.612 (122).03 (113)2.49 (131)61% (126)16% (135)1.07 (29)
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MOST Defense1348% (47)43% (72) - - - - .16 (102)2.76 (48)83% (129)8% (119)1.03 (102)
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Offense1356% (17)42% (60)21.333.5279.78.413.130 (75)11 (88).33 (40)1.8 (8)36% (128)30% (77).26 (85)8% (130)2.2 (13)
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MOST Defense1350% (86)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).33 (108)1.6 (71)30% (90)27% (33).33 (87)7% (20)2.3 (130)
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)

Missouri State's Power Ratings
Missouri State's Power Rating: -12.54  #121
Missouri State's Offense Rating: 5.95  #87
Missouri State's Defense Rating: 18.49  #127
2025 Talent Rating: 310.00  #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #38
Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.6  #99
Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -12.54   Arkansas State: -9.81

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri State: -8.6   Arkansas State: -9.8




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -9.81  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.5
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 28
Missouri State 27


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri State 28
Arkansas State 28

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 29
Missouri State 26

Total Points: 55
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/18Arkansas State34Missouri State28Arkansas State -1.5Arkansas State55.5Over
201509/19Arkansas State70Missouri State7Arkansas State -22Arkansas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State221 Overs
Missouri State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

Missouri State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Xbox Bowl Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.555.5L 28 - 34
Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Xbox Bowl Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28
2024Ventures Bowl Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.554.5W 38 - 31
2023Camellia Bowl Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21
2019Camellia Bowl Arkansas State vs Florida International+1.560.0W 34 - 26
  
(#121) MOST at (#108) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMOSTARST
Power RatePwr #121 #108
SP+SP+ #99 #105
Perf GradeGrade #92 #93
OffenseOff #65 #86
DefenseDef #100 #94
Spec TeamsST #133 #62
TalentTal #131 #75
Blue ChipsBC% #38 #79
Missouri State Notes
(12/18) Hired Casey Woods (SMU OC) as new HC
(11/23) Off Success #'s awful but leaders in Expl? Odd
(10/29) RB Shomari Lawrence can scoot. Decent RB
(10/22) QB Jacob Clark is back from inj vs Delaware (10/22)
(10/22) OL is the worst in CFB in Sacks/TFL allowed (week 9)
(10/8) QB Bailey is tiny, 6' 170 lbs. Young but has some skills
(10/1) QB2 is true Fr Deuce Bailey w/ Clark out, mobile
(9/23) QB Jacob Clark has been good, Run Off bad
(9/23) Off all or nothing, Success awful, Expl great
(4/7) Bears use WR1 a ton, BlackStrain (GT) that guy
(4/7) RB Lawrence (FIU) starts, watch Fr King Davis
(3/26) QB Clark back, 3K yds, 26 TD. Looks good
Missouri State Injury Report
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Missouri State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #94
SuccessSuc #105 #90
ExplosiveExp #1 #95
PPAPPA #67 #89
PowerPwr #87 #102
SP+SP+ #80 #104
Pts POPPO #69 #93
HavocHav #136 #70
Missouri State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffARST Def
Run GameRun #107 #79
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #81
Run ExplRExp #29 #92
PPAExp #113 #80
Run BlockR Blk #126 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #45
Stuff RateStuff #135 #64
TackleTak -  #48
Missouri State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
MOST OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #28 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #93
Pass ExplPExl #8 #89
PPAExp #40 #97
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #32 #82
F7 HavocF7 #135 #39
DB HavocDB #130 #109
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffMOST Def
Perf GradePerf #86 #100
SuccessSuc #71 #84
ExplosiveExp #124 #102
PPAPPA #112 #113
PowerPwr #102 #127
SP+SP+ #97 #108
Pts POPPO #110 #92
HavocHav #111 #82
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffMOST Def
Run GameRun #115 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #102 #72
Run ExplRExp #125 #102
PPAExp #125 #102
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118 #48
Stuff RateStuff #111 #61
TackleTak -  #105
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffMOST Def
Pass GamePass #78 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #90
Pass ExplPExl #122 #71
PPAExp #86 #108
Pass Block/RushP Blk #13 #66
F7 HavocF7 #89 #119
DB HavocDB #125 #20
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

MOST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Center At The Star
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State -1.5 (55.5)
Arkansas State won vs Missouri State this year (34-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MOST's OC Nick Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacob Clark24737666%324428118.6
Deuce Bailey234749%335207.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Shomari Lawrence (Tr)199102175.170
Ramone Green Jr.5227815.345
Deuce Bailey278113.020
Ronnel Johnson138038.038
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Alred Luke43640514.959
Jmariyae Robinson44632714.452
Tristian Gardner30465615.542
Ronnel Johnson35463213.235

View Missouri State's Full Roster

MOST's DC L.D. Scott (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kanye Young776154
Jared Lloyd764222
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Wesolak (Tr)306452
Caleb Dietlin193362
Mitchell Toney235362
Cooper Roy114220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Dunbar (Tr)2110011
Maguire Neal631005
Thomas Anderson602105

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004