Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Coastal Carolina -8.5 (59.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Coastal Carolina 27 - Arkansas State: 17 (Sun Belt)

Chanticleers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tim Beck* (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 22 - 33 (24 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#50)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CCU 3rd straight Road Game
ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: Coastal Carolina -2.5 (SP+ CCU -4.5)
Projected Score: CCU: 30 - ARST: 28 (58)
CCU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
CCU Travel: 676 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CCU Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Coastal Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Coastal Carolina at UCLA	+15.5	66.5	L 13 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Coastal Carolina vs Jacksonville State	-13.5	61.0	W 30 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Coastal Carolina vs Duquesne	-35.0	55.5	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Thu 9/21	Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State	-4.5	62.5	L 17 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/30	Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern	+6.0	67.5	L 28 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	Coastal Carolina at App State	+4.5	59.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State	-8.5	59.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Coastal Carolina vs Marshall	+3.5	47.0	W 34 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion	-1.0	51.0	W 28 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Coastal Carolina vs Texas State	+2.5	55.5	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Coastal Carolina at Army	-1.5	40.5	L 21 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/25	Coastal Carolina vs James Madison	+9.5	50.5	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 12/23	Coastal Carolina vs San José State	+7.5	48.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Coastal Carolina's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CCU	.3	47%	22.2	45%	3.05	159	49%	246	3.78	.32	45%	33.1	43%	48%	4.1	56.8	1.5	2.2
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CCU Offense	13	22.2	24	46.9%	3.78	1.5	22	405	159	246	4	54%	46%	45%	49%	14%	.3
ARST Defense	12	27.4	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CCU Defense	13	33.1	41.3	45.1%	4.1	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	43%	48%	18%	.32
ARST Offense	12	25.2	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Coastal Carolina	13	32:23	21.8	43%	57%	6.2	56.8	1.5	2.2	6.1	2.6	1	28.1
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CCU Offense	13	54%	45%	39.5	159	4	22	.2	3.05	76%	11%	1
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CCU Defense	13	47%	43%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.06	71%	12%	1.08
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CCU Offense	13	46%	49%	18.2	27.8	246.2	8.9	13.5	27	6	.46	1.7	31%	34%	.4	3%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CCU Defense	13	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.48	1.7	32%	34%	.49	6%	2.1
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Coastal Carolina's Power Ratings
Coastal Carolina's Power Rating: -2.18 #78
Coastal Carolina's Offense Rating: 16.94 #62
Coastal Carolina's Defense Rating: 9.43 #65
2023 Talent Rating: 515.69 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 7.50 - 5.50
Coastal Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #76
Coastal Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #62
Coastal Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #78

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Coastal Carolina: -2.18 Arkansas State: -4.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Coastal Carolina: -2.9 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -4.865 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Coastal Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 33.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.3

Coastal Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Coastal Carolina 30
Arkansas State 28

Projected Total Points: 58

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/21	Arkansas State	17	Coastal Carolina	27	Coastal Carolina -8.5	Coastal Carolina	59.0	Under
2021	10/07	Arkansas State	20	Coastal Carolina	52	Coastal Carolina -20.5	Coastal Carolina	74.5	Under
2020	10/03	Coastal Carolina	52	Arkansas State	23	Arkansas State -3.5	Coastal Carolina	64.5	Over
2019	11/16	Arkansas State	28	Coastal Carolina	27	Arkansas State -14	Coastal Carolina	60.5	Under
2018	11/10	Coastal Carolina	16	Arkansas State	44	Arkansas State -6.5	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	10/14	Arkansas State	51	Coastal Carolina	17	Arkansas State -16.5	Arkansas State	63.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	3	2	2 Overs
Coastal Carolina	3	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	2 - 4	1 - 1	1 - 3
Road Teams	3 - 3	4 - 2	3 - 1	1 - 1

(#78) CCU at (#100) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CCU	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#78	#100
SP+SP+	#76	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#71	#58
OffenseOff	#55	#54
DefenseDef	#83	#60
Spec TeamsST	#89	#113
TalentTal	#85	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Coastal Carolina Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Coastal Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	CCU Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#62	#95
SP+SP+	#62	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Coastal Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	CCU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#76	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Coastal Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	CCU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#25	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#55	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	CCU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#65
SP+SP+	#72	#78
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	CCU Def
Run GameRun	#72	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#29

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	CCU Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#52
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

CCU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Coastal Carolina 8.5 (59.0)
Coastal Carolina won at Arkansas State this year (27-17)

Previous Matchups
Coastal Carolina beat Arkansas State in 2023 (27-17)

CCU's OC Travis Trickett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson McCall	151	224	67%	1919	10	6	8.6
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	76	122	62%	779	7	1	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braydon Bennett	91	407	5	4.5	21
Ethan Vasko (Tr)	63	368	2	5.8	75
CJ Beasley	68	262	2	3.9	21
Reese White	77	252	2	3.3	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Pinckney	72	1027	8	14.3	52
Jared Brown	58	740	4	12.8	59
Jameson Tucker	20	423	3	21.2	51
Kyre Duplessis	16	242	1	15.1	64

View Coastal Carolina's Full Roster

CCU's DC Craig Naivar (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Clayton Isbell	89	5	1	0	5
JT Killen	68	3	0	2	2
Micheal Mason	65	9	6	4	1
Juan Powell (Tr)	55	5	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Micheal Mason	65	9	6	4	1
Will Whitson	42	5	3	5	0
Clinton Anokwuru	23	5	3	0	0
Allen Henry	39	3	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Matthew McDoom	27	0	0	10
Keonte Lusk	37	1	1	6
Juan Powell (Tr)	55	5	1	6

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5