UL Monroe at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -3 (51.5) (-148) Open: -4.0
Arkansas State 28 - UL Monroe: 21 (Sun Belt)

Warhawks (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ULM 2nd straight Road Game
ULM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -13 (SP+ ARST -7)
Projected Score: ULM: 20 - ARST: 33 (53)
ARST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ULM Travel: 243 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UL Monroe vs Jackson State	-4.5	45.5	W 30 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UL Monroe vs UAB	+10.5	55.5	W 32 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	UL Monroe at Texas	+43.5	54.5	L 3 - 51	U	N
Sat 9/28	UL Monroe at Troy	+6.0	46.0	W 13 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/5	UL Monroe vs James Madison	+16.5	48.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/12	UL Monroe vs Southern Miss	-4.5	41.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	UL Monroe at South Alabama	+7.0	45.0	L 17 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/2	UL Monroe at Marshall	+10.5	48.0	L 23 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UL Monroe vs Texas State	+9.5	50.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/16	UL Monroe at Auburn	+24.5	46.0	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	UL Monroe at Arkansas State	+3.0	51.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/30	UL Monroe vs Louisiana	+8.5	50.5	L 23 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	#124 (.06)	36% (128)	16.6	40% (97)	3.18 (56)	146	32% (133)	175	2.61 (130)	#107 (.24)	46% (117)	31.9	44% (78)	49% (132)	4.1 (97)	53.6	1.5	1.6
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	16.6	15.4	35.6%	2.61	1.5	16	321	146	175	4.2	49%	50%	40%	32%	19%	.06
ARST Defense	13	27.4	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	31.9	39	45.6%	4.1	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	49%	15%	.24
ARST Offense	13	25.2	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	27:02	15.8	32%	35%	5.9	53.6	1.5	1.6	6.1	2	2	31
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	49% (78)	40% (97)	34.6	146.3	4.2	7 (131)	.11 (89)	3.18 (56)	74% (63)	12% (100)	0.92 (102)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	53% (107)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.11 (42)	3.06 (58)	75% (78)	11% (55)	0.9 (26)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	50% (59)	32% (133)	14.8	28.8	174.8	6.1	11.9	15 (96)	13 (97)	.03 (131)	1.7 (22)	36% (124)	21% (133)	.12 (124)	7% (111)	2.3 (9)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	46% (25)	49% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.48 (132)	1.7 (97)	32% (68)	39% (130)	.52 (129)	5% (121)	2 (48)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -22.07 #123
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 11.51 #124
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 126.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
UL Monroe's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UL Monroe's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #122
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.9 #126
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.5 #106

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -22.07 Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -16.7 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 33
UL Monroe 20

Projected Total Points: 53

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	UL Monroe	28	Arkansas State	16	UL Monroe -1.5	UL Monroe	55.5	Under
2024	11/23	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State -3	Arkansas State	51.5	Under
2023	10/28	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	34	Louisiana Monroe -1.0	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	10/01	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	28	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	58.5	Over
2021	11/13	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	27	Louisiana Monroe -3	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2020	12/05	Arkansas State	48	UL Monroe	15	Arkansas State -20.5	Arkansas State	71.5	Under
2019	11/02	UL Monroe	41	Arkansas State	48	Arkansas State -1	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2018	11/17	Arkansas State	31	UL Monroe	17	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Under
2017	11/25	UL Monroe	50	Arkansas State	67	Arkansas State -8.5	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2016	10/29	Arkansas State	51	UL Monroe	10	Arkansas State -17	Arkansas State	55.0	Over
2015	11/14	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	59	Arkansas State -12.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/04	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State -10	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/09	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State	42	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	11/08	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	23
2011	10/08	UL Monroe	19	Arkansas State	24
2010	09/18	Arkansas State	34	UL Monroe	20
2009	10/13	UL Monroe	16	Arkansas State	10
2008	10/11	Arkansas State	37	UL Monroe	29
2007	10/06	UL Monroe	30	Arkansas State	13
2006	10/07	Arkansas State	10	UL Monroe	6
2005	10/01	UL Monroe	31	Arkansas State	27
2004	09/25	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	28
2003	10/04	Arkansas State	44	UL Monroe	41
2002	09/21	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	33
2001	11/17	Arkansas State	7	UL Monroe	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	20	12	6 Overs
UL Monroe	5	1	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	7 - 6	7 - 3	0 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	6 - 7	3 - 0	3 - 7

(#123) ULM at (#91) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULM	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#123	#91
SP+SP+	#122	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#118	#102
OffenseOff	#112	#82
DefenseDef	#112	#121
Spec TeamsST	#118	#76
TalentTal	#129	#67
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#97

UL Monroe Notes(12/1) 0-6 finish. Off was awful, Def couldn't hold. TO's
(11/3) Run D bad vs Marshall, 2 straight L's now
(11/3) OL coach is unhinged and under investigation
(10/27) Run D abused (S Al), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc, QBs awful
(10/12) Rushed 246 yds (5.9 ypc), D held SMiss 1-13 3rds
(10/8) Off very slow pace. Limited possessions.
(10/8) Great W over JMU. OG'd but timely Def, pass D
(10/8) Incredible job by Vincent so far. UAB's mistake
(10/4) Off near worst, Def v good so far. Somehow 3-1
(7/30) New QB Booty (OU) leads a roster full of Transfers
(7/30) RB Smith decent, top 6 WR gone, OL has 1/5 back
(7/30) Def was poor LY does have some exp.
UL Monroe Injury Report

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

UL Monroe on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#121
SuccessSuc	#128	#72
ExplosiveExp	#71	#62
PPAPPA	#124	#110
PowerPwr	#124	#124
SP+SP+	#126	#119
Pts POPPO	#130	#92
HavocHav	#110	#103

UL Monroe Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#15	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#97	#80
Run ExplRExp	#102	#78
PPAExp	#89	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#28	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

UL Monroe Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#109	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#133	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#59
PPAExp	#131	#105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#88	#78
F7 HavocF7	#100	#71
DB HavocDB	#111	#111

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#112
SuccessSuc	#73	#117
ExplosiveExp	#35	#61
PPAPPA	#81	#107
PowerPwr	#62	#115
SP+SP+	#87	#106
Pts POPPO	#114	#97
HavocHav	#69	#90

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	#101	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#78
Run ExplRExp	#43	#26
PPAExp	#66	#42
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#58
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#38
TackleTak	-	#91

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#132
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#97
PPAExp	#83	#132
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#100
F7 HavocF7	#58	#55
DB HavocDB	#87	#121

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Arkansas State -3.0 (51.5)
Arkansas State won vs UL Monroe this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
UL Monroe beat Arkansas State last year (28-16)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2024 (28-21)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (34-24)

ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Armenta	102	188	54%	1294	9	10	6.9
General Booty (Tr)	29	54	54%	306	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmad Hardy	237	1352	13	5.7	80
James Jones	79	336	1	4.3	24
Taven Curry (Tr)	32	153	0	4.8	15
Hunter Herring	16	116	2	7.3	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob Godfrey	24	265	2	11.0	57
Davon Wells	29	262	2	9.0	51
Tyler Griffin (Tr)	8	193	1	24.1	40
Javon Campbell	8	176	1	22.0	44

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wydett Williams	90	4	1	1	4
Carl Glass Jr.	78	4	2	2	0
Travor Randle	63	4	1	2	8
Carl Fauntroy Jr.	49	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Pullen	41	6	4	5	1
Tristan Shorter	16	4	3	3	1
Kevontay Wells	46	10	3	5	0
Carl Glass Jr.	78	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Travor Randle	63	4	1	2	8
Wydett Williams	90	4	1	1	4
Carl Fauntroy Jr.	49	1	0	1	4

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4