Central Arkansas at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Central Arkansas Bears at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State 34 - Central Arkansas: 31

Bears (0 - 1) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 31 - 34 (31 - 34 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ ARST -10)
UCA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCA Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Central Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Central Arkansas at Arkansas State	-2.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Arkansas's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCA		0%	31	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	34	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.8	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	32.2	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCA Offense	1	31	31	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
ARST Defense	13	32.2	27.2	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCA Defense	1	34	34	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
ARST Offense	13	25.8	29	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Central Arkansas	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)

Central Arkansas's Power Ratings
Central Arkansas's Power Rating: #NR
Central Arkansas's Offense Rating: #NR
Central Arkansas's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Central Arkansas's 2024 Expected Record: -
Central Arkansas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Central Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Central Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas: Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas: Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Central Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 34 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Central Arkansas's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Central Arkansas 31
Arkansas State 31

Total Points: 62

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Arkansas State	34	Central Arkansas	31	Arkansas State
2021	09/04	Arkansas State	40	Central Arkansas	21	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -13.5	Arkansas State	64.0	Under
2020	10/10	Arkansas State	50	Central Arkansas	27	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -15.5	Arkansas State	56.0	Over
2016	09/24	Arkansas State	23	Central Arkansas	28	Central Arkansas	Arkansas State -15.5	Central Arkansas	0
2011	09/24	Arkansas State	53	Central Arkansas	24	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	4	2	1 Overs
Central Arkansas	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#NR) Central Arkansas Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Central Arkansas Highlights

Central Arkansas Deficiencies
Central Arkansas Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ARST	UCA
OverallOver	#73	—
OffenseOff	#67	—
DefenseDef	#100	—
Special TeamsST	#64	—
PassingPass	#37	—
RushingRush	#71	—
Run BlockRBLK	#23	—
Pass BlockPBLK	#97	—
Route RunningWR Rt	#74	—
TacklingTkl	#112	—
Run DefenseR Def	#99	—
Pass Rush DefPRush	#67	—
Coverage DefCov	#98	—

Rematch from Week 1
()
Arkansas State won vs Central Arkansas this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Central Arkansas last year (34-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCA | ARST
Depth Chart: UCA | ARST
Rosters: UCA | ARST

(#91) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Record at home: 5 - 1 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)

Central Arkansas's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Central Arkansas's Full Roster

Central Arkansas's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL
Jace Benesch	14	0
Dude Person	13	1
Daylon Land	10	0
Tamaurian Wilson	7	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Walker	4	3	3	1	0
Ashtyn Williams	3	1	1	0	0
Jace Benesch	14	0	0	0	0
Mark Dorsey	0	0	0	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Mark Dorsey	0	0	2
Dillon Williams	6	0	2
LJ Hewitt	4	1	2

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4