Central Arkansas at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview
 
Bears (0 - 1) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 6 - 61 (6 - 61 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -6.5  (SP+ ARST -10)
UCA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Central Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Central Arkansas at Arkansas State-2.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Arkansas's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7 Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.565.5W 28 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Arkansas State at Michigan+22.047.5L 18 - 28UY
Sat 9/21 Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.552.0L 7 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.562.5W 18 - 16UY
Sat 10/12 Arkansas State at Texas State+13.566.0L 9 - 41UN
Sat 10/19 Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.057.0W 44 - 28OY
Sat 10/26 Arkansas State vs Troy-8.550.0W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.060.0L 19 - 55ON
Sat 11/16 Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.560.0W 27 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.051.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/30 Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.558.5L 32 - 40ON
Thu 12/26 Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.554.5W 38 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCA0%60%000%000%610%0%0000
ARST#81 (.17)42% (73)25.243% (71)3.12 (65)14841% (80)2253.21 (114)#110 (.25)42% (72)27.444% (80)41% (59)4.05 (92)60.911.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCA Offense1660%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ARST Defense1327.427.242.3%4.051.2 - - - - - 50%49%44%41%15%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCA Defense161610%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ARST Offense1325.22941.6%3.211203741482254.250%49%43%41%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Central Arkansas10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arkansas State1326:1719.836%35%6.260.911.26.21.8430.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCA Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ARST Defense1350% (65)44% (80) - - - - .17 (88)3.09 (66)85% (124)10% (71)1.01 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCA Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ARST Offense1350% (72)43% (71)35.3148.24.220 (61).16 (66)3.12 (65)69% (104)9% (58)1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCA Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ARST Defense1349% (73)41% (59) - - - - - - 8 (100).34 (105)1.6 (59)31% (83)24% (11).3 (66)5% (111)2.2 (116)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCA Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ARST Offense1349% (65)41% (80)1628.5225.57.914.117 (85)9 (40).24 (83)1.7 (40)31% (59)31% (68).28 (88)6% (87)2.1 (53)

Central Arkansas's Power Ratings
Central Arkansas's Power Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Offense Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Central Arkansas's 2024 Expected Record: -
Central Arkansas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Central Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas:    Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Arkansas:    Arkansas State: -9.9




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33  #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48  #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18  #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00  #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9  #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Central Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 6 PPG
Offense on Road: 6
Defense: 61 PPG
Defense on Road: 61

Central Arkansas's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 44
Central Arkansas 17

Projected Total Points: 61
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/31Arkansas State34Central Arkansas31
202109/04Arkansas State40Central Arkansas21Arkansas State -13.5Arkansas State64.0Under
202010/10Arkansas State50Central Arkansas27Arkansas State -15.5Arkansas State56.0Over
201609/24Arkansas State23Central Arkansas28Arkansas State -15.5Central Arkansas0
201109/24Arkansas State53Central Arkansas24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State421 Overs
Central Arkansas111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 41 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#) UCA at (#91) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCAARST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #91
SP+SP+NR #104
Perf GradeGradeNR #102
OffenseOffNR #82
DefenseDefNR #121
Spec TeamsSTNR #76
TalentTalNR #67
Blue ChipsBC%NR #97
Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report
Central Arkansas on Offense
CategoryCat
UCA OffARST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #121
SuccessSucNR #72
ExplosiveExpNR #62
PPAPPANR #110
PowerPwrNR #124
SP+SP+NR #119
Pts POPPONR #92
HavocHavNR #103
Central Arkansas Run Game
CategoryCat
UCA OffARST Def
Run GameRunNR #124
Run SuccessRSucNR #80
Run ExplRExpNR #78
PPAExpNR #88
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #66
Stuff RateStuffNR #71
TackleTak -  #128
Central Arkansas Pass Game
CategoryCat
UCA OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNR #120
Pass SuccessPSucNR #59
Pass ExplPExlNR #59
PPAExpNR #105
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #78
F7 HavocF7NR #71
DB HavocDBNR #111
Arkansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARST OffUCA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #82NR
SuccessSuc #73NR
ExplosiveExp #35NR
PPAPPA #81NR
PowerPwr #62NR
SP+SP+ #87NR
Pts POPPO #114NR
HavocHav #69NR
Arkansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARST OffUCA Def
Run GameRun #101NR
Run SuccessRSuc #71NR
Run ExplRExp #43NR
PPAExp #66NR
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #65NR
Stuff RateStuff #70NR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatARST OffUCA Def
Pass GamePass #45NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #80NR
Pass ExplPExl #40NR
PPAExp #83NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #113NR
F7 HavocF7 #58NR
DB HavocDB #87NR
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UCA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
()
Arkansas State won vs Central Arkansas this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Central Arkansas in 2024 (34-31)

  
UCA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Central Arkansas's Full Roster

UCA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jace Benesch140000
Dude Person131000
Daylon Land100000
Tamaurian Wilson70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Walker43310
Ashtyn Williams31100
Jace Benesch140000
Mark Dorsey00002
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mark Dorsey00002
Dillon Williams60002
LJ Hewitt41002

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor25942062%278316106.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)142167%163307.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zak Wallace154721114.757
Ja'Quez Cross11563825.549
Jaylen Raynor13738732.840
Devin Spencer4020605.223
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker691053715.379
Courtney Jackson42494211.844
Reagan Ealy23262011.422
Adam Jones21255312.146

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)9810211
Justin Parks966033
Charles Willekes929123
Trevian Thomas791004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Jones257440
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
Ian Jeffries215450
Noah Collins (Tr)265220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dontay Joyner501017
Websley Etienne562005
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)191004