Tulsa at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -9.5 (65.5) (-300) Open: -7.0 | 65.5
Arkansas State 28 - Tulsa: 24

Golden Hurricane (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kevin Wilson (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 25 - 43 (21 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas State -17 (SP+ ARST -11)
Projected Score: TLSA: 24 - ARST: 41 (65)
ARST Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TLSA Travel: 296 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TLSA Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Tulsa vs Northwestern State	-37.5	55.5	W 62 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Tulsa at Arkansas State	+9.5	65.5	L 24 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Tulsa vs Oklahoma State	+17.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/21	Tulsa at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	56.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Tulsa at North Texas	+7.0	65.5	L 20 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/5	Tulsa vs Army	+13.5	50.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Tulsa at Temple	+3.5	51.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/26	Tulsa vs UTSA	+9.5	52.5	W 46 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Tulsa at UAB	+2.5	57.5	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/14	Tulsa vs East Carolina	+16.0	63.5	L 31 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Tulsa at South Florida	+17.5	60.0	L 30 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/30	Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic	+2.5	57.5	L 16 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)	25	35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)	42.5	38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)	25.8	43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)	32.2	51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#124 (.06)	34% (131)		35% (128)	2.88 (97)	151	33% (126)	239	3.54 (100)	#127 (.31)	42% (75)		38% (23)	46% (115)	4.7 (130)	51	1.9	1.3
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	25	21.3	34.1%	3.54	1.9	20	390	151	239	4	47%	53%	35%	33%	18%	.06
ARST Defense	13	32.2	27.2	48%	4.62	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	51%	44%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	42.5	40.3	42.2%	4.7	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	46%	15%	.31
ARST Offense	13	25.8	29	41%	3.96	1.3	20	357	148	210	4.3	48%	52%	43%	39%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	29:44	20.4	37%	32%	5.9	51	1.9	1.3	6.6	1.5	3	28.9
Arkansas State	13	26:56	20.3	40%	75%	5.1	47.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.4	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	47% (93)	35% (128)	37.5	151.4	4	11 (116)	-.03 (125)	2.88 (97)	74% (65)	12% (110)	0.9 (102)
ARST Defense	13	52% (84)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	.28 (131)	3.45 (127)	73% (65)	9% (82)	1.02 (85)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	48% (40)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	.11 (65)	2.82 (40)	69% (42)	11% (42)	1.2 (130)
ARST Offense	13	48% (83)	43% (84)	34.8	147.8	4.3	16 (90)	.12 (72)	3.01 (77)	73% (71)	9% (48)	0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	53% (43)	33% (126)	20.7	36.4	238.6	6.6	11.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.16 (104)	1.8 (21)	34% (116)	22% (131)	.17 (118)	6% (77)	2.2 (16)
ARST Defense	13	48% (52)	44% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.35 (115)	1.7 (103)	29% (106)	32% (89)	.51 (125)	6% (74)	2.3 (122)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	52% (97)	46% (115)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.51 (131)	1.9 (133)	32% (64)	33% (100)	.45 (118)	4% (130)	2.3 (132)
ARST Offense	13	52% (49)	39% (96)	19.6	31.6	209.6	6.6	10.7	17 (79)	9 (48)	.21 (90)	1.5 (88)	31% (67)	32% (55)	.39 (42)	8% (115)	2 (97)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -26.23 #132
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 19.20 #127
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Tulsa's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Tulsa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6 #128
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -26.23 Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -20.6 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 42.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.3

Tulsa's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 41
Tulsa 24

Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 38
Tulsa 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 34
Tulsa 27

Total Points: 61

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Arkansas State	28	Tulsa	24	Arkansas State -9.5	Tulsa	65.5	Under
2021	09/25	Tulsa	41	Arkansas State	34	Tulsa -14.5	Arkansas State	65.0	Over
2018	09/15	Tulsa	20	Arkansas State	29	Tulsa -2	Arkansas State	71.0	Under
2003	09/20	Tulsa	54	Arkansas State	7
2002	09/07	Arkansas State	21	Tulsa	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	3	2	1 Overs
Tulsa	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	3 - 0	0 - 0	3 - 0

(#132) TLSA at (#91) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TLSA	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#132	#91
SP+SP+	#128	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#102
OffenseOff	#118	#82
DefenseDef	#133	#121
Spec TeamsST	#119	#76
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#97

Tulsa Notes(12/8) Hired HC Tre Lamb (ETSU/Gar Web)
(11/24) HC Wilson fired, WR coach Ryan Switzer in
(11/4) Wilson is 3-10 in AAC play, 7-14 overall
(11/3) Killed by UAB? Def torched 400+ pass? Run awful
(10/28) Down 35-7, season saving comeback vs UTSA
(10/20) L to Temple after Bye? QB meh, Rgame abysmal
(10/20) Pass D torched by Temple for 300+, QBs awful
(10/20) Not sure what plan is or level of give a shit
(9/25) Even with LT, 13 flags killers, forced 3 TOs in OT W
(7/30) New QB Francis got PT LY, backups better upside
(7/30) Def was awful LY, returns little, need portal adds
(7/30) Is HC Wilson still a prick? OC is Spurrier Jr.
Tulsa Injury Report

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Tulsa on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#121
SuccessSuc	#131	#124
ExplosiveExp	#27	#91
PPAPPA	#124	#126
PowerPwr	#125	#124
SP+SP+	#105	#119
Pts POPPO	#100	#127
HavocHav	#105	#80

Tulsa Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#105	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#128	#131
Run ExplRExp	#102	#85
PPAExp	#125	#131
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#97	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#76	#91
TackleTak	-	#128

Tulsa Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#126	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#103
PPAExp	#104	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#121	#78
F7 HavocF7	#110	#82
DB HavocDB	#77	#74

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TLSA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#133
SuccessSuc	#91	#75
ExplosiveExp	#102	#133
PPAPPA	#81	#127
PowerPwr	#62	#127
SP+SP+	#87	#129
Pts POPPO	#63	#130
HavocHav	#80	#82

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#101	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#23
Run ExplRExp	#99	#130
PPAExp	#72	#65
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#23
TackleTak	-	#130

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#115
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#133
PPAExp	#90	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#44
F7 HavocF7	#48	#42
DB HavocDB	#115	#130

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Arkansas State -9.5 (65.5)
Arkansas State won vs Tulsa this year (28-24)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Tulsa last year (28-24)

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kirk Francis	149	253	59%	1585	9	6	6.3
Cooper Legas (Tr)	87	162	54%	1144	12	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	87	402	4	4.6	77
Viron Ellison Jr.	62	353	1	5.7	32
Bill Jackson	67	319	0	4.8	37
Lloyd Avant	76	259	1	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	70	822	6	11.7	74
Joseph Williams	30	588	5	19.6	72
Luke Mcgary	17	231	1	13.6	32
Zion Steptoe (Tr)	15	203	0	13.5	34

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Dayne Hodge	60	1	0	0	3
Malachi Jones	49	0	0	0	3
Zach Marcheselli (Tr)	47	10	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Owen Ostroski	35	8	2	4	0
Vontroy Malone	25	5	2	1	0
Myles Jackson (Tr)	36	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Keuan Parker	20	0	4
Buddha Garrett	38	1	3
Dayne Hodge	60	1	3

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4