Arkansas State at Georgia State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (5:00 PM EST)
Georgia State -2.5 (60.0) (-135) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 27 - Georgia State: 20 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
GAST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -9 (SP+ ARST -8)
Projected Score: ARST: 33 - GAST: 24 (56)
GAST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 385 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dell McGee (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia State at Georgia Tech	+20.5	57.0	L 12 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/7	Georgia State vs Chattanooga	-9.5	51.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia State vs Vanderbilt	+8.5	45.5	W 36 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia State vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Georgia State vs Old Dominion	-3.0	53.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/17	Georgia State at Marshall	+9.5	51.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Georgia State at App State	+7.5	59.0	L 26 - 33	U	Y
Fri 11/1	Georgia State at UConn	+7.0	48.0	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Georgia State at James Madison	+14.5	53.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-2.5	60.0	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Georgia State at Texas State	+23.0	59.5	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina	-0.5	52.5	L 27 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
GAST	#68 (.19)	42% (72)	19.8	40% (105)	2.84 (112)	188	44% (41)	206	3.92 (65)	#94 (.22)	42% (68)	37.8	40% (43)	45% (111)	3.95 (83)	57.5	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
GAST Defense	13	37.8	30.3	42.1%	3.95	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	45%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
GAST Offense	13	19.8	21.5	41.6%	3.92	1.2	20	394	188	206	4.8	55%	44%	40%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
Georgia State	13	29:26	19.5	46%	47%	6.4	57.5	1.2	1.3	5.5	2	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
GAST Defense	13	47% (25)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.15 (72)	3.05 (56)	63% (19)	10% (63)	1.06 (95)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
GAST Offense	13	55% (29)	40% (105)	39.3	188.1	4.8	25 (37)	.15 (74)	2.84 (112)	78% (30)	11% (89)	1.16 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
GAST Defense	13	52% (106)	45% (111)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.37 (113)	1.6 (76)	33% (55)	31% (89)	.42 (114)	4% (122)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
GAST Offense	13	44% (104)	44% (41)	19.2	28.2	205.5	7.3	10.7	20 (70)	7 (21)	.31 (61)	1.5 (91)	31% (45)	33% (47)	.37 (58)	4% (14)	2.1 (38)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Georgia State: -17.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Georgia State: -17.9

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -17.635 #124
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 14.80 #108
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 18.69 #126
2024 Talent Rating: 269.00 #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Georgia State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #123
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 33
Georgia State 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Georgia State	20	Arkansas State	27	Georgia State -2.5	Arkansas State	60.0	Under
2021	11/20	Georgia State	28	Arkansas State	20	Georgia State -15.5	Arkansas State	66.0	Under
2020	10/15	Arkansas State	59	Georgia State	52	Arkansas State -3.5	Arkansas State	72.5	Over
2019	10/05	Georgia State	52	Arkansas State	38	Arkansas State -6.5	Georgia State	69.0	Over
2018	10/18	Arkansas State	51	Georgia State	35	Arkansas State -13.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2016	11/03	Georgia State	16	Arkansas State	31	Arkansas State -2	Arkansas State	48.0	Under
2015	10/31	Arkansas State	48	Georgia State	34	Arkansas State -18.5	Georgia State	57.5	Over
2014	10/11	Georgia State	10	Arkansas State	52	Arkansas State -13.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas State	35	Georgia State	33	Arkansas State -23	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	2	3	4 Overs
Arkansas State	7	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 6	2 - 4	1 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 6	6 - 3	2 - 1	4 - 2

(#91) ARST at (#124) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#91	#124
SP+SP+	#104	#123
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#120
OffenseOff	#82	#111
DefenseDef	#121	#120
Spec TeamsST	#76	#52
TalentTal	#67	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#74

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Georgia State Notes(11/25) Huge W vs Tex St, Off 500+ yds, Def 4 TOs
(11/18) Fight w/ Ark St, Rgame awful, QB great, R D awful
(11/3) Run Def mauled by UConn, Off 2 TOs cost bad
(10/17) QB Gibson OK, have some RB's (Brock/Dukes)
(10/17) Run D mauled by Marshall, 295 yds, 8 ypc
(10/13) Run Def mauled by Old D. Rgame ugly, a theme
(9/28) Run Def mauled by Ga South, Rgame 29 yds (1.9)
(9/14) Huge W over Vandy. 22 4th Q pts to steal W
(8/17) McGee hired v late (Feb 23), year 0 spot
(7/30) New HC McGee was RB/AHC at UGA for 8 years
(7/30) Complete roster TO: 32 in/ 36 out in Portal
(7/30) QB battle Gibson (Akron/GT) or Veilleux (Pitt)
Georgia State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#120
SuccessSuc	#73	#68
ExplosiveExp	#35	#109
PPAPPA	#81	#94
PowerPwr	#62	#126
SP+SP+	#87	#123
Pts POPPO	#114	#83
HavocHav	#69	#105

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#101	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#43
Run ExplRExp	#43	#95
PPAExp	#66	#72
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#36
TackleTak	-	#34

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#122
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#111
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#76
PPAExp	#83	#113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#90
F7 HavocF7	#58	#63
DB HavocDB	#87	#122

Georgia State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#121
SuccessSuc	#72	#72
ExplosiveExp	#41	#62
PPAPPA	#68	#110
PowerPwr	#108	#124
SP+SP+	#106	#119
Pts POPPO	#65	#92
HavocHav	#59	#103

Georgia State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#53	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#80
Run ExplRExp	#7	#78
PPAExp	#74	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

Georgia State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#91	#59
PPAExp	#61	#105
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#78
F7 HavocF7	#89	#71
DB HavocDB	#14	#111

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Georgia State -2.5 (60.0)
Arkansas State won at Georgia State this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Georgia State in 2024 (27-20)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4

GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Zach Gibson (Tr)	102	151	68%	1004	7	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Freddie Brock	151	819	8	5.4	57
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)	23	97	0	4.2	41
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ted Hurst (Tr)	56	961	9	17.2	76
Dorian Fleming	49	558	6	11.4	58
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Petey Tucker	30	324	0	10.8	29

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Kevin Sherrer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	0	1	6
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)	54	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Swint	48	10	5	1	4
Henry Bryant	30	6	4	2	1
Josiah Robinson	62	7	4	2	3
Xavier Robinson (Tr)	60	5	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Gavin Pringle	34	2	0	8
Jeremiah Johnson	69	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy	30	0	0	5