Arkansas State at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Michigan Wolverines(#23)Michigan logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -22 (47.5) (-1800)  Open: -24.0 | 45.5
Michigan 28 - Arkansas State: 18

 
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MICH 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Michigan -19   (SP+ MICH -21)

Projected Score: ARST: 15 - MICH: 34 (50)
MICH Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
ARST Travel: 578 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7 Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.565.5W 28 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Arkansas State at Michigan+22.047.5L 18 - 28UY
Sat 9/21 Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.552.0L 7 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.562.5W 18 - 16UY
Sat 10/12 Arkansas State at Texas State+13.566.0L 9 - 41UN
Sat 10/19 Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.057.0W 44 - 28OY
Sat 10/26 Arkansas State vs Troy-8.550.0W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.060.0L 19 - 55ON
Sat 11/16 Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.560.0W 27 - 20UY
Sat 11/23 Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.051.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 11/30 Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.558.5L 32 - 40ON
Thu 12/26 Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.554.5W 38 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Michigan vs Fresno State-21.048.0W 30 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan vs Texas+7.042.0L 12 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.047.5W 28 - 18UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan vs USC+4.044.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Michigan vs Minnesota-10.534.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/5 Michigan at Washington+1.539.5L 17 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan at Illinois-6.044.0L 7 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Michigan vs Michigan State-3.539.0W 24 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 Michigan vs Oregon+14.545.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Michigan at Indiana+14.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.535.5W 50 - 6OY
Sat 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State+20.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)25.843% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)32.251% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.820.741%3.961.3203571482104.348%52%43%39%16%.17
MICH Defense1319.92138.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1332.237.348%4.621.4 - - - - - 52%48%51%44%15%.31
MICH Offense132226.940.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:5620.340%75%5.147.81.31.44.51.4127.6
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1348% (83)43% (84)34.8147.84.316 (90).12 (72)3.01 (77)73% (71)9% (48)0.9 (99)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (84)51% (131) - - - - .28 (131)3.45 (127)73% (65)9% (82)1.02 (85)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1352% (49)39% (96)19.631.6209.66.610.717 (79)9 (48).21 (90)1.5 (88)31% (67)32% (55).39 (42)8% (115)2 (97)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1348% (52)44% (110) - - - - - - 14 (23).35 (115)1.7 (103)29% (106)32% (89).51 (125)6% (74)2.3 (122)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76   Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9   Michigan: 10.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 34
Arkansas State 15


Total Points: 50

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Michigan28Arkansas State18MichiganMichigan -22Arkansas State47.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan100 Overs
Arkansas State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#91) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Arkansas State has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 3 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHARST
OverallOver#17#73
OffenseOff#80#67
DefenseDef#5#100
Special TeamsST#34#64
PassingPass#100#37
RushingRush#41#71
Run BlockRBLK#55#23
Pass BlockPBLK#77#97
Route RunningWR Rt#82#74
TacklingTkl#9#112
Run DefenseR Def#2#99
Pass Rush DefPRush#1#67
Coverage DefCov#57#98

Rematch from Week 3
Michigan -22.0 (47.5)
Michigan won vs Arkansas State this year (28-18)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Arkansas State last year (28-18)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | MICH
Depth Chart: ARST | MICH
Rosters: ARST | MICH
(#43) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.18 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has lost 1 straight
Michigan has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 2 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW

Michigan Highlights
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan has a really good defense (#65)
Michigan has a good run defense (#59)
Michigan Defensive Line is very good (#68)
Michigan Secondary is very good (#34)
Michigan commits very few Penalties (#49)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan offense is really bad (#99)
Michigan offense is not Explosive (#10)
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor25942062%278316106.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)142167%163307.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zak Wallace154721114.757
Ja'Quez Cross11563825.549
Jaylen Raynor13738732.840
Devin Spencer4020605.223
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker691053715.379
Courtney Jackson42494211.844
Reagan Ealy23262011.422
Adam Jones21255312.146

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)9810211
Justin Parks966033
Charles Willekes929123
Trevian Thomas791004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Jones257440
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
Ian Jeffries215450
Noah Collins (Tr)265220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dontay Joyner501017
Websley Etienne562005
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)191004

Michigan's OC Kirk Campbell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Jack Tuttle305060%306126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalel Mullings185948125.163
Donovan Edwards12858944.641
Alex Orji5726914.729
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Colston Loveland56582510.436
Tyler Morris23248210.828
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)664152
Mason Graham467431
Makari Paige451004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josaiah Stewart3313970
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Mason Graham467431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
Quinten Johnson431005