Arkansas State at UL Monroe - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at UL Monroe Warhawks

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (5:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Monroe -1.0 (55.5) (-120) Open: -1.5 | 58.5
Arkansas State 34 - UL Monroe: 24 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ULM is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -10 (SP+ ARST -15)
Projected Score: ARST: 33 - ULM: 23 (55)
ULM Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
ARST Travel: 243 miles

Warhawks (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Bowden (10 - 17)
Avg Score : 17 - 35 (21 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.7 - 9.3 (#131)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
ULM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

UL Monroe's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UL Monroe vs Army	+8.5	47.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UL Monroe vs Lamar	-26.0	48.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/16	UL Monroe at Texas A&M	+36.5	53.5	L 3 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30	UL Monroe vs App State	+13.5	50.5	L 40 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/7	UL Monroe vs South Alabama	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/14	UL Monroe at Texas State	+18.5	64.5	L 20 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/21	UL Monroe at Georgia Southern	+16.5	60.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/28	UL Monroe vs Arkansas State	-1.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	UL Monroe at Southern Miss	+3.0	56.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	UL Monroe vs Troy	+23.5	47.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	UL Monroe at Ole Miss	+35.5	59.5	L 3 - 35	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UL Monroe at Louisiana	+12.5	53.0	L 21 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	27.1	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	30.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
ULM	#124 (.06)	36% (128)	17.3	40% (97)	3.18 (56)	146	32% (133)	175	2.61 (130)	#107 (.24)	46% (117)	34.9	44% (78)	49% (132)	4.1 (97)	53.6	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
ULM	#94 (.15)	37% (121)		40% (102)	2.93 (87)	173	33% (128)	135	3.33 (117)	#89 (.2)	47% (120)		53% (134)	39% (53)	4.12 (99)	43.3	1.3	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	27.1	20.7	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
ULM Defense	12	34.9	33.7	45.6%	4.1	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	49%	15%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	30.4	36.3	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
ULM Offense	12	17.3	21	35.6%	2.61	1.5	16	321	146	175	4.2	49%	50%	40%	32%	19%	.06

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
UL Monroe	12	27:02	15.8	32%	35%	5.9	53.6	1.5	1.6	6.1	2	2	31

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
ULM Defense	12	53% (107)	44% (78)	-	-	-	-	.11 (42)	3.06 (58)	75% (78)	11% (55)	0.9 (26)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
ULM Offense	12	49% (78)	40% (97)	34.6	146.3	4.2	7 (131)	.11 (89)	3.18 (56)	74% (63)	12% (100)	0.92 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
ULM Defense	12	46% (25)	49% (132)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.48 (132)	1.7 (97)	32% (68)	39% (130)	.52 (129)	5% (121)	2 (48)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
ULM Offense	12	50% (59)	32% (133)	14.8	28.8	174.8	6.1	11.9	15 (96)	13 (97)	.03 (131)	1.7 (22)	36% (124)	21% (133)	.12 (124)	7% (111)	2.3 (9)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 UL Monroe: -17.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 UL Monroe: -22.5

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -17.47 #132
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UL Monroe's 2023 Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30
UL Monroe's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 33
UL Monroe 23

Total Points: 55

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.7

UL Monroe's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -3	Arkansas State	51.5	Under
2023	10/28	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	34	Arkansas State	Louisiana Monroe -1.0	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2022	10/01	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	28	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	58.5	Over
2021	11/13	UL Monroe	24	Arkansas State	27	Arkansas State	Louisiana Monroe -3	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2020	12/05	Arkansas State	48	UL Monroe	15	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -20.5	Arkansas State	71.5	Under
2019	11/02	UL Monroe	41	Arkansas State	48	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -1	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2018	11/17	Arkansas State	31	UL Monroe	17	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -7.5	Arkansas State	68.0	Under
2017	11/25	UL Monroe	50	Arkansas State	67	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -8.5	Arkansas State	69.0	Over
2016	10/29	Arkansas State	51	UL Monroe	10	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -17	Arkansas State	55.0	Over
2015	11/14	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	59	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -12.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/04	Arkansas State	28	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -10	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/09	UL Monroe	14	Arkansas State	42	Arkansas State	Louisiana Monroe -3.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	11/08	Arkansas State	45	UL Monroe	23	Arkansas State
2011	10/08	UL Monroe	19	Arkansas State	24	Arkansas State
2010	09/18	Arkansas State	34	UL Monroe	20	Arkansas State
2009	10/13	UL Monroe	16	Arkansas State	10	UL Monroe
2008	10/11	Arkansas State	37	UL Monroe	29	Arkansas State
2007	10/06	UL Monroe	30	Arkansas State	13	UL Monroe
2006	10/07	Arkansas State	10	UL Monroe	6	Arkansas State
2005	10/01	UL Monroe	31	Arkansas State	27	UL Monroe
2004	09/25	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	28	Arkansas State
2003	10/04	Arkansas State	44	UL Monroe	41	Arkansas State
2002	09/21	UL Monroe	21	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State
2001	11/17	Arkansas State	7	UL Monroe	16	UL Monroe

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UL Monroe	4	0	6 Overs
Arkansas State	20	12	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	6 - 6	6 - 3	0 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 6	3 - 0	3 - 6

(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Arkansas State has lost 2 straight
Arkansas State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ULM	ARST
OverallOver	#107	#47
OffenseOff	#110	#50
DefenseDef	#90	#51
Special TeamsST	#56	#91
PassingPass	#105	#78
RushingRush	#80	#50
Run BlockRBLK	#90	#22
Pass BlockPBLK	#58	#80
Route RunningWR Rt	#98	#44
TacklingTkl	#36	#29
Run DefenseR Def	#72	#64
Pass Rush DefPRush	#46	#87
Coverage DefCov	#107	#14

Rematch from Week 9
UL Monroe -1.0 (55.5)
Arkansas State won at UL Monroe this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe last year (28-21)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2023 (34-24)
Arkansas State beat UL Monroe in 2022 (45-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Malone Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | ULM
Depth Chart: ARST | ULM
Rosters: ARST | ULM

(#132) UL Monroe Info
Power Rating: -17.47 #132
Offense Rating: 6.82 #131
Defense Rating: 13.52 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.5 #132
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #130
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 2.70 - 9.30

UL Monroe has lost 5 straight
UL Monroe has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

UL Monroe Highlights
UL Monroe does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#98)

UL Monroe Deficiencies
UL Monroe has a really bad Offense
UL Monroe offense is really bad (#127)
UL Monroe offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#75)
UL Monroe pass game is really bad (#121)
UL Monroe offense is bad on 3rd Downs
UL Monroe Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
UL Monroe Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
UL Monroe has a bad defense (#130)

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

UL Monroe's OC Matt Kubik

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jiya Wright	107	204	53%	1246	10	8	6.1
Blake Murphy	53	104	51%	721	4	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hunter Smith	94	507	3	5.4	62
Isaiah Woullard	98	447	1	4.6	44
Bennett Galloway	44	287	0	6.5	41
Jiya Wright	99	264	2	2.7	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyrone Howell	49	590	7	12.0	46
Dariyan Wiley	24	400	2	16.7	68
Devaughn Mortimer	15	291	0	19.4	54
NyNy Davis (Tr)	28	222	2	7.9	51

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

UL Monroe's DC Vic Koenning

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton	79	3	1	3	0
Max Harris	79	1	0	0	2
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
JaTerious Evans	62	6	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adin Huntington	62	16	9	4	2
Kenard Snyder	60	15	6	3	2
Dylan Howell	34	4	3	1	2
James Smith	11	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Watts	50	1	1	6
Car'lin Vigers	54	0	0	3
Lucius Tillery	30	0	0	3