Arkansas State at Louisiana - 2022 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Saturday, October 22nd 2022 (5:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana -6 (51.0)
Louisiana 38 - Arkansas State: 18 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
ARST is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -10 (SP+ ULL -15)
Projected Score: ARST: 26 - ULL: 27 (53)
ULL Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
ARST Travel: 397 miles

Ragin' Cajuns (6 - 7) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Michael Desormeaux (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (30 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
ULL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Louisiana's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Louisiana vs SE Louisiana	-13.5	61.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Louisiana vs Eastern Michigan	-11.0	56.0	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Louisiana at Rice	-11.5	52.0	L 21 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/24	Louisiana at UL Monroe	-9.5	51.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/1	Louisiana vs South Alabama	+8.5	47.0	L 17 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/12	Louisiana at Marshall	+10.5	45.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Louisiana vs Arkansas State	-6.0	51.0	W 38 - 18	O	Y
Thu 10/27	Louisiana at Southern Miss	-2.5	42.5	L 24 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/5	Louisiana vs Troy	+3.5	42.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/10	Louisiana vs Georgia Southern	-3.5	63.0	W 36 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Louisiana at Florida State	+25.0	52.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/26	Louisiana at Texas State	-5.0	44.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
Fri 12/23	Louisiana vs Houston	+5.5	56.5	L 16 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2
ULL	.24	46%	26	47%	3.14	194	44%	219	4.13	.18	39%	29.2	43%	36%	3.19	49	0.6	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ULL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17
ULL Defense	14	29.2	27.2	38.9%	3.19	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	36%	20%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35
ULL Offense	14	26	30.3	45.5%	4.13	0.6	21	413	194	219	4.8	55%	45%	47%	44%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6
Louisiana	14	30:52	21.4	37%	59%	5.3	49	0.6	1.9	6.1	2.8	1	30.9

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79
ULL Defense	14	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.34	68%	12%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3
ULL Offense	14	55%	47%	40.4	193.9	4.8	34	.23	3.14	68%	11%	1.04

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2
ULL Defense	14	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.18	1.8	37%	32%	.42	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3
ULL Offense	14	45%	44%	17.6	28.9	218.6	7.6	12.4	22	4	.26	1.5	29%	33%	.41	4%	2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Louisiana: 3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -13.0 Louisiana: 2.0

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: 3.5 NR
Louisiana's Offense Rating: NR
Louisiana's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisiana's 2022 Expected Record: -
Louisiana's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #64
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #95
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #32

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisiana 27
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 53

Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Louisiana's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/20	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	34	Arkansas State -2.5	Louisiana	54.5	Over
2024	11/09	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	19	Louisiana -14.0	Louisiana	60.0	Over
2023	11/04	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	17	Louisiana -9	Arkansas State	60.0	Under
2022	10/22	Louisiana	38	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	51.0	Over
2021	10/21	Arkansas State	27	Louisiana	28	Louisiana -17	Arkansas State	70.0	Under
2020	11/07	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana -13.5	Arkansas State	69.5	Under
2019	10/17	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana	37	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	69.0	Under
2018	10/27	Louisiana	47	Arkansas State	43	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	69.0	Over
2017	10/19	Arkansas State	47	Louisiana	3	Arkansas State -12	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2016	11/26	Louisiana	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -6.5	Louisiana	50.5	Under
2015	10/20	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/21	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	40	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	59.0	Over
2013	10/22	Arkansas State	7	Louisiana	23	Louisiana -6.5	Louisiana	0
2012	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	50
2011	11/12	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	21
2010	09/11	Louisiana	31	Arkansas State	24
2009	11/07	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana	21
2008	10/18	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	23
2007	10/13	Arkansas State	52	Louisiana	21
2006	11/25	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	13
2005	10/13	Arkansas State	39	Louisiana	36
2004	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	24
2002	11/09	Louisiana	13	Arkansas State	10
2001	10/13	Arkansas State	26	Louisiana	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisiana	16	8	6 Overs
Arkansas State	8	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	18 - 6	9 - 4	4 - 2	5 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 18	4 - 9	2 - 5	2 - 4

(#) ARST at (#) ULL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	ULL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#64
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#53
OffenseOff	#91	#77
DefenseDef	#108	#22
Spec TeamsST	#55	#117
TalentTal	#88	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Louisiana Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#22
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Run GameRun	#112	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisiana on Offense


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#77	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#95	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisiana Run Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#57	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Louisiana Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ULL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cajun Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Louisiana -6.0 (51.0)
Louisiana won vs Arkansas State this year (38-18)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Arkansas State last year (34-30)
Louisiana beat Arkansas State in 2024 (55-19)
Arkansas State beat Louisiana in 2023 (37-17)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ULL's OC Tim Leger (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC LaMar Morgan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD