Arkansas State at Ohio State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, September 10th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -44.5 (68.5)
Ohio State 45 - Arkansas State: 12

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -24.5 (SP+ OSU -44)
Projected Score: ARST: 16 - OSU: 31 (47)
OSU Win prob: 100% | Cover: 53%
ARST Travel: 506 miles, 1 hrs behind

Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (34 - 4)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Ohio State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-17.0	58.5	W 21 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/10	Ohio State vs Arkansas State	-44.5	68.5	W 45 - 12	U	N
Sat 9/17	Ohio State vs Toledo	-34.5	63.0	W 77 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Ohio State vs Wisconsin	-19.0	56.5	W 52 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-39.0	58.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 10/8	Ohio State at Michigan State	-27.0	64.5	W 49 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Ohio State vs Iowa	-29.5	50.0	W 54 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Ohio State at Penn State	-15.5	60.5	W 44 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/5	Ohio State at Northwestern	-37.5	55.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/12	Ohio State vs Indiana	-40.0	62.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Ohio State at Maryland	-26.5	62.5	W 43 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/26	Ohio State vs Michigan	-9.0	56.0	L 23 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/31	Ohio State vs Georgia	+5.5	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2
OSU	.47	53%	33.4	48%	3.29	180	57%	381	4.88	.18	43%	9.3	43%	44%	3.66	59.2	0.8	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17
OSU Defense	13	9.3	7.4	43.4%	3.66	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	43%	44%	19%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35
OSU Offense	13	33.4	41.6	53.5%	4.88	0.8	27	561	180	381	5.5	41%	59%	48%	57%	11%	.47

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6
Ohio State	13	29:22	26.8	52%	58%	6.5	59.2	0.8	1.6	6.4	2.8	4	29.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79
OSU Defense	13	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.74	75%	11%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3
OSU Offense	13	41%	48%	32.5	180.3	5.5	24	.23	3.29	67%	6%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2
OSU Defense	13	54%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.25	1.5	31%	34%	.29	8%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3
OSU Offense	13	59%	57%	26.8	38	380.9	10	14.2	46	8	.63	1.6	26%	40%	.68	4%	2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Ohio State: 18.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -13.0 Ohio State: 31.1

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 18.05 NR
Ohio State's Offense Rating: NR
Ohio State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ohio State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Ohio State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.1 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.1 #4
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.7 #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 31
Arkansas State 16

Projected Total Points: 47

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2022 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/10	Ohio State	45	Arkansas State	12	Ohio State -44.5	Arkansas State	68.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	1	0	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) ARST at (#) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	OSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#1
OffenseOff	#91	#1
DefenseDef	#108	#6
Spec TeamsST	#55	#92
TalentTal	#88	#3
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Ohio State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#15
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#112	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#33

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#7
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ohio State on Offense


CategoryCat	OSU Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#4	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ohio State Run Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#13	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Ohio State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'22 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Ohio State -44.5 (68.5)
Ohio State won vs Arkansas State this year (45-12)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

OSU's OC Kevin Wilson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD