Louisiana at Arkansas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Thursday, October 21st 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana -17 (70.0)
Louisiana 28 - Arkansas State: 27 (Sun Belt)

Ragin' Cajuns (13 - 1) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (30 - 12)
Avg Score : 26 - 29 (24 - 33 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: -11 (SP+ ULL -26.5)
Projected Score: ULL: 26 - ARST: 29 (55)
ULL Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
ULL Travel: 397 miles

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULL Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisiana's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Louisiana at Texas	+8.5	58.0	L 18 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/11	Louisiana vs Nicholls	-26.0	65.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Thu 9/16	Louisiana vs Ohio	-18.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Louisiana at Georgia Southern	-14.5	54.5	W 28 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	Louisiana at South Alabama	-12.0	52.5	W 20 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/12	Louisiana vs App State	+4.5	57.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Thu 10/21	Louisiana at Arkansas State	-17.0	70.0	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/30	Louisiana vs Texas State	-21.0	58.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Thu 11/4	Louisiana vs Georgia State	-13.5	53.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/13	Louisiana at Troy	-6.5	48.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Louisiana at Liberty	+4.0	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Louisiana vs UL Monroe	-21.5	56.0	W 21 - 16	U	N
Sat 12/4	Louisiana vs App State	+2.5	52.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/18	Louisiana vs Marshall	-4.0	55.5	W 36 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisiana's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL	.25	47%	26	50%	3.38	213	43%	208	3.77	.13	43%	29.2	47%	36%	3.84	61.3	1.2	2.1
ARST	.25	43%	25.2	39%	2.82	125	46%	364	3.99	.22	42%	27.4	37%	47%	3.88	57.4	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Offense	11	26	23.8	46.9%	3.77	1.2	21	421	213	208	5.5	57%	43%	50%	43%	13%	.25
ARST Defense	11	27.4	27.2	42.2%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	47%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULL Defense	11	29.2	32.8	42.7%	3.84	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	47%	36%	14%	.13
ARST Offense	11	25.2	29	42.8%	3.99	1.5	24	490	125	364	3.6	42%	57%	39%	46%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisiana	11	28:45	21	43%	42%	6.2	61.3	1.2	2.1	4.3	1.6	4	31.6
Arkansas State	11	28:38	24.5	40%	50%	6.4	57.4	1.5	1.1	6.9	1.8	1	25.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Offense	11	57%	50%	39	213.2	5.5	25	.23	3.38	66%	8%	0.97
ARST Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.44	64%	11%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULL Defense	11	58%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.3	83%	7%	0.89
ARST Offense	11	42%	39%	34.9	125.2	3.6	7	.01	2.82	64%	9%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Offense	11	43%	43%	16.3	28	208.2	7.4	12.8	20	7	.29	1.6	30%	36%	.39	6%	2
ARST Defense	11	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.7	31%	34%	.4	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULL Defense	11	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.06	1.5	28%	27%	.13	7%	1.6
ARST Offense	11	57%	46%	25.1	42.2	364.4	8.6	14.5	39	9	.43	1.8	34%	36%	.4	7%	2

Louisiana's Power Ratings
Louisiana's Power Rating: NR
Louisiana's Offense Rating: NR
Louisiana's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisiana's 2021 Expected Record: -
Louisiana's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #47
Louisiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.3 #54
Louisiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: Arkansas State: -6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana: 8.7 Arkansas State: -17.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.45 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Louisiana Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Louisiana's 2021 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
Louisiana 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/20	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	34	Arkansas State -2.5	Louisiana	54.5	Over
2024	11/09	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	19	Louisiana -14.0	Louisiana	60.0	Over
2023	11/04	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	17	Louisiana -9	Arkansas State	60.0	Under
2022	10/22	Louisiana	38	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	51.0	Over
2021	10/21	Arkansas State	27	Louisiana	28	Louisiana -17	Arkansas State	70.0	Under
2020	11/07	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana -13.5	Arkansas State	69.5	Under
2019	10/17	Arkansas State	20	Louisiana	37	Louisiana -6	Louisiana	69.0	Under
2018	10/27	Louisiana	47	Arkansas State	43	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	69.0	Over
2017	10/19	Arkansas State	47	Louisiana	3	Arkansas State -12	Arkansas State	66.5	Under
2016	11/26	Louisiana	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -6.5	Louisiana	50.5	Under
2015	10/20	Arkansas State	37	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2014	10/21	Louisiana	55	Arkansas State	40	Arkansas State -3	Louisiana	59.0	Over
2013	10/22	Arkansas State	7	Louisiana	23	Louisiana -6.5	Louisiana	0
2012	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	50
2011	11/12	Arkansas State	30	Louisiana	21
2010	09/11	Louisiana	31	Arkansas State	24
2009	11/07	Arkansas State	18	Louisiana	21
2008	10/18	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	23
2007	10/13	Arkansas State	52	Louisiana	21
2006	11/25	Louisiana	28	Arkansas State	13
2005	10/13	Arkansas State	39	Louisiana	36
2004	10/23	Louisiana	27	Arkansas State	24
2002	11/09	Louisiana	13	Arkansas State	10
2001	10/13	Arkansas State	26	Louisiana	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	8	5	6 Overs
Louisiana	16	8	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	18 - 6	9 - 4	4 - 2	5 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 18	4 - 9	2 - 5	2 - 4

(#) ULL at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULL	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#47	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#123
OffenseOff	#13	#112
DefenseDef	#16	#129
Spec TeamsST	#33	#41
TalentTal	#96	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Louisiana Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Louisiana on Offense


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#13	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisiana Run Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#44	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

Louisiana Pass Game


CategoryCat	ULL Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#16
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Run GameRun	#110	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#108

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	ULL Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#60
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ULL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Louisiana 17.0 (70.0)
Louisiana won at Arkansas State this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana beat Arkansas State last year (34-30)
Louisiana beat Arkansas State in 2024 (55-19)
Arkansas State beat Louisiana in 2023 (37-17)

ULL's OC Michael Desormeaux (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisiana's Full Roster

ULL's DC Patrick Toney (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD