Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars
Tuesday, October 14th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL (Sun Belt)
Red Wolves (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
ARST coming off BYE
USA coming off BYE
Our Line: South Alabama -12.5 (SP+ USA -7)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - USA: 36 (59)
USA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ARST Travel: 387 miles
USA coming off BYE
Our Line: South Alabama -12.5 (SP+ USA -7)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - USA: 36 (59)
USA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ARST Travel: 387 miles
Jaguars (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (35 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (35 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
| Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State | -15.5 | 59.5 | W 42 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | +23.5 | 62.0 | L 14 - 56 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas State vs Iowa State | +21.0 | 55.5 | L 16 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas State at Kennesaw State | -6.0 | 56.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | -2.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +11.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +12.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern | -5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas State at Troy | +11 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +8 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +3 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas State at App State | +8 | |||||
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| South Alabama's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | South Alabama vs Morgan State | -28.5 | 51.5 | W 38 - 21 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | South Alabama vs Tulane | +13.5 | 51.5 | L 31 - 33 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | South Alabama at Auburn | +26.5 | 56.5 | L 15 - 31 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | -14.5 | 50.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | South Alabama at North Texas | +13 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | South Alabama at Troy | +1 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/14 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -12.5 | |||||
| Thu 10/23 | South Alabama at Georgia State | -12.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | -7 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/15 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -12 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | -2 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | South Alabama at Texas State | +6.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #108 (.09) | 41% (87) | 24 | 45% (60) | 2.62 (101) | 153 | 38% (103) | 233 | 3.65 (88) | #130 (.42) | 52% (132) | 34.7 | 52% (125) | 52% (128) | 4.61 (110) | 72 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| USA | #64 (.22) | 44% (61) | 28 | 44% (69) | 3.29 (37) | 174 | 44% (64) | 192 | 4.3 (52) | #109 (.23) | 47% (117) | 28.3 | 51% (122) | 41% (76) | 5.38 (130) | 31.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||
| USA | #5 (.34) | 50% (9) | 53% (4) | 3.57 (6) | 199 | 47% (18) | 243 | 4.66 (13) | #58 (.15) | 41% (58) | 39% (28) | 43% (96) | 3.66 (56) | 70.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 24 | 24 | 41.5% | 3.65 | 1.3 | 23 | 386 | 153 | 233 | 3.9 | 47% | 53% | 45% | 38% | 18% | .09 |
| USA Defense | 3 | 28.3 | 27 | 46.9% | 5.38 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - | - | 60% | 40% | 51% | 41% | 16% | .23 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 52% | 4.61 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 51% | 48% | 52% | 52% | 14% | .42 |
| USA Offense | 3 | 28 | 34.5 | 44.2% | 4.3 | 1.7 | 21 | 366 | 174 | 192 | 4.2 | 64% | 36% | 44% | 44% | 13% | .22 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 3 | 34:10 | 22.7 | 48% | 33% | 7.7 | 72 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 1.7 | 1 | 30.9 |
| South Alabama | 3 | 27:46 | 20.7 | 36% | 60% | 5 | 31.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 29.7 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 47% (91) | 45% (60) | 39.3 | 153.3 | 3.9 | 4 (79) | .04 (98) | 2.62 (101) | 60% (103) | 12% (112) | 0.96 (67) |
| USA Defense | 3 | 60% (122) | 51% (122) | - | - | - | - | .21 (111) | 3.12 (105) | 94% (125) | 10% (61) | 0.92 (68) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 51% (87) | 52% (125) | - | - | - | - | .31 (128) | 3.23 (113) | 100% (127) | 7% (115) | 1.06 (92) |
| USA Offense | 3 | 64% (9) | 44% (69) | 41.3 | 174.3 | 4.2 | 5 (62) | .13 (71) | 3.29 (37) | 78% (41) | 10% (93) | 0.91 (85) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 53% (45) | 38% (103) | 22.3 | 33.7 | 233 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 4 (72) | 3 (92) | .14 (105) | 1.6 (42) | 28% (47) | 30% (80) | .4 (53) | 6% (96) | 2.3 (20) |
| USA Defense | 3 | 40% (15) | 41% (76) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 (87) | .26 (88) | 1.4 (39) | 30% (92) | 32% (90) | .27 (70) | 6% (66) | 1.7 (38) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 48% (50) | 52% (128) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 (28) | .58 (129) | 1.7 (105) | 27% (122) | 36% (117) | .58 (120) | 7% (48) | 2.2 (103) |
| USA Offense | 3 | 36% (127) | 44% (64) | 16 | 21.7 | 191.7 | 8.9 | 12 | 6 (34) | 1 (23) | .37 (53) | 1.7 (23) | 26% (32) | 30% (81) | .28 (83) | 3% (31) | 2.1 (54) |
Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -20.80 South Alabama: -3.03
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.2 South Alabama: -3.3
Arkansas State: -20.80 South Alabama: -3.03
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.2 South Alabama: -3.3
South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.03 #101
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.03 #101
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7
Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7
Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Alabama 36
Arkansas State 23
Total Points: 59
South Alabama 36
Arkansas State 23
Total Points: 59
South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.5
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27
South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.5
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27
South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/05 | Arkansas State | 18 | South Alabama | 16 | Arkansas State | South Alabama -2.5 | Arkansas State | 62.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 11/11 | South Alabama | 21 | Arkansas State | 14 | South Alabama | South Alabama -14.5 | Arkansas State | 54.5 | Under |
| 2022 | 10/29 | Arkansas State | 3 | South Alabama | 31 | South Alabama | South Alabama -9 | South Alabama | 52.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 10/30 | South Alabama | 31 | Arkansas State | 13 | South Alabama | South Alabama -9.5 | South Alabama | 67.0 | Under |
| 2020 | 11/28 | Arkansas State | 31 | South Alabama | 38 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -7 | South Alabama | 63.5 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/29 | South Alabama | 34 | Arkansas State | 30 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -10.5 | South Alabama | 53.0 | Over |
| 2018 | 11/03 | Arkansas State | 38 | South Alabama | 14 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -14 | Arkansas State | 61.5 | Under |
| 2017 | 11/11 | South Alabama | 24 | Arkansas State | 19 | South Alabama | Arkansas State -12.5 | South Alabama | 55.5 | Under |
| 2016 | 10/15 | Arkansas State | 17 | South Alabama | 7 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -6 | Arkansas State | 54.5 | Under |
| 2015 | 10/13 | South Alabama | 31 | Arkansas State | 49 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -6 | Arkansas State | 58.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/08 | Arkansas State | 45 | South Alabama | 10 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -9.5 | Arkansas State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/02 | South Alabama | 16 | Arkansas State | 17 | Arkansas State | South Alabama -2.5 | Arkansas State | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/13 | Arkansas State | 36 | South Alabama | 29 | Arkansas State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 6 | 5 | 3 Overs |
| Arkansas State | 7 | 7 | 7 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 9 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 4 - 9 | 5 - 7 | 2 - 3 | 3 - 4 |
(#131) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 5 straight
Arkansas State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 5 straight
Arkansas State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | USA | ARST |
| OverallOver | #82 | #84 |
| OffenseOff | #72 | #81 |
| DefenseDef | #90 | #94 |
| Special TeamsST | #61 | #70 |
| PassingPass | #69 | #63 |
| RushingRush | #32 | #81 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #97 | #92 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #105 | #38 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #33 | #78 |
| TacklingTkl | #117 | #47 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #104 | #90 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #89 | #110 |
| Coverage DefCov | #48 | #95 |
Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: ARST | USA
Depth Chart: ARST | USA
Rosters: ARST | USA
(#101) South Alabama Info
Power Rating: -3.03 #101
Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
South Alabama has lost 5 straight
South Alabama has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
South Alabama Notes
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Running more of a balanced, pro style offense
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)
South Alabama defense does not give up big plays (#28)
South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama has a bad TO Margin (#107)
South Alabama Fumbles a Lot (#128)
South Alabama has a bad defense (#117)
South Alabama has a bad defensive line (#105)
South Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#130)
Power Rating: -3.03 #101
Offense Rating: 11.42 #76
Defense Rating: 19.18 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #93
Talent Rating: 562.00 #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.3 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
South Alabama has lost 5 straight
South Alabama has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
South Alabama Notes
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Running more of a balanced, pro style offense
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Highlights
South Alabama is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs
South Alabama does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#26)
South Alabama defense does not give up big plays (#28)
South Alabama Deficiencies
South Alabama has a bad TO Margin (#107)
South Alabama Fumbles a Lot (#128)
South Alabama has a bad defense (#117)
South Alabama has a bad defensive line (#105)
South Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#130)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 66 | 98 | 67% | 692 | 4 | 3 | 7.1 |
| Josh Flowers | 1 | 3 | 33% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 35 | 138 | 1 | 3.9 | 21 |
| Kenyon Clay (Tr) | 40 | 120 | 1 | 3.0 | 13 |
| Devin Spencer | 18 | 104 | 1 | 5.8 | 43 |
| Kameron Thomas | 8 | 38 | 0 | 4.8 | 23 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncy Cobb | 16 | 216 | 0 | 13.5 | 45 |
| Corey Rucker | 6 | 105 | 1 | 17.5 | 50 |
| Hunter Summers | 6 | 96 | 0 | 16.0 | 39 |
| Jaylen Bonelli (Tr) | 8 | 95 | 1 | 11.9 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Nelson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Barnes | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AG McGhee (Tr) | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Hassler | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cody Sigler (Tr) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Collins | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Alan Yowe | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| AG McGhee (Tr) | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nigel Nelson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Davenport | 47 | 64 | 73% | 567 | 6 | 1 | 8.9 |
| Jared Hollins | 1 | 1 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentrel Bullock | 63 | 291 | 3 | 4.6 | 20 |
| PJ Martin | 22 | 88 | 1 | 4.0 | 16 |
| Bishop Davenport | 22 | 79 | 1 | 3.6 | 16 |
| Keenan Phillips | 15 | 58 | 0 | 3.9 | 12 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Voisin | 19 | 266 | 4 | 14.0 | 65 |
| Anthony Eager | 12 | 115 | 1 | 9.6 | 34 |
| Jeremy Scott | 5 | 74 | 1 | 14.8 | 34 |
| Miller McCrumby (Tr) | 5 | 61 | 0 | 12.2 | 32 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Dozier (Tr) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius McKenzie | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christopher Wallace Jr. | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Miller | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tirrell Johnson Jr. | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominic Wiseman | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| E'Mauri Smiley | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Goodwill | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Nehemiah Chandler (Tr) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Wesley Miller | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |